discussion Kamalanomenon 2024: Harris down in NV / Nationally, Trump takes lead in PA (Update)

[Mariah4life]

how does 50% of the country support this offensive, shrimp-headed man child?

[byzantium]

6 minutes ago, Mariah4life said:

how does 50% of the country support this offensive, shrimp-headed man child?

I hate the man, but we are now a decade into this man being one of the most prominent members of American politics.  People should at least make an effort to understand what is going on and where his appeal comes from so that they best know how to combat it.  

[Bethenny Frankel]

I think Kamala will get a big debate boost

[slik]

4 hours ago, Bethenny Frankel said:

I think Kamala will get a big debate boost

Agreed

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on September 8, 2024 vs. September 11, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+2.1) -> Trump (+2.0)

FL: Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.5)

GA: Harris (+0.1) -> Trump (+0.7)

MI: Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.4)

NV: Harris (+0.5) ->   Tie      (=)   

NH: Harris (+6.3) -> Harris (+6.2)

NC: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+0.1)

PA: Harris (+0.3) -> Harris (+0.3)

VA: Harris (+4.9) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited September 11 by jakeisphat

[truthteller]

not the electoral college split getting worse and worse

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024 vs. September 15, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.1) -> Trump (+1.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.5)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Trump(+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.2)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+0.1)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.3) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.1) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.3) -> Harris (+0.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.9) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+2.0)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[shyboi]

3 minutes ago, jakeisphat said:

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024 vs. September 15, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.1) -> Trump (+1.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.5)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Trump(+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.2)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+0.1)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.3) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.1) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.3) -> Harris (+0.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.9) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+2.0)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

  Hide contents

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what does this means in simple terms? there's a lot of graphs and numbers 

[jakeisphat]

2 minutes ago, shyboi said:

 

what does this means in simple terms? there's a lot of graphs and numbers 

Basically, the national polling shows Kamala has made some gains in states like AZ and NC based on the most recent polls in those states. The current polls impacting the prediction include a good amount of post-debate polls. However, recent polls in the blue wall are still very tight. Even though Harris has the better average in those states, the model emphasizes that Trump still has an easier path to 270 electoral votes based on the recent swing-state polling, which is why the model gives him a 59% chance of winning. If more post-debate polls in the coming week show gains for Harris, the model's electoral prediction for a Trump win will turn back toward Kamala as it did when she first entered the race. 

[shyboi]

3 minutes ago, jakeisphat said:

Basically, the national polling shows Kamala has made some gains in states like AZ and NC based on the most recent polls in those states. The current polls impacting the prediction include a good amount of post-debate polls. However, recent polls in the blue wall are still very tight. Even though Harris has the better average in those states, the model emphasizes that Trump still has an easier path to 270 electoral votes based on the recent swing-state polling, which is why the model gives him a 59% chance of winning. If more post-debate polls in the coming week show gains for Harris, the model's electoral prediction for a Trump win will turn back toward Kamala as it did when she first entered the race. 

 

Thank you for the reply, I understand it better now

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on September 15, 2024 vs. September 18, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+1.5) -> Trump (+1.0)

FL: Trump (+4.5) -> Trump (+4.1)

GA: Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.4)

MI: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+2.0)

NV: Harris (+0.1) -> Harris (+1.3)

NH: Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+6.9)

NC: Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+0.1)

PA: Harris (+0.2) -> Harris (+1.4)

VA: Harris (+7.6) -> Harris (+8.0)

WI: Harris (+2.0) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+3.1)

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited September 18 by jakeisphat

[Bethenny Frankel]

all of Trump's leads are falling and Kamala keeps rising. I imagine Kamala will lead in NC once the first poll after the Robinson scandal comes out too.

[jakeisphat]

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 15, 2024 vs. September 22, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.7)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.5) -> Trump (+3.8)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump(+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+2.5)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Harris (+1.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+7.7)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+0.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.2) -> Harris (+1.5)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.6) -> Harris (+7.4)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.0) -> Harris (+1.9)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+3.0)
 

Spoiler

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[jakeisphat]

September 12, 2024 vs. September 25, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+3.8) -> Trump (+3.4)

GA: Trump (+0.8) -> Trump(+0.9)

MI: Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+2.3)

NV: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.1)

NH: Harris (+7.7) -> Harris (+7.6)

NC: Trump (+0.1) -> Trump (+0.6)

PA: Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.6)

VA: Harris (+7.4) -> Harris (+7.3)

WI: Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+2.3)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+2.7)

 

Spoiler

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

Is Kamala coming for Florida? 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 22, 2024 vs. September 29, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+3.8) -> Trump (+3.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.7) -> Harris (+7.5)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.1) -> Trump (+0.2)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.4) -> Harris (+7.2)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.9)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

Spoiler

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 29, 2024 vs. October 13, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.3) -> Trump (+1.6)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+3.3) -> Trump (+5.4)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.8) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.5) -> Harris (+7.0)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.7)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.3) -> Harris (+0.8)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+8.3)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.8)

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. October 13, 2024 vs. October 21, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.6) -> Trump (+2.0)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.4) -> Trump (+6.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+1.3)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.6)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.5)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.0) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+1.0)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Even (=)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+8.3) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.6)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.8) -> Harris (+1.6)
 

Spoiler

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[John Slayne]

he's coming

[stjosephprey4us]

Umm how reliable are these early figures… 

[MistressKay]

This is going to be a super tight election. If she loses I am OVER this racist misogynist country.

 

and those crying genocide like idiots. We will have our own genocide here and trump will double fund Netanyahu. 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. October 21, 2024 vs. October 27, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.0) -> Trump (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+6.3) -> Trump (+6.4)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.3) -> Trump (+1.4)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+0.7)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Even (=)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+8.5)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.0) -> Trump (+1.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Even (=) -> Trump (+0.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.6) -> Harris (+6.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+0.5)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+1.6) -> Harris (+1.2)

 

Spoiler

 

 

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Acuminatus]

The lead in PA? It's Joever