official chart Billboard Charts (June 18-24, 2017)

[simmnfierzig]

Full early predictions

 

1 Despacito     754  (=)

2 I'm The One     431  (=)

3 That's What I Like     389 (=)  

4 Shape Of You     326  (=)

5 Wild Thoughts     320  (debut)

6 Humble     318  (-1)

7 Something Just Like This     257  (=)

8 Stay     252  (=)

9 Mask Off     246 (-3) 

10 Congratulations     245  (-1)

11 XO Tour Lif3     239  (-1)

12 Believer     237  (+3)

13 Redbone     228  (+1)

14 Body Like A Back Road     227  (-3)

15 Issues     216  (-2)

16 Unforgettable     213 (+2)  

17 Bad Liar     198  (+6)

18 Say You Won't Let Go     195 (-6) 

19 It Ain't Me     192  (-2)

20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     180  (-1)

 

21 Malibu     180  (+4)

22 Now Or Never     177 (-2)  

23 Castle On The Hill     153 (-2)  

24 Slow Hands     147  (=)

25 Attention     140  (+2)

26 Rolex     135  (=)

27 iSpy     135  (-5)

28 2U     133  (-12)

29 Location     128 (-1) 

30 Magnolia     127 (+3) 

31 Swalla     125  (-1)

32 In Case You Didn't Know     116  (-1)

33 DNA     113  (-1)

34 Everyday We Lit     112  (+3)

35 Slippery     111  (+1)

36 Closer     110  (-2)

37 Drowning     107  (+5)

38 Strip That Down     106 (+6)  

39 Goosebumps     104  (-1)

 

40 Sign Of The Times     104 (-11)  

41 Hurricane     101  (+2)

42 Bad And Boujee       99 (-7)  

43 Tunnel Vision       97  (-3)

44 T-Shirt       92  (-3)

45 Passionfruit       89 (=)  

46 24k Magic       88  (-7)

47 God, Your Mama And Me       86  (+4)

48 Scars To Your Beautiful       86  (+1)

49 Slide       86  (-3)

50 Craving You       86 (+2)  

51 Feels       85  (debut)

52 The Fighter       81  (-5)

53 Crying In The Club       80 (+2)  

54 First Day Out       79  (+2)

55 The Cure       78  (-7)

56 My Girl       72  (+4)

57 4:00 AM       70  (+27)

58 Look At Me!       68  (-4)

59 Love       67  (-1)

60 Every Time I Hear That Song       66  (+1)

 

61 How Not To       62  (-4)

62 Felices Los 4       62  (+3)

63 Drinkin Problem       61  (+4)

64 Cold       61  (=)

65 You Look Good       61 (-6)  

66 Portland       58  (=)

67 1-800-273-8255       58  (+1)

68 Small Town Boy       57  (+8)

69 First Day Out Kodak       57 (debut) 

70 Privacy       56  (-1)

71 If I Told You       56 (-8) 

72 It's A Vibe       56  (+23)

73 Flatliner       55  (-1)

74 Love Galore       55 (-4) 

75 Loyalty       52  (-1)

76 Yours If You Want It       52 (-1)  

77 No Promises       52  (=)

78 To The Max       51  (-25)

79 Weak       51  (-6)

80 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart       50  (-2)

 

81 Butterfly Effect       49  (=)

82 Down       49  (-11)

83 Swish Swish       48 (-21)  

84 Thunder       47  (+3)

85 Woke Up Like This       46 (-3) 

86 Losin Control       46  (-6)

87 My Old Man       46  (re-entry)

88 Somebody Else Will       45  (+3)

89 Do I Make You Wanna       45  (-10)

90 Reminder       44  (+7)

91 Most Girls       43  (-3)

92 Green Light       42  (re-entry)

93 What Ifs       42  (=)

94 Escapate Conmingo       42 (-5)  

95 Nobody Else But You       39  (-3)

96 It Ain't My Fault       39  (+4)

97 Whatever You Need       39 (debut) 

98 Subeme La Radio       38  (-8)

99 Met Gala       37  (re-entry)

100 Gyalchester       36  (-2)

 

Others

 

Symphony 36

Versace On The Floor 35

 

Going reucurrent

Swang

 

[Ash12345]

On 19 June 2017 at 11:29 PM, simmnfierzig said:

Early predictions

 

1 Despacito     761  (=)

2 I'm The One     419  (=)

3 That's What I Like     378 (=)  

4 Shape Of You     328  (=)

5 Humble     323  (=)

6 Wild Thoughts     298 (debut)  

7 Something Just Like This     260  (=)

8 Stay     249  (=)

9 Congratulations     245 (=)  

10 Mask Off     239  (-4)

11 Body Like A Back Road     237  (=)

12 Believer     236  (+3)

13 XO Tour Lif3     235 (-3) 

14 Redbone     230  (=)

15 Issues     222  

16 Unforgettable     209  

17 Bad Liar     208  (+6)

18 Say You Won't Let Go     205  

19 It Ain't Me     201  (-2)

20 Malibu 187 (+~10)

21 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     176  (-2)

22 Now Or Never     174  (-2)

 

25 2U 142 (-9)

44 Feels 96 (debut)

So even though over 80% of points come from the remix, the solo version could still go top 30 now?

