Jump to content
Login issues ×
The ATRL Grammys are back! ×

Kamalanomenon 2024: Harris down in NV / Nationally, Trump takes lead in PA (Update)

jakeisphat

By jakeisphat
in Civics

 Share

Recommended Posts

jakeisphat Veteran

jakeisphat

Posted
Posted (edited)

Update 8/7/24: Welcome to Kamalanomenon 2024. From now through election day, this topic will post bi-weekly updates of the swing-state polling numbers on the 2024 election. Updates will be posted periodically using data from Nate Silver's 2024 election model.

 

Polling gains by Kamala will be marked in bold. Polling gains by Trump will be marked in italics.

 

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 4, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.4)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+6)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.4)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+2.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Trump (+1.1)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+5.8)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.8)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.5)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+3.8)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.2)

 

Quote

hecSfXB.png

 

August 11, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 4, 2024 vs. August 11, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.4) -> Harris (+0.6)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+6) -> Trump (+5.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+2.4) -> Harris (+3.2)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Trump (+1.1) -> Harris (+1.6)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+5.8) -> Harris (+6.7)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.8) -> Trump (+1.5)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+1.4)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+3.8) -> Harris (+4.8)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+2.5)

August 18, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 11, 2024 vs. August 18, 2024

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.3) -> Trump (+5.2)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+1.4)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.2) -> Harris (+3.0)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.6) -> Harris (+0.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.7) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.5) -> Harris (+0.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.5)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.8) -> Harris (+4.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

August 24, 2024 (Special Update: RFK Jr. Removed from Forecast)

 

Spoiler

Special Update (RFK Removed):

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 18, 2024 vs. August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. removed from forecast):

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+2.1) -> Harris (+1.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.2) -> Trump (+4.6)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.4) -> Trump (+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+3.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Trump (+0.2) -> Harris (+1.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+7.2)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Harris (+0.2)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.7)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.4)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+4.0)

 

KG937qs.png

September 1, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. August 24, 2024 (RFK Jr. removed) vs. September 1, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.6) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Harris (+1.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+7.1)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Harris (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.7) -> Harris (+1.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+5.7)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.4) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+4.0) -> Harris (+3.5)

 

 

LpwnAhC.png

 

ZMzhMip.png

 

 

September 8, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 1, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.5) -> Trump (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.7)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.1)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.4)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.5)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.1) -> Harris (+6.3)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+1.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+0.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+5.7) -> Harris (+4.9)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.5) -> Harris (+2.5)

 

qdV0KYG.png

EMbObXA.png

 

September 15, 2024 Update

 

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 8, 2024 vs. September 15, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.1) -> Trump (+1.5)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.7) -> Trump (+4.5)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Trump(+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.4) -> Harris (+1.2)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Harris (+0.1)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.3) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.1) -> Trump (+0.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.3) -> Harris (+0.2)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+4.9) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+2.0)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+2.2)

 

hYBz561.png

pZ74hxC.png

 

September 22, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

 

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 15, 2024 vs. September 22, 2024:

 

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.5) -> Trump (+0.7)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+4.5) -> Trump (+3.8)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump(+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+2.5)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.1) -> Harris (+1.2)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+7.7)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.3) -> Trump (+0.1)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.2) -> Harris (+1.5)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.6) -> Harris (+7.4)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.0) -> Harris (+1.9)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.2) -> Harris (+3.0)

 

 

VFlXD7Z.png

HWfMcvP.png

 

 

September 29, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler

 

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 22, 2024 vs. September 29, 2024:

 

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+1.3)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+3.8) -> Trump (+3.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+0.7)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+2.5) -> Harris (+1.9)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.2) -> Harris (+1.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.7) -> Harris (+7.5)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.1) -> Trump (+0.2)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.5) -> Harris (+1.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.4) -> Harris (+7.2)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.9)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.0) -> Harris (+3.3)

 

7W0FjJF.png

rtNjszB.png

 

 

October 13, 2024 Update

 

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. September 29, 2024 vs. October 13, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.3) -> Trump (+1.6)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+3.3) -> Trump (+5.4)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+0.8)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+1.8) -> Harris (+0.8)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.5) -> Harris (+7.0)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.2) -> Trump (+0.7)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+1.3) -> Harris (+0.8)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.2) -> Harris (+8.3)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.9) -> Harris (+1.1)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+3.3) -> Harris (+2.8)

 

14xhdI3.png

C6utRkW.png

October 21, 2024 Update

 

 

Spoiler

Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. October 13, 2024 vs. October 21, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.6) -> Trump (+2.0)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+5.4) -> Trump (+6.3)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+0.8) -> Trump (+1.3)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.6)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Harris (+0.5)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+7.0) -> Harris (+6.6)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+0.7) -> Trump (+1.0)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Harris (+0.8) -> Even (=)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+8.3) -> Harris (+7.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+1.1) -> Harris (+0.6)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+2.8) -> Harris (+1.6)

 

VZ8kFyQ.png

 

T23kwXG.png

 

fK3YJri.png

 

October 27, 2024 Update

 

Spoiler


Polling Average on July 21, 2024 vs. October 21, 2024 vs. October 27, 2024:

