discussion Joker: FAD to lose $150-200M, one of the biggest box office bombs ever

[OrgVisual]

How did Joker 1 have a budget of 50M but this one 200M?   

[Price of Fame]

Opening lower than the first is terrible because this is probably gonna have terrible word of mouth/legs

 

never mind that it costs 4x as much

Edited September 12 by Price of Fame

[Cheers]

Woohoo! Lets aim for lower  

[SweetOreosOfHeaven]

9 minutes ago, Paultea said:

Because Gaga has never made a fool of herself, right? 
 

"There could a hundred people in a room" 

 

"Large swarms of flies starting following me around"

 

"Do you ever drink the prop drinks and actually feel drunk?"
 

"I looked for evidence" 

 

I'm sure she has something great and not foolish to repeat constantly during this press tour!

How is this comparable to the absolute disaster Katy is going through for the last 8 years that just keeps getting worse and worse? Even if this movie flops and is panned Gaga's performance is being once again praised as a highlight of a film with legendary actors. She will be fine, trust me.

[Paultea]

16 minutes ago, SweetOreosOfHeaven said:

How is this comparable to the absolute disaster Katy is going through for the last 8 years that just keeps getting worse and worse? Even if this movie flops and is panned Gaga's performance is being once again praised as a highlight of a film with legendary actors. She will be fine, trust me.

I'm not saying one is worse than the other. I'm pointing out that both are weirdly foolish and both of their fan groups are entirely delusional on how that comes across to people who could care less about them. 
 

For Gaga that's a large swath of the movie business, as she obviously wants to be an Oscar winning actress. Becoming the joke of awards campaigns does absolutely nothing for that goal and will just distract from them. Hopefully she doesn't do it again with this movie. 

[Erotic]

43 minutes ago, Paultea said:

Because Gaga has never made a fool of herself, right? 
 

"There could a hundred people in a room" 

 

"Large swarms of flies starting following me around"

 

"Do you ever drink the prop drinks and actually feel drunk?"
 

"I looked for evidence" 

 

I'm sure she has something great and not foolish to repeat constantly during this press tour!

The obsession. One of these things is not like the other. Joker II will be fine, Gaga will get another major acting role, and can still chart on the Hot 100. 

[Mornings]

I wanna know who saw the first Joke movie and thought…. That would make a great musical!

 

 

[Feanor]

$200M budget for this is insane when apparently it's…

Spoiler

…mostly a courtdrama.

 

Even without the salaries for Phoenix, Phillips & Gaga, the budget would be more than double of the first Joker.

 

Ticket sales will likely pick up tho once they continue with the press tour. They've only had Venice so far.

[hawx23]

Quote

Still, even at a $70M+ start, which would be $26M less than Joker's opening of $96.2M, that's nothing to be ashamed of, and would rep arguably a record start for a live-feature musical that's not a Disney movie (November 2018's Bohemian Rhapsody opened to $51M). At $70M, Joker 2 would be the seventh highest opening for a movie of all-time at the October domestic B.O. 

https://deadline.com/2024/09/joker-folie-box-office-projection-1236086068/
 

You all need to relax and wait it to bomb first lol

[Sugar-Rush]

1 hour ago, OrgVisual said:

How did Joker 1 have a budget of 50M but this one 200M?   

Joaquin and pretty much every other major actor in this film probably asked for much higher salaries after the success of the first one. Standard Hollywood stuff.

[shyboi]

let's be honest, this is not bad for a sequel, and it might even end up doing better

 

2024 BOX OFFICE IS OURS  

[Assassin]

1 hour ago, 4th Time Around said:

Wait I'm confused, I went and did some reading and all the articles are saying that 70 million opening is very good, even if not on the level of the first movie that had novelty on it's side

 

Why is ATRL acting like these numbers indicate a bomb?

Because Deadline looks to downplay bad tracking numbers. 

[shyboi]

1 hour ago, SweetOreosOfHeaven said:

How is this comparable to the absolute disaster Katy is going through for the last 8 years that just keeps getting worse and worse? 

 

why are you bringing Katy into this conversation? 

[Glam]

We should be more concerned about the 2nd week drop. If it opens with 70M but manages to get a small 2nd week drop and so on, then it's not bad.

Edited September 13 by Glam

[4th Time Around]

47 minutes ago, shyboi said:

let's be honest, this is not bad for a sequel, and it might even end up doing better

 

2024 BOX OFFICE IS OURS  

Yeah this panic for no reason is so stupid, nothing I have read in articles or serious discussion indicates 70 million opening is bad at all. Typical ATRL clown behavior trying to stir the pot for no reason 

Edited September 13 by 4th Time Around

[Kool_Aid_King]

34 minutes ago, 4th Time Around said:

Yeah this panic for no reason is so stupid, nothing I have read in articles or reddit discussion indicates 70 million opening is bad at all. Typical ATRL clown behavior trying to stir the pot for no reason 

A global 70M opening for a big budget Oscar winning movie that captivated the world is pretty bad sis.

 

It predicting to do 25M is insane, that's how much Challengers did. They're using Gaga to market the movie a lot and as some others stated, one of the biggest draws for the first movie was the incel angle & that's gone with this movie + being a musical.

