discussion Kamalanomenon 2024: Harris down in NV / Nationally, Trump takes lead in PA (Update)

[Communion]

People who were defending Biden staying in the race should be ashamed of themselves and thoroughly embarrassed. 

[GhostBox]

27 minutes ago, WildHeart said:

You always find a way to be on the wrong side of history 

Im a Tim fan. But Shapiro if picked is gonna help win PA 🎉

you'll get over  it 

 

 

[WildHeart]

2 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

But Shapiro if picked is gonna help win PA 🎉

Such a smart move to pick a VP for PA at the expense of other states when PA polls are already in favor of Kamala 

[GhostBox]

Just now, WildHeart said:

Such a smart move to pick a VP for PA at the expense of other states when PA polls are already in favor of Kamala 

RCP state averages show  that out of the big 3 (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) PA is the one shes behind the most in as of now. 
ironically by like 2 points
 

 

[Princess Aurora]

Interesting. However, it's too early to call. Go vote this November please 

[JC.]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-forecast-analysis
 

We saw how that turned out. Don't get comfortable with the polls and go vote! 

[WildHeart]

9 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

RCP state averages show  that out of the big 3 (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) PA is the one shes behind the most in as of now. 
ironically by like 2 points
 

 

If only voters in MI and WI couldn't change their minds and stay home

[Relampago.]

I need bigger gaps STAT, the time to strike is NOW

 

[Communion]

41 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

RCP state averages

RCP just had MI was the tipping point state before adding a Bloomberg poll that claims Kamala will win the state by 11 points so let's pump the breaks on trying to be poll experts. 

[Dula Peep]

Hopefully she wins by a huge margin so he can't claim it was rigged & stolen again

 

 

[Bloodflowers.]

Guess what me and Kamala have been textin' about (you've been disrespectful)

 

[harwee]

Obliterate that orange demon criminal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 4 by harwee

[Vrx.]

Needs to be larger 

 

[Nightingale]

Sure Biden wasn't amazing but I don't understand who seriously would be in the middle and would think Trump is a better candidate than Biden

[Bethenny Frankel]

kamala coming to slay dump trump

 

[GraceRandolph]

The way BiDONE was single-handedly dragging down the Democratic Party.  

[John Slayne]

electoral college is undemocratic and should be abolished

[spree]

You guys really think a Shapiro VP would reverse all these numbers and go back to Trump?

[slik]

5 hours ago, spree said:

You guys really think a Shapiro VP would reverse all these numbers and go back to Trump?

What it would do is start a negative news cycle that was distracting and effort had to be spent combatting, instead of continuing the positive momentum...we'd have stories like this coming out right and left getting the focus instead of Kamala being the focus

 

 

 

[jakeisphat]

 

On 8/4/2024 at 1:42 PM, jakeisphat said:

Update 8/7/24: Welcome to Kamalanomenon 2024. From now through election day, this topic will post bi-weekly updates of the swing-state polling numbers on the 2024 election. Updates will be posted on Wednesdays and Sundays using data from Nate Silver's 2024 election model.

 

Polling gains by Kamala will be marked in bold. Polling gains by Trump will be marked in italics.

Polling Average on August 4, 2024 vs. August 7, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+2.4) -> Trump (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+6) -> Trump (+5.5)

GA: Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+1.2)

MI: Harris (+2.4) -> Harris (+2.4)

NV: Trump (+1.1) -> Trump (+0.5)

NH: Harris (+5.8) -> Harris (+6.1)

NC: Trump (+1.8) -> Trump (+2.0)

PA: Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+1.0)

VA: Harris (+3.8) -> Harris (+4.5)

WI: Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.4)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 4, 2024 vs. August 11, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.4) -> Harris (+0.6)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+6) -> Trump (+5.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+2.4) -> Harris (+3.2)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Trump (+1.1) -> Harris (+1.6)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+5.8) -> Harris (+6.7)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.8) -> Trump (+1.5)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+1.4)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+3.8) -> Harris (+4.8)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+2.5)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

 

Spoiler

 

[Breathe On Moi]

here we go henny 

 

[teenager]

I love this song 

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on August 11, 2024 vs. August 14, 2024

 

AZ: Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+5.3) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+0.6)

MI: Harris (+3.2) -> Harris (+3.9)

NV: Harris (+1.6) -> Harris (+0.9)

NH: Harris (+6.7) -> Harris (+7.1)

NC: Trump (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.6)

PA: Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+2.3)

VA: Harris (+4.8) -> Harris (+5.1)

WI: Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+3.9)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[jakeisphat]

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 11, 2024 vs. August 18, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.3) -> Trump (+5.2)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+1.4)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.2) -> Harris (+3.0)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.6) -> Trump (+0.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.7) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.5) -> Harris (+0.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.5)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.8) -> Harris (+4.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited August 18 by jakeisphat