 

AZ: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+2.0) -> Trump (+2.1)

FL: Trump (+10.8) -> Trump (+6.3) -> Trump (+6.4)

GA: Trump (+8.3) -> Trump (+1.3) -> Trump (+1.4)

MI: Trump (+6.2) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+0.7)

NV: Trump (+10.7) -> Harris (+0.5) -> Even (=)

NH: Trump (+1) -> Harris (+6.6) -> Harris (+8.5)

NC: Trump (+6.8) -> Trump (+1.0) -> Trump (+1.3)

PA: Trump (+5.1) -> Even (=) -> Trump (+0.3)

VA: Trump (+0.3) -> Harris (+7.6) -> Harris (+6.6)

WI: Trump (+3.3) -> Harris (+0.6) -> Harris (+0.5)

 

National:

 

Nat.: Trump (+4.5) -> Harris (+1.6) -> Harris (+1.2)

 

YPfGqMi.png

 

rF0JGuv.png

 

FJ7V0pE.png


 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Edited by jakeisphat
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3

  • Replies 96
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • jakeisphat

    23

  • GhostBox

    4

  • Bethenny Frankel

    4

  • WildHeart

    3

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

JBJT2786 Veteran

JBJT2786

Posted
Posted

Here we go...

Alongoria13 Veteran

Alongoria13

Posted
Posted

Oop

 

wh9rKTJ.gif

ONOPKA Veteran

ONOPKA

Posted
Posted

obliterate that prick :clap3:

 

wh9rKTJ.gif

  • Thanks 1
Smarticle Grand Master

Smarticle

Posted
Posted

Florida :dies:

  • Haha 2
shookspeare Grand Master

shookspeare

Posted
Posted

Florida!!!

 

wh9rKTJ.gif

glitch Grand Master

glitch

Posted
Posted

365 party girl bumping that

 

wh9rKTJ.gif

  • Like 4
suburbannature Grand Master

suburbannature

Posted
Posted

He's terrified 

 

wh9rKTJ.gif

  • Thanks 1
Yog Grand Master

Yog

Posted
Posted

He's cooked

 

spacer.png

  • Thanks 1
EnigmaticAndroid Grand Master

EnigmaticAndroid

Posted
Posted

Fry that greasy hoe

 

spacer.png

  • Thanks 1
EnoughSaid Experienced

EnoughSaid

Posted
Posted

Wow she's kinda winning, everything is lining up perfectly for her. She just needs a solid VP to seal the deal

  • Like 7
PrettyHurts Grand Master

PrettyHurts

Posted
Posted

Thank you JD Vance :jonny5:

  • Haha 3
SlimyGhoul Rising Star

SlimyGhoul

Posted
Posted

spacer.png

 

Not surprised!

Mike91 Proficient

Mike91

Posted
Posted

Biden really was setting us up for disaster. :skull:

  • Like 8
HausOfPunk Mentor

HausOfPunk

Posted
Posted

She's winning again... Somehow she always stays here. I CAN stand it!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 5
XAMJ Veteran

XAMJ

Posted
Posted

Mind you VP has not been announced and the DNC has not happened, is over for MAGA

 

Cgzo7Vm.gif

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Cheers Grand Master

Cheers

Posted
Posted

The gap is not big enough for me. Lets go, Coconuts.

 

going-crazy.gif

  • Like 1
fulgadrum Enthusiast

fulgadrum

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mike91 said:

Biden really was setting us up for disaster. :skull:

Biden needed to be in the race for a minute to get us all panicky + lean in harder for the kamala nom

  • Popular Post
QueenBeyoncé Mentor

QueenBeyoncé

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

I don't trust polls, VOTE! 

  • Like 16
  • Thanks 7
Price of Fame Mentor

Price of Fame

Posted
Posted

God, Trump had no right to ever have a lead in a couple of those states. :deadbanana:What a disaster Biden was gonna be

  • Like 1
GhostBox Grand Master

GhostBox

Posted
Posted

Harris/Shapiro coming for that win 

Kamala Harris Dancing GIF by Joe Biden

  • Like 3
  • Thumbs Down 5
Hurem Grand Master

Hurem

Posted
Posted

Just goes to show what an awful candidate Biden was, can't believe they really tried to push it as hard as they did. Thank god for that debate.

 

I fully expect Harris to take over at least two more states, maybe even three, after the debate (if it ever happens).

  • Like 3
Minto Proficient

Minto

Posted
Posted

virginia!!! ft florence & the machine

 

spacer.png

Breathe On Moi Grand Master

Breathe On Moi

Posted
Posted

that popular vote GAP 

 

spacer.png

  • Popular Post
WildHeart Grand Master

WildHeart

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted
6 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

Harris/Shapiro coming for that win 

Kamala Harris Dancing GIF by Joe Biden

You always find a way to be on the wrong side of history 

200.gif?cid=a595bef3vs2wlhgflf8a26ga8mwb

  • Haha 18
 Share
Go to topic listing

Obsessed with Pop Culture. Copyright © 1999-2024, ATRL

Navigation

About Us

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.