discussion Kamalanomenon 2024: Harris down in NV / Nationally, Trump takes lead in PA (Update)

[Bosque]

Trump serving 1 - 55 - OUT 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on August 18, 2024 vs. August 21, 2024

 

AZ:  Harris (+2.1) -> Harris (+0.9)

FL:  Trump (+5.2) -> Trump (+5.2)

GA:  Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+1.5)

MI:  Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+2.9)

NV:  Trump (+0.2) -> Tie (=)             

NH:  Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+6.7)

NC:  Harris (+0.1) -> Trump (+0.2)

PA:  Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.3)

VA:  Harris (+4.7) -> Harris (+4.6)

WI:  Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.0)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[toxicgenie]

It's good to see she has momentum. She's been excellent at coalition building.

[REDMAN]

 

[jakeisphat]

Special Update (RFK Removed):

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 18, 2024 vs. August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. removed from forecast):

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+2.1) -> Harris (+1.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.2) -> Trump (+4.6)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+3.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Trump (+0.2) -> Harris (+1.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+7.2)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Harris (+0.2)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.7)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.4)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+4.0)

 

Spoiler

 

[Komet]

8 point shift in a month is crazy.

 

I'm not seeing NC being to the left of GA, the demographic trends are not as good in NC for Dems. Most of their support in GA comes from black population which pollsters still haven't figured out how to survey; hence GA polls skewing to the right.

 

If NC gets called for blue, Harris is having a VERY good night. 

Edited August 25 by Komet

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. gone) vs. August 28, 2024:

 

AZ: Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+4.6) -> Trump (+4.9)

GA: Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.6)

MI: Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+2.9)

NV: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.8)

NH: Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+7.3)

NC: Harris (+0.2) -> Harris (+0.4)

PA: Harris (+1.7) -> Harris (+1.7)

VA: Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+3.4)

 

According to the forecast, these numbers likely reflect the peak of Harris' DNC boost. 

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Mariah4life]

Yas queen, coming to flip GA

Edited August 29 by Mariah4life

[Lose My Breath]

I'm VERY cautiously optimistic

[family.guy123]

On 8/23/2024 at 9:54 AM, REDMAN said:

 

Shook to find out her age. She legit looks and acts 20

[Bethenny Frankel]

On 8/28/2024 at 9:13 PM, jakeisphat said:

Polling Average on August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. gone) vs. August 28, 2024:

 

AZ: Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+4.6) -> Trump (+4.9)

GA: Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.6)

MI: Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+2.9)

NV: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.8)

NH: Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+7.3)

NC: Harris (+0.2) -> Harris (+0.4)

PA: Harris (+1.7) -> Harris (+1.7)

VA: Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+3.4)

 

According to the forecast, these numbers likely reflect the peak of Harris' DNC boost. 

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

it looks like it's going to come down to what combination Kamala wins to her to 270 because she's going to have multiple options

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. removed) vs. September 1, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.6) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Harris (+1.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+7.1)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Harris (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.7) -> Harris (+1.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+4.0) -> Harris (+3.5)

 

Spoiler

 

Despite Harris maintaining a lead in polling averages, the forecast now predicts a Trump win:
 

Spoiler

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

https://www.natesilver.net/p/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for

Edited September 2 by jakeisphat

[ElectricStyle]

5 minutes ago, jakeisphat said:

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. removed) vs. September 1, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.6) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Harris (+1.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+7.1)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Harris (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.7) -> Harris (+1.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+4.0) -> Harris (+3.5)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Despite Harris maintaining a lead in polling averages, the forecast now predicts a Trump win:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

https://www.natesilver.net/p/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for

I wonder if between now and election day, Kamala could shrink that 11.8% gap between her and Trump…? please we can't have another trump presidency 

[Princess Aurora]

20 minutes ago, jakeisphat said:

 

  Hide contents

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

https://www.natesilver.net/p/pennsylvania-may-be-a-problem-for

I have a question: How can Trumpet Electoral College points be higher than Harris If he's lower than her? 

Edited September 2 by Princess Aurora

[jakeisphat]

5 minutes ago, Princess Aurora said:

I have a question: How can Trumpet Electoral College points be higher than Harris If he's lower than her? 

Because the electoral prediction is not based solely on the polling averages where Harris leads. The electoral prediction also factors in that she is getting a boost from the DNC, which shows a problem if she's in her convention boost period but has been underwater in PA for the majority of August. The electoral prediction is more sensitive than mere polling averages. 

[Princess Aurora]

4 minutes ago, jakeisphat said:

Because the electoral prediction is not based solely on the polling averages where Harris leads. The electoral prediction also factors in that she is getting a boost from the DNC, which shows a problem if she's in her convention boost period but has been underwater in PA for the majority of August. The electoral prediction is more sensitive than mere polling averages. 

Oh I see. I still think the Electoral College in the US has become completely unbalanced in the last few decades tbh. 

[jakeisphat]

12 minutes ago, Princess Aurora said:

Oh I see. I still think the Electoral College in the US has become completely unbalanced in the last few decades tbh. 

This is a good graphic from the forecast that shows how the electoral prediction is more sensitive then just the averages that I post updates on:

 

 

 

As you can see, while Harris may have a higher polling average than Trump in PA and NV since the race began, the electoral prediction puts more emphasis on recent polls. This is to try and more accurately reflect the current state of the race. So while Harris may have an abundance of good polling from July that is keeping her above water when calculating the average, the forecast is predicting a Trump win because the latest swing state polls are in his favor. The effects of these recent polls can be seen in the 9/1 update where we can see that Trump has gained in every swing state except for Georgia and Virginia. Harris' peak in PA was on 8/14 when she was +2.3 but since then her average polling lead in PA has trickled down in each update since she hasn't been polling well there. 

[whiteferrari]

I had a dream that Trump won and it was terrifying  it felt so real

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on September 1, 2024 vs. September 4, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+0.5) -> Trump (+1.0)

FL: Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.4)

GA: Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+1.0)

MI: Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV:  Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Harris (+7.1) -> Harris (+7.1)

NC: Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+0.4)

PA: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.0)

VA: Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.6)

WI: Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.6)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

 

[Starchild]

the prediction trump will win is stupid because he isn't getting the votes, but the illegal re districting the maga appointees did will be a problem (like uvaldes local election where they voted out Abbott after the school shooting but he re districted the county so he could win) 

 

we really need to vote blue  down the ballet, how con some of you (and I've seen plenty) still support this man? I know some of you hate women and are also self hating but get a clue, billionaires made a plan to dismantle the government and control us 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 1, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.5) -> Trump (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.5)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.1) -> Harris (+6.3)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+1.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+4.9)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.5) -> Harris (+2.5)
 

Spoiler

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[GhostBox]

2 hours ago, jakeisphat said:

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 1, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.5) -> Trump (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.5)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.1) -> Harris (+6.3)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+1.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+4.9)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.5) -> Harris (+2.5)
 

  Hide contents

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

To think Harris could possibly win all those swing states that are basically a coin flip 👏🏼

 

 

[Relampago.]

1 hour ago, GhostBox said:

To think Harris could possibly win all those swing states that are basically a coin flip 👏🏼

 

 

I love your unyielding positivity girl, it keeps me going

[John Slayne]

[shyboi]

On 9/2/2024 at 3:22 PM, whiteferrari said:

I had a dream that Trump won and it was terrifying  it felt so real

 

I had that dream too, I wonder if something collective is happening?