charts discussion Midweek predictions (11/23): A Bar Song #1 (x18), That's So True #5

[Malkuth]

I think the only reason Billboard are saying that about That's So True is because it's the only song flying up the chart atm. Everything else is just staying stable. They need something to write about. And if it keeps up these gains it will overtake A Bar Song in a few weeks but that's not guaranteed of course.

[pride4jc1222]

Gracie is coming: 

One error: GLB and Too Sweet are holding steady at #11 and #12, respectively, rather than flipping spots.

[fridayteenage]

that margin would indicate Bruno could take over the following week...

 

but maybe shaboozey releases a CMA Awards version of his song after performing to get extra points

Edited 10 hours ago by fridayteenage

[Sweetestsecret]

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

[fridayteenage]

3 week global #1 apt

[Green]

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

[NewStanner]

14 minutes ago, Green said:

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

Just checked the TOTC from that week and the previous one, and it seems like these songs (besides LN which actually fell in points) gained around 0.5-1m streams and 1-3k sales. Which could even equal up to 10 additional chart points.

[UnusualBoy]

Quote

That's So True #5

Dark times we live in

[pride4jc1222]

1 hour ago, Green said:

This was CMAs effect for some of the performers on the Hot 100 last year: (even with just one day of sales - Thursday)

 

9. Morgan Wallen - Thinkin' Bout Me  (+8)

10. Morgan Wallen - Last Night  (+5)

15. Jelly Roll - Need A Favor (+18)

22. Jelly Roll With Lainey Wilson - Save Me  (+24)

29. Chris Stapleton - White Horse  (+25)

 

---------------------

 

So A Bar Song will stay at #1 that week too

 

 

 

The big difference is that last year's CMA was held on Nov 8, two weeks earlier than this year. Those songs last year didn't really have to worry about the holiday songs, and I can see the boosts being muted a bit this year due to the closer proximity to the holiday season.

 

That said, ABS doesn't need that much of a boost to remain #1. (And the following week, ABS will be bookended with Day 2 of the CMA + Thanksgiving day performance at the Lions game.) I think 20 is locked.

[Popboi.]

2 hours ago, Sweetestsecret said:

APT only one week in the top 10. I thought Bruno had the power to score top 10 hits with longevity like die with a smile!

APT is literally showing signs of returning to the top 10 in a week or two 

[Letters From Adi]

Imagine if Gracie dethrones ABS before it reaches 19 weeks