 

  Latin music slaying

[simmnfierzig]

2 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

Yes. After the initial radio deal, and a couple weeks of programmer, music director curiosity if it would be big, long term support collapsed.

Cause it had terrible sales, streams and call-out scores 

Airplay was still the metric it did by far the best in.

[Jackson]

3 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

12 Believer     237  (+3)

 

so close to the top 10! i bet it'll get there the following week with the album release 

[Agenor]

14 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Full early predictions

 

20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     180  (-1)

Did you count streams for the official video that was released yesterday?

Edited June 21, 2017 by Agenor

[UNNAMI]

2 hours ago, J-boy said:

What's your thoughts about Wild Thoughts as a contender for Despacito?

 

1 hour ago, Jacob.23 said:

Imo Wild Thoughts won't top the HOT 100. Look at I'm The One also by DJ Khaled. It debuted at number one with over 550 points and it's still number two this week. Based on predictions WT won't even debut top 5 this week. If it can't get above 400 points during its debut week (with a mv) it really can't top the hot 100 in the long run, especially because there won't be another music video to boost song streams later on.

 

but the points now are so big, but in August they can be smaller. For example if Wild Thoughts will stabilize arround 400 points and I'm The One will fall below that so WT will fight with Despacito who can be also around 400points in August.

 

it would be really smart for DJ Khaled and Rihanna to do some performances in like July or August

 

but overall I think no - WT won't top Despacito and Taylor Swift with a good pop song is the only thing that can stop it

 

 

1 hour ago, FanOfPop said:

Rihanna herself didn't do it with "Work" and the music video was released the same day as the audio (if I'm correct).

Audio was out for three of four weeks and that's alone was enough to top charts. she released music video on sunday and on monday next day it was reveled she topped the chart

[simmnfierzig]

2 minutes ago, Agenor said:

Did you count streams for the official video that was released 19 hours ago?

No.

Can people start following the tracking weeks please 

 

From a quick look it doesn't seem like it will close the gap to #19, certainly could though

[Agenor]

2 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

No.

Can people start following the tracking weeks please 

 

From a quick look it doesn't seem like it will close the gap to #19, certainly could though

That's like 2 million streams, quite achievable. But we'll see...

[Willy.]

26 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Full early predictions

 

1 Despacito     754  (=)

2 I'm The One     431  (=)

3 That's What I Like     389 (=)  

4 Shape Of You     326  (=)

5 Wild Thoughts     320  (debut)

6 Humble     318  (-1)

7 Something Just Like This     257  (=)

8 Stay     252  (=)

9 Mask Off     246 (-3) 

10 Congratulations     245  (-1)

11 XO Tour Lif3     239  (-1)

12 Believer     237  (+3)

13 Redbone     228  (+1)

14 Body Like A Back Road     227  (-3)

15 Issues     216  (-2)

16 Unforgettable     213 (+2)  

17 Bad Liar     198  (+6)

18 Say You Won't Let Go     195 (-6) 

19 It Ain't Me     192  (-2)

20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back     180  (-1)

 

21 Malibu     180  (+4)

22 Now Or Never     177 (-2)  

23 Castle On The Hill     153 (-2)  

24 Slow Hands     147  (=)

25 Attention     140  (+2)

26 Rolex     135  (=)

27 iSpy     135  (-5)

28 2U     133  (-12)

29 Location     128 (-1) 

30 Magnolia     127 (+3) 

31 Swalla     125  (-1)

32 In Case You Didn't Know     116  (-1)

33 DNA     113  (-1)

34 Everyday We Lit     112  (+3)

35 Slippery     111  (+1)

36 Closer     110  (-2)

37 Drowning     107  (+5)

38 Strip That Down     106 (+6)  

39 Goosebumps     104  (-1)

 

40 Sign Of The Times     104 (-11)  

41 Hurricane     101  (+2)

42 Bad And Boujee       99 (-7)  

43 Tunnel Vision       97  (-3)

44 T-Shirt       92  (-3)

45 Passionfruit       89 (=)  

46 24k Magic       88  (-7)

