charts discussion Final Hot 100 predictions (9/7/2024): A Bar Song #1 (8x), Sabrina #2-4, IRE RC

[pride4jc1222]

I'm not sure if this is accurate. The Sabrina songs seem too low and IHSH seems too high: 

That group of songs in 11-14 (Lose Control, Too Sweet, Beautiful Things, and Cowgirls) really need to go. DWaS should be #1 the following week.

[Pop Fan]

A Bar Song has to be stopped. It's not funny anymore. We need some remixes from Morgan and Posty. 

[PurrKaty]

11 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Don't know about that. A Bar Song was just too strong on all metrics. Maybe early in its run when ABS wasn't as strong, but it would have been going up against Fortnight's first few weeks, then IHSH and NLU when it was putting up 6M and even 7M updates on US Spotify.

You say don't know about that, then give a maybe… exactly my point. And PPP snuck a week in during IHSH reign  

 

Regardless, it still has more weekly points and longevity overall than multiple #1's this year  

[iamanearthling]

Sabrina we need espresso at number 1.

it's a crime that it's not a number 1 song.
 

[pride4jc1222]

3 hours ago, Pop Fan said:

A Bar Song has to be stopped. It's not funny anymore. We need some remixes from Morgan and Posty. 

Don't worry, DWaS is coming. If it gains 33% again the following week, it will be #1, and that should be the end of A Bar Song's run.

[Pop Fan]

Espresso; Please Please Please; Birds Of A Feather; Good Luck, Babe!; Not Like Us 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Die With A Smile; I Had Some Help; Too Sweet; Taste
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Beautiful Things; Good Graces

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Million Dollar Baby; Lose Control

 

-----------------TALENT: #ERROR 404---------------

ME!; Dance Monkey; abcdefu

 

--------------------TORTURED EARS-----------------

 

Yummy; Big Foot; Think U The **** (Fart)

 

----------------------ARTISTIC HELL-----------------

 

A Bar Song (Tipsy)

[Ger]

That's why I have been rooting for Bar Song to freefall on radio, it's been ENOUGH.gif

[cartierdelrey]

I think Taste will be higher tbh 

[Hot Volcano]

9 minutes ago, cartierdelrey said:

I think Taste will be higher tbh 

MTE, I dont know why they put it so low

[thatsmydemi]

Taste will be top 3 for sure. 

[Miley Cyrus]

8 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I'm not sure if this is accurate. The Sabrina songs seem too low and IHSH seems too high: 

That group of songs in 11-14 (Lose Control, Too Sweet, Beautiful Things, and Cowgirls) really need to go. DWaS should be #1 the following week.

Not please please please 

Y'all are streaming the wrong song we need multiple #1s.. RIP Godpresso  

Edited August 25 by Miley Cyrus

[Prismee]

 

[Hot Volcano]

Duh. These predictions make way more sense.

 

Ugh, can Espresso please reach #1

[pride4jc1222]

If those numbers are accurate, then A Bar Song may have pulled out the #1 for 8/31.

 

ABS: 318 + ~4(3) = ~330

IHSH: 288 + ~13(3) = ~327

[Green]

30 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

If those numbers are accurate, then A Bar Song may have pulled out the #1 for 8/31.

 

ABS: 318 + ~4(3) = ~330

IHSH: 288 + ~13(3) = ~327

 

Their prediction says A Bar Song (+1) and I had some help (-3) so that means I had some help is predicted to be #1 tomorrow

[pride4jc1222]

39 minutes ago, Green said:

 

Their prediction says A Bar Song (+1) and I had some help (-3) so that means I had some help is predicted to be #1 tomorrow

Then either IHSH's fall would be bigger or ABS was smaller. If ABS fall is 4%, then IHSH would have to drop at least 14 or 15% to make it happen. If IHSH's drop is 13%, then ABS would have to be 3% or less to not have the #1 last week.

 

In any case, I think ABS pulled it out. The gap was 1-point on Wednesday, and ABS had the better updates on streaming and radio on Wednesday and Thursday.

[Sweetestsecret]

1 hour ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Then either IHSH's fall would be bigger or ABS was smaller. If ABS fall is 4%, then IHSH would have to drop at least 14 or 15% to make it happen. If IHSH's drop is 13%, then ABS would have to be 3% or less to not have the #1 last week.

 

In any case, I think ABS pulled it out. The gap was 1-point on Wednesday, and ABS had the better updates on streaming and radio on Wednesday and Thursday.

The final predictions are out. 1 point difference for the top! 

 

[pride4jc1222]

22 minutes ago, Sweetestsecret said:

The final predictions are out. 1 point difference for the top! 

 

I did a rough estimate on those numbers, and A Bar Song comes out on top.

 

I used 7*per million streams + per million airplay + per thousand sales

 

A Bar Song - 328.3

IHSH - 320.7

 

If I use 7.5*per million streams, I get:

 

A Bar Song - 344.55

IHSH - 338.15

 

Unless the numbers are wrong, I think ABS more than likely has the #1.

[PurrKaty]

Sabrina holding up really well on US Spotify, and she'll probably grow again starting Monday during the week. It might end up a tighter race for the #1 on the Hot 100.

 

#1. (=) Please Please Please — 2.78M (-290k)
#2. (=) Taste — 2.73M (-240k)
#3. (+1) Espresso —  2.46M (-190k) 

[Green]

It would be so unfair if a Sabrina song misses the #1 against A Radio Song (Tipsy) this week 

her 3 singles will be more consumed than a A Radio Song this week none of them will be #1?   

 

US Spotify:

1. Taste  3.1 million

2. PPP  2.7 million

4. Espresso 2.3 million

6. Good Graces  1.9 million

9. Bed Chem  1.8 million

 

14. A Bar Song 1.4 million

 

 

US Apple:

1    =    Sabrina Carpenter - Taste
2    =   Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please
3    =   Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
4    =   Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile
5    +3    Sabrina Carpenter - Good Graces
6    -1    Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
7    +3    Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem
8    -1    Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER
9    -3    Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

 

 

Hell even Good Graces and Bed Chem are doing better 

 

 

 

[Green]

49 minutes ago, NewStanner said:

Taste is now challenging for #1

 

 

 

YESSS  

[UnusualBoy]

Rooting for Taste  

[Prismee]

Espresso sacrificing itself so its successors can go #1  Sabrina is playing the long game wbk

[fridayteenage]

Get some slowed down sped up Acapella etc for taste

[Walk_Away21]

5 hours ago, Green said:

It would be so unfair if a Sabrina song misses the #1 against A Radio Song (Tipsy) this week 

her 3 singles will be more consumed than a A Radio Song this week none of them will be #1?   

 

US Spotify:

1. Taste  3.1 million

2. PPP  2.7 million

4. Espresso 2.3 million

6. Good Graces  1.9 million

9. Bed Chem  1.8 million

 

14. A Bar Song 1.4 million

 

 

US Apple:

1    =    Sabrina Carpenter - Taste
2    =   Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please
3    =   Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
4    =   Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile
5    +3    Sabrina Carpenter - Good Graces
6    -1    Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
7    +3    Sabrina Carpenter - Bed Chem
8    -1    Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER
9    -3    Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

 

 

Hell even Good Graces and Bed Chem are doing better 

 

 

 

Wait Come on Taste! End this radio payola!