 

A comic book movie being a musical is weird cause they sort of attract opposite people, but Joker is a bit different thematically than your typical comic book story so I think it could work.  

 

I hope it does well though because Joker 1 is one of my favorite movies. 

[Mariah4life]

I was expecting close to $100m but oh well. I think the musical component and the mixed reviews turned people off. I'm still super excited to see it because I love the first time and Gaga!

[AvadaKedavra]

Okay, I have to be honest —I'm annoying the monsters because it's funny, but I'm really rooting for this movie
 

I want this deranged film to succeed, so she can embrace her 'dark persona,' leading to that dark album we've all been waiting for.
I'm terrified of this movie flopping badly, and Gaga abandoning-scrapping her dark, harlequin aesthetic-music for a new Adult Contemporary sound, recording more songs with that boring 'die with a smile' tone. That would be a disaster. The album is still far away, so we dont know
 

I'm watching this movie with all my besties. I hope a miracle happens and good word of mouth turns this movie into a hit!
Yll go and watch it   Plz be a hit in the box office, a dark horse. Power of manifestation. Critics are ruining the hype but theyre not always right and they can be biased with musicals
 

Edited September 13 by AvadaKedavra

[Lightbringer007]

the movie will likely still do well in the long run lets calm down ladies ...

[teresaguidice]

the first one had a ton of media hysteria that it was going to trigger mass shootings and domestic terrorism which gave its opening a probably sizable boost from pure curiosity. plus the novelty of a violent, hard R rated comic book movie just as marvel fatigue was setting in. now, curiosity and novelty are gone, add in the mixed reviews. makes sense it'd struggle a bit i think.

[4th Time Around]

14 minutes ago, AvadaKedavra said:

Okay, I have to be honest —I'm annoying the monsters because it's funny, but I'm really rooting for this movie
 

I want this deranged film to succeed, so she can embrace her 'dark persona,' leading to that dark album we've all been waiting for.
I'm terrified of this movie flopping badly, and Gaga abandoning-scrapping her dark, harlequin aesthetic-music for a new Adult Contemporary sound, recording more songs with that boring 'die with a smile' tone. That would be a disaster. The album is still far away, so we dont know
 

I'm watching this movie with all my besties. I hope a miracle happens and good word of mouth turns this movie into a hit!
Yll go and watch it   Plz be a hit in the box office, a dark horse. Power of manifestation. Critics are ruining the hype but theyre not always right and they can be biased with musicals
 

You seriously think she is going to change any of her plans around LG7 based on a movie? That album is also not "far away" she has already announced the lead single is coming in October

 

So much overreacting on ATRL that I mostly come on here for a few good laughs and to check out all the predictions that rarely turn out to be true

Edited September 13 by 4th Time Around

[family.guy123]

"The first film cost $60 million, and though Phillips admits "Folie à Deux" was much more expensive, he says reports of its budget hitting $200 million are "absurd." Plus, he doesn't understand why people care about what's being spent.
 

"I read these stories, and it seems like they're on the side of the multinational corporations," Phillips says. "They're like, 'Why does it cost so much?' They sound like studio executives. Shouldn't people be happy that we got this money out of them, and we used it to go hire a bunch of crew people who can then feed their families?""

https://variety.com/2024/film/features/todd-phillips-joker-2-movie-interview-1236111122/amp/

[shyboi]

there's an ATRL but for MOVIES?? 

 

 

apparently there's a big update comig, maybe a jump from 70 to 80 or even 90 million

 

 

Quote

Definitely a big update on Joker coming. Reviews seem to have impacted upfront demand that was already teetering on the perception of being a musical-adjacent film, even though it's not as if the first film was widely adored by critics either.

 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out with general audiences over the next few weeks, but to have to start putting this movie in the category of something like John Wick 4 rather than It or Deadpool 1+2 on a box office level is, uh, catching many off guard.

 

The Flash data comps seem appropriate given the EAs and early sales, and I would also look to Black Adam as a fall DC movie comp.

 

Didn't have that on my bingo card.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/31569-the-box-office-buzz-tracking-and-pre-sale-thread/page/1034/#comments

 

[AvadaKedavra]

53 minutes ago, 4th Time Around said:

You seriously think she is going to change any of her plans around LG7 based on a movie? That album is also not "far away" she has already announced the lead single is coming in October

 

So much overreacting on ATRL that I mostly come on here for a few good laughs and to check out all the predictions that rarely turn out to be true

Omg sis i hope youre right.

I hope this isn't another situation like Joanne, where all the dark tracks with RedOne-American Horror Story inspired tracks were removed. This album looks so promising that Gaga changing direction would be catastrophic. I don't know why, but I have this gut feeling that her next project is going to be amazing and much better than Chromatica and as good as her first proyects or even better and serve magnum opus 
 Hope theyre pressing the vinyls already

 

Edited September 13 by AvadaKedavra

[♚ PRiNCE HiGH ♚]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:22 AM, Katygato said:

They got the wrong girl.

 

  Hide contents

 

That girl won't pass the auditions