Wicked opens to $114M at domestic box office; 3rd biggest opening of 2024

[Broken]

9 minutes ago, Blue Monday said:

People trying to turn this into some kind of underperformance  the constant shifting of goalposts on this website never ceases to amaze me 

Even the box office nerds are saying it's underperforming.

 

 

 

[Dante]

30 minutes ago, JO1s said:

 

uh oh the corny police is here

[Renem]

1 minute ago, Broken said:

Even the box office nerds are saying it's underperforming.

 

 

 

Get over it, lol.

Edited 3 hours ago by Renem

[JO1s]

Just now, Dante said:

 

uh oh the corny police is here

Girl I didn't try and act I was above corniness, I stan idol groups I know some of my interests are corny.

[The Music Industry]

Not bad at all Did expect a bit higher tho

[Blue Monday]

1 minute ago, Broken said:

Even the box office nerds are saying it's underperforming.

 

 

 

Oh well if the box office nerds are saying it, then I guess it's true. 

 

This movie will have legs, to what extent we do not know, but we're going into the holiday season and this will benefit from repeat viewings. If it's anything like The Greatest Showman, it could continue to hang around and add to its total week to week

[Blue Monday]

5 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

I can understand the sentiment. The film reportedly had massive pre-sales, second only to D&W. Additionally, some publications and box office analysts were predicting a domestic opening between $120M and $155M just a few weeks ago.

 

Given those expectations, the $114M opening feels somewhat underwhelming, especially since many were anticipating an overperformance similar to Barbie.

Predictions are just that: predictions. It has the third best opening of the entire year and is a musical. We are fresh off the total and utter failure that was JFad, another musical that was the sequel to a huge box office smash. The fact this opened to $100m+ and has the kind of reviews and audience score it has suggests it will have legs, and as the holidays get closer and closer people are definitely going to be looking for things to do together. Wicked will no doubt benefit from that, and if it holds as well as The Greatest Showman did it could end up with a huge run when all is said and done.  

[Just a Gay on ATRL]

I think this will have strong legs throughout the holidays. Also has strong word of mouth going for it.

[Communion]

12 minutes ago, Broken said:

Even the box office nerds are saying it's underperforming.

 

 

 

The highest rated comment on this reddit thread is a "Top 1% Commentor" pointing out how no one who was serious would claim this would do $1b and suggestions of its sales being low are just people being dishonest...?

[JBJT2786]

Yall keep talking Greatest Showman like we still in that same time period and streaming wasn't as big as it is now  Greatest Showman had near negigible drops and open super low and slowly chugged along til the end of January. It wasn't even released before Thanksgiving and its competition was a divisive star wars movie and Jumanji

 

Also Greatest Showman was a family 4 quadrant film while this is mainly catering to women and gays ( look at the stats it's over 70% women and barely any kids or teenagers saw this).

 

It's not gonna bomb ( it'll probably do well) but ya gotta not think this is the same situation.

[Space Cowboy]

16 minutes ago, Blue Monday said:

Predictions are just that: predictions. It has the third best opening of the entire year and is a musical. We are fresh off the total and utter failure that was JFad, another musical that was the sequel to a huge box office smash. The fact this opened to $100m+ and has the kind of reviews and audience score it has suggests it will have legs, and as the holidays get closer and closer people are definitely going to be looking for things to do together. Wicked will no doubt benefit from that, and if it holds as well as The Greatest Showman did it could end up with a huge run when all is said and done.  

True, I'm not saying it's underperforming, I just expected a bigger number. Just a week ago, I was confident it would make $900M–$1.1B. Now, it feels more like a $600M–$800M film.

Edited 2 hours ago by Space Cowboy

[Navyofbadgals]

This absolutely smashed way harder in the US than I expected, but that overseas number is ROUGH in comparison. Not entirely surprised as wicked is far less of a thing here locally. This is carried hard by the anglosphere but enough so that the underperformance overseas doesn't matter (that much)

[Tm4074]

WICKED is an 2h40m part 1 Broadway musical adaptation. The next biggest opening for a Broadway musical adaptation is Into The Woods which did 31M. Wicked did almost 4x that number. This is a huge success, 3rd biggest opening of the year.  It won't reach 1B but literally no Broadway adaption has come close to that number. It will probably do close to 1B with part 1 and part 2 combined which is a massive success. 

 

I was predicting Wonka numbers before box office analysts expectations got way out of hand so I'm sticking with that. Movies targeted towards women are notoriously a blind spot for analysts. They wildly overpredicted Eras Tour too with some box office nerds thinking it would gross close to 1B...like a concert movie was never going to do that lol. 