47 God, Your Mama And Me       86  (+4)

48 Scars To Your Beautiful       86  (+1)

49 Slide       86  (-3)

50 Craving You       86 (+2)  

51 Feels       85  (debut)

52 The Fighter       81  (-5)

53 Crying In The Club       80 (+2)  

54 First Day Out       79  (+2)

55 The Cure       78  (-7)

56 My Girl       72  (+4)

57 4:00 AM       70  (+27)

58 Look At Me!       68  (-4)

59 Love       67  (-1)

60 Every Time I Hear That Song       66  (+1)

 

61 How Not To       62  (-4)

62 Felices Los 4       62  (+3)

63 Drinkin Problem       61  (+4)

64 Cold       61  (=)

65 You Look Good       61 (-6)  

66 Portland       58  (=)

67 1-800-273-8255       58  (+1)

68 Small Town Boy       57  (+8)

69 First Day Out Kodak       57 (debut) 

70 Privacy       56  (-1)

71 If I Told You       56 (-8) 

72 It's A Vibe       56  (+23)

73 Flatliner       55  (-1)

74 Love Galore       55 (-4) 

75 Loyalty       52  (-1)

76 Yours If You Want It       52 (-1)  

77 No Promises       52  (=)

78 To The Max       51  (-25)

79 Weak       51  (-6)

80 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart       50  (-2)

 

81 Butterfly Effect       49  (=)

82 Down       49  (-11)

83 Swish Swish       48 (-21)  

84 Thunder       47  (+3)

85 Woke Up Like This       46 (-3) 

86 Losin Control       46  (-6)

87 My Old Man       46  (re-entry)

88 Somebody Else Will       45  (+3)

89 Do I Make You Wanna       45  (-10)

90 Reminder       44  (+7)

91 Most Girls       43  (-3)

92 Green Light       42  (re-entry)

93 What Ifs       42  (=)

94 Escapate Conmingo       42 (-5)  

95 Nobody Else But You       39  (-3)

96 It Ain't My Fault       39  (+4)

97 Whatever You Need       39 (debut) 

98 Subeme La Radio       38  (-8)

99 Met Gala       37  (re-entry)

100 Gyalchester       36  (-2)

 

Others

 

Symphony 36

Versace On The Floor 35

 

Going reucurrent

Swang

 

Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM. 

[simmnfierzig]

6 minutes ago, Agenor said:

That's like 2 million streams, quite achievable. But we'll see...

Song is at like 15% US streams before the video. So that would be 13M globally with the same ratio. Not really on course for that, but sales have gone up a bit... So maybe.

 

5 minutes ago, Willy. said:

Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM. 

They would have to get almost twice as many streams on AM than on Spotify to sneak in. Don't see that at all, but I will obviously check when HDD gives us the on-demand numbers for the week. 

Edited June 21, 2017 by simmnfierzig

[novembers17th]

13 hours ago, frrr said:

It hasn't to be that way...simply a song with JB would rapidly increase the interest of the public. Despacito was already huge in Europe, it was only missing the English markets like the USA and Canada where it was slowly rising. I'm not saying it wasn't fun for them to do such version...but c'mon who was one of the "hottest" singers in 2015 with three number ones that changed the public mind regarding him. They needed someone singing in English he just jumped into the track to give it a boost, it wouldn't have made it so far if it was the original version but top 15 for sure.  

10 hours ago, MusicTalker said:

The correlation is that based on his actions post-recording it seems like he could give a damn about the fact that he recorded it in the first place which is why it gives me label-forced teas and that he did for another quick hit. 

 

I was referring to multiple performances and not just one in which he doesn't know any of the words he's meant to sing.

 

anyway I don't blame him/his label or Luis/Daddy Yankee for a mutually beneficial business deal so more power to 'em.

 

 

Ok I know I'm right but I'm just gonna stop arguing cause clearly I'm not changing anyone's mind. We can agree to disagree.

 

[Rico Shameless v2]

3 hours ago, Jacob.23 said:

Imo Wild Thoughts won't top the HOT 100. Look at I'm The One also by DJ Khaled. It debuted at number one with over 550 points and it's still number two this week. Based on predictions WT won't even debut top 5 this week. If it can't get above 400 points during its debut week (with a mv) it really can't top the hot 100 in the long run, especially because there won't be another music video to boost song streams later on.

 

Radio, stable sales and continued streaming growth is what will matter. Not what it's doing week one or even what ITO did.. ITO will be down on radio soon enough. Bruno, Ed and Kendrick all already topped the chart and obviously won't return. Coldplay, Zedd, Future and Post are definitely not going forward.

 

So yeah, WT will likely top the chart unless something bizarre happens or if Despacito just never really collapses during its fertile weeks. It's the only song besides Redbone that's fresh and prime for potential #1.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Rico Shameless v2

[Jacob.23]

1 hour ago, Willy. said:

Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM. 

