charts discussion Final predictions (11/23): A Bar Song #1, Die with a Smile #2 (4pts difference)

[Erreur2 La Nature]

The Bar Song's success is insane, biggest song of the year in the US, it's unstoppable

[jamiko1230]

6 hours ago, Lord Gaga said:

Can the US do anything right? 

No. And will only continue getting more significantly wrong. 

[americanlife]

There is seriously a problem when a song is able to be at #1 mostly inorganically due to inflated radio payola. Not many people are actively seeking out that awful song to stream. It's repulsive and every week I get more mad that this song is still at #1. My goodness.

[fridayteenage]

the 14 week sales #1 and 9 week streaming #1, which TOTC for last week estimates at 21.1 million streams, "mostly" due to radio?

[NEX]

Great song and I keep hearing everywhere

[Miley Cyrus]

Omg

We need someone to save the music industry

[B-Luke]

That's So True & Sticky both on top of streaming yet only one of them barely scratches the Top 10

[penguintim]

1 hour ago, Miley Cyrus said:

Omg

We need someone to save the music industry

She's on her way

[potent]

How do these random Gracie Abrams songs keep getting up here?

 

Good to have something new I guess...

[jdanton2]

1 hour ago, potent said:

How do these random Gracie Abrams songs keep getting up here?

 

Good to have something new I guess...

autoplay?

[Miley Cyrus]

2 hours ago, B-Luke said:

That's So True & Sticky both on top of streaming yet only one of them barely scratches the Top 10

Lose control being one of two songs gaining in points in the top 10

What is trumps plan to stop this pandemic 

[pride4jc1222]

It has just been announced on the CBS broadcast of the Eagles-Cowboys game that Shaboozey will be performing at the halftime show for the Bears-Lions halftime game. (Last year's performer was Jack Harlow, who got Lovin on Me to #1 as a result.)

[Green]

1 hour ago, pride4jc1222 said:

It has just been announced on the CBS broadcast of the Eagles-Cowboys game that Shaboozey will be performing at the halftime show for the Bears-Lions halftime game. (Last year's performer was Jack Harlow, who got Lovin on Me to #1 as a result.)

 

When is this performance? 

[pride4jc1222]

24 minutes ago, Green said:

 

When is this performance? 

Thanksgiving (Thursday 11/28) at around 2 pm ET.

[Truth Teller]

I feel like DWAS still stands a chance. The gap is small and it has a solid 10M to grow in airplay, from HAC/AC especially that are bound to keep it in rotation.

 

But I wonder if anyone at Interscope is monitoring this or if they gave up seeing ABS's hold and Christmas songs rising. Maybe it can sneak a week first week of January

[truthteller]

we need radios to get their s*** together and drop ABS already

[watermelonshake]

Just listen to another song, people! Any song 

Edited November 11 by watermelonshake

[PoisonPill]

Can someone tell me if DWAS is within actual striking range of #1? If so, I'll do my part and start buying digital copies.

[naval23]

I'm surprised they're not pushing "Die With a Smile" to #1

 

Espresso is giving Levitating vibes without peaking at #2 

 

[fridayteenage]

6 minutes ago, naval23 said:

I'm surprised they're not pushing "Die With a Smile" to #1

 

Espresso is giving Levitating vibes without peaking at #2 

 

and without homophobia collab

[Katamari]

O

20 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

It has just been announced on the CBS broadcast of the Eagles-Cowboys game that Shaboozey will be performing at the halftime show for the Bears-Lions halftime game. (Last year's performer was Jack Harlow, who got Lovin on Me to #1 as a result.)

20 weeks here we come

[pride4jc1222]

Billboard hinting there might be a chance That's So True could catch A Bar Song before it reaches the record on the Hot 100: https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/gracie-abrams-thats-so-true-shaboozey-hot-100-contenders-1235827914/

 

Shaboozey, "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It's 17 weeks now for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade, and second place all-time. The only song still standing in its way from standing alone atop all Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road," featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the imminent release of his new song "Light Again," though we'll see if he still has the viral skills to be able to protect his own chart record — "J Christ," his first release of 2024, topped out at No. 69.) 

Anyway, it's the same old story with "A Bar Song," which is mostly slipping in its weekly performance – though it was actually up 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales chart – but not falling fast enough for anything below it to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song might get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday-announced (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations, where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for "Bar." 

Gracie Abrams, "That's So True" (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there's a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up from behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams' "That's So True" didn't look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The Secret of Us, but it's continued to grow every week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week, and even passing "A Bar Song" on Streaming Songs, as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok has helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as has a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world's biggest tour as a continued platform, as Abrams continues opening Canadian dates on Taylor Swift's Eras trek through early December.) 

Now, the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while also climbing to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could take it to the Hot 100's 10 next week – and so far, it's just kept climbing. The question of if it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey might come down to radio – of course, "A Bar Song" has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while "That's So True" is just beginning to draw airplay, behind Abrams' other contemporaneous hits "Close to You" and "I Love You, I'm Sorry." But "True" is slowly gaining steam there, too, so if it continues to grow while "A Bar Song" shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long. 

Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Holiday season rush begins? We'll see, but if nothing else, it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.

[UnusualBoy]

I doubt the That's So Bland song will be the one preventing it from breaking the record since it's not leading by much on streaming, at least not enough to make up for the huge gap on airplay and sales.

[jdanton2]

7 minutes ago, UnusualBoy said:

I doubt the That's So Bland song will be the one preventing it from breaking the record since it's not leading by much on streaming, at least not enough to make up for the huge gap on airplay and sales.

there are so many songs that deserve #1 and that is not one of them.

[scottydog]

It's feeling like That's So True will hit within the top 5 this week or next before Christmas songs take over. I think it will go back to Shaboozey RIGHT after Christmas, then I expect a bunch of new songs finally taking over. Though there's no Lovin On Me this year so far. 

I'm going to guess more Morgan Wallen in the early new year.