[Popboi.]

6 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

True, I'm not saying it's underperforming, I just expected a bigger number. Just a week ago, I was confident it would make $900M–$1.1B. Now, it feels more like a $600M–$800M film.

$1b was never in the reach under any type of prediction, if anything the realistic ones were around $700m as Wicked was never going to be as appealing internationally as in US, especially with Moana taking most of it's screenings in a week (and costing it to underperform harder - like Oppenheimer + Barbie basically murdered Mission Impossible).

[halcyonday]

Very curious about the total numbers. The gays were saying it's outdoing Barbie so this will be interesting. 

[qurl]

they have a hell of a promo budget to recoup … but i imagine they can and will , it's probably going to see at least steady numbers and repeat viewers for a couple weeks

[Space Cowboy]

1 minute ago, Popboi. said:

$1b was never in the reach under any type of prediction,

Idk about that. People in r/boxoffice were really hyped. Many were predicting +1 billion and a Barbie type of breakout.

 

Now, all of a sudden, it's "those predictions were never realistic".
 

 

 

[Eternium]

12 minutes ago, Navyofbadgals said:

This absolutely smashed way harder in the US than I expected, but that overseas number is ROUGH in comparison. Not entirely surprised as wicked is far less of a thing here locally. This is carried hard by the anglosphere but enough so that the underperformance overseas doesn't matter (that much)

It hasn't opened in Germany, Australia, France, China, Japan, etc. yet. It's overseas numbers aren't nearly as impressive as its domestic numbers, but domestic matters more anyway.

2 minutes ago, halcyonday said:

Very curious about the total numbers. The gays were saying it's outdoing Barbie so this will be interesting. 

Can you name these gays? You all have such a weird boner for dragging numbers that now you're going to act like a $100M+ U.S. opening is bad.  

[Ivan_brit]

Ariana & Cynthia

[halcyonday]

3 minutes ago, Eternium said:

It hasn't opened in Germany, Australia, France, China, Japan, etc. yet. It's overseas numbers aren't nearly as impressive as its domestic numbers, but domestic matters more anyway.

Can you name these gays? You all have such a weird boner for dragging numbers that now you're going to act like a $100M+ U.S. opening is bad.  

I mean on Twitter I keep seeing posts that it's outdoing Barbie WW total so I'm curious where it's going to end. The smashery in the US is to be expected, personally I don't think this "universe" is known much outside of the US so I'm curious in seeing the numbers, especially after such aggressive marketing campaign and trying to replicate Barbiehaimer. 

Edited 2 hours ago by halcyonday

[Renem]

16 minutes ago, Navyofbadgals said:

This absolutely smashed way harder in the US than I expected, but that overseas number is ROUGH in comparison. Not entirely surprised as wicked is far less of a thing here locally. This is carried hard by the anglosphere but enough so that the underperformance overseas doesn't matter (that much)

We have to take into account that it hasn't opened in some big movie markets. I am still predicting something over 700 million close to 800 million, but let's see.

 

Hope I am not wrong though, lol

[Popboi.]

5 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

Idk about that. People in r/boxoffice were really hyped. Many were predicting +1 billion and a Barbie type of breakout.

 

Now, all of a sudden, it's "those predictions were never realistic".
 

 

 

We've known about the presale numbers in a while, a couple of redditors carried away are NOT the boxscore forecasts.

[Eternium]

Anyway, the reported budget for Wicked 1 + 2 is $350M. No word on whether or not that includes promo, but probably not which means they spent $700M total. Here's where they are against their total budget for both films after just three days of release:

 

Budget: $350M

Promo: $350M

Total Spent: $700M

 

Wicked 1

Domestic: $114,000,000 x 0.5 = $57,000,000

International: $50,200,000 x 0.4 = $20,080,000

China: N/A

Total Grossed: $164,200,000

Total Earned: $77,080,000

 

They have $623,920,000 to go before they're profitable. And with massive merchandise sales, licensing, music streaming and tons of time in theaters, it's already looking profitable.

[Slate]

1 minute ago, halcyonday said:

I mean on Twitter I keep seeing posts that it's outdoing Barbie WW total so I'm curious where it's going to end. The smashery in the US is to be expected, personally I don't think this "universe" is known much outside of the US so I'm curious in seeing the numbers, especially after such aggressive marketing campaign and trying to replicate Barbiehaimer. 

Are you also expecting Gladiator to match Oppenheimer's 980m gross?

 

[Assassin]

10 minutes ago, halcyonday said:

The gays were saying it's outdoing Barbie so this will be interesting. 

who said that? That wasn't realistic at all.