The same songs that charted this week will chart next week. Why couldn't you just read what you quoted??? 

2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

72 It's A Vibe       56  (+23)

2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

57 4:00 AM       70  (+27)

@simmnfierzig btw it's just 4 AM (4:00), not that it matters  Thanks for the predictions 

[brianc33710]

7 hours ago, Letters From Adi said:

I feel like some song's gonna blow up in the next 8 weeks and snatch the #1...

Yeah, like See You Again. SYA came out of nowhere when UF looked like it would get 17 #1 weeks almost guaranteed. 

[simmnfierzig]

6 hours ago, ChartsFan said:

So it lost support as the original poster stated. I agree.

No 

 

5 hours ago, Jacob.23 said:

The same songs that charted this week will chart next week. Why couldn't you just read what you quoted??? 

@simmnfierzig btw it's just 4 AM (4:00), not that it matters  Thanks for the predictions 

Can't get my Excel to stop doing that. Had changed it here before posting always, but forgot this time 

[Navyofbadgals]

44 minutes ago, ChartsFan said:

Yes it did.

 

after an initial radio deal, the fallout scores sucked, and it was obvious streams and sales were not going to be big, so the MDs and PDs of radio stopped supporting the record and it dropped on The AirPlay charts. 

 

had they actually supported the record, it would have continued to grow on radiowhich it did not. t was a lot of room for growth still when it was no longer supported and started to drop.

 

one most certainly can't claim radio supports a song during its radio deal and the first few weeks of momentum after that deal.

 

 

Not sure what You're talking bout, cause despite the bad callout scores, the song still reached 92M+ on radio

[istan4badgalriri]

9 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

Full early predictions

 

1 Despacito     754  (=)

2 I'm The One     431  (=)

3 That's What I Like     389 (=)  

4 Shape Of You     326  (=)

5 Wild Thoughts     320  (debut)

 

hope you're right

[simmnfierzig]

2 hours ago, ChartsFan said:

Yes it did.

 

after an initial radio deal, the fallout scores sucked, and it was obvious streams and sales were not going to be big, so the MDs and PDs of radio stopped supporting the record and it dropped on The AirPlay charts. 

 

had they actually supported the record, it would have continued to grow on radiowhich it did not. t was a lot of room for growth still when it was no longer supported and started to drop.

 

one most certainly can't claim radio supports a song during its radio deal and the first few weeks of momentum after that deal.

 

 

You know that the topic was Wild Thoughts and it's chances of going #1?

If that pulls a CTTR on sales and streaming it's extremely irrelevant what radio does with it.

So to pull that song as an example of missing radio support makes no sense. You have to pull a song that actually did well elsewhere and maybe even could have gone #1 with more radio support.

 

 

[One Nation]

Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1?

[FanOfPop]

3 minutes ago, One Nation said:

Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1?

I don't know if there is any male to do so. I almost certainly think there is none female.

[istan4badgalriri]

@simmnfierzig  how much airplay did you estimate for Wild thoughts first week?

Cause today's update...

DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 51.683 (+ 7.241)

it also increased a bit more on spotify (1.33M streams today)

[simmnfierzig]

4 hours ago, One Nation said:

Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1?

 

4 hours ago, FanOfPop said:

I don't know if there is any male to do so. I almost certainly think there is none female.

Boyz II Men have 3

 

Santana, Pharell Williams and Mariah Carey have 2 

 

Edit: Beyonce has 2 if you want to include Destiny's Child

Edited June 22, 2017 by simmnfierzig

[FanOfPop]

6 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

 

Boyz II Men have 3

 

Santanta, Pharell Williams and Mariah Carey have 2 

 

Edit: Beyonce has 2 if you want to include Destiny's Child

Oh, okay thank you.

[simmnfierzig]

33 minutes ago, istan4badgalriri said:

@simmnfierzig  how much airplay did you estimate for Wild thoughts first week?

Cause today's update...

DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 51.683 (+ 7.241)

it also increased a bit more on spotify (1.33M streams today)

45M on Mediabase. Which is like 34M on Billboard. Sales and streams are more uncertain anyway so +-1-2 million is not that important. 

 

What made the predictions go up from Monday, besides Spotify, is the crazy stability on Youtube. 2.4M on the first day and 1.5M on the fourth day is very unusual. 

[istan4badgalriri]

1 minute ago, simmnfierzig said:

45M on Mediabase. Which is like 34M on Billboard. Sales and streams are more uncertain anyway so +-1-2 million is not that important. 

 

What made the predictions go up from Monday, besides Spotify, is the crazy stability on Youtube. 2.4M on the first day and 1.5M on the fourth day is very unusual. 

your airplay prediction seems accurate

i didn't know 2.4m first day & 1.5m fourth day was unusual