simmnfierzig Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 Full early predictions 1 Despacito 754 (=) 2 I'm The One 431 (=) 3 That's What I Like 389 (=) 4 Shape Of You 326 (=) 5 Wild Thoughts 320 (debut) 6 Humble 318 (-1) 7 Something Just Like This 257 (=) 8 Stay 252 (=) 9 Mask Off 246 (-3) 10 Congratulations 245 (-1) 11 XO Tour Lif3 239 (-1) 12 Believer 237 (+3) 13 Redbone 228 (+1) 14 Body Like A Back Road 227 (-3) 15 Issues 216 (-2) 16 Unforgettable 213 (+2) 17 Bad Liar 198 (+6) 18 Say You Won't Let Go 195 (-6) 19 It Ain't Me 192 (-2) 20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 180 (-1) 21 Malibu 180 (+4) 22 Now Or Never 177 (-2) 23 Castle On The Hill 153 (-2) 24 Slow Hands 147 (=) 25 Attention 140 (+2) 26 Rolex 135 (=) 27 iSpy 135 (-5) 28 2U 133 (-12) 29 Location 128 (-1) 30 Magnolia 127 (+3) 31 Swalla 125 (-1) 32 In Case You Didn't Know 116 (-1) 33 DNA 113 (-1) 34 Everyday We Lit 112 (+3) 35 Slippery 111 (+1) 36 Closer 110 (-2) 37 Drowning 107 (+5) 38 Strip That Down 106 (+6) 39 Goosebumps 104 (-1) 40 Sign Of The Times 104 (-11) 41 Hurricane 101 (+2) 42 Bad And Boujee 99 (-7) 43 Tunnel Vision 97 (-3) 44 T-Shirt 92 (-3) 45 Passionfruit 89 (=) 46 24k Magic 88 (-7) 47 God, Your Mama And Me 86 (+4) 48 Scars To Your Beautiful 86 (+1) 49 Slide 86 (-3) 50 Craving You 86 (+2) 51 Feels 85 (debut) 52 The Fighter 81 (-5) 53 Crying In The Club 80 (+2) 54 First Day Out 79 (+2) 55 The Cure 78 (-7) 56 My Girl 72 (+4) 57 4:00 AM 70 (+27) 58 Look At Me! 68 (-4) 59 Love 67 (-1) 60 Every Time I Hear That Song 66 (+1) 61 How Not To 62 (-4) 62 Felices Los 4 62 (+3) 63 Drinkin Problem 61 (+4) 64 Cold 61 (=) 65 You Look Good 61 (-6) 66 Portland 58 (=) 67 1-800-273-8255 58 (+1) 68 Small Town Boy 57 (+8) 69 First Day Out Kodak 57 (debut) 70 Privacy 56 (-1) 71 If I Told You 56 (-8) 72 It's A Vibe 56 (+23) 73 Flatliner 55 (-1) 74 Love Galore 55 (-4) 75 Loyalty 52 (-1) 76 Yours If You Want It 52 (-1) 77 No Promises 52 (=) 78 To The Max 51 (-25) 79 Weak 51 (-6) 80 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 50 (-2) 81 Butterfly Effect 49 (=) 82 Down 49 (-11) 83 Swish Swish 48 (-21) 84 Thunder 47 (+3) 85 Woke Up Like This 46 (-3) 86 Losin Control 46 (-6) 87 My Old Man 46 (re-entry) 88 Somebody Else Will 45 (+3) 89 Do I Make You Wanna 45 (-10) 90 Reminder 44 (+7) 91 Most Girls 43 (-3) 92 Green Light 42 (re-entry) 93 What Ifs 42 (=) 94 Escapate Conmingo 42 (-5) 95 Nobody Else But You 39 (-3) 96 It Ain't My Fault 39 (+4) 97 Whatever You Need 39 (debut) 98 Subeme La Radio 38 (-8) 99 Met Gala 37 (re-entry) 100 Gyalchester 36 (-2) Others Symphony 36 Versace On The Floor 35 Going reucurrent Swang
Ash12345 Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 On 19 June 2017 at 11:29 PM, simmnfierzig said: Early predictions 1 Despacito 761 (=) 2 I'm The One 419 (=) 3 That's What I Like 378 (=) 4 Shape Of You 328 (=) 5 Humble 323 (=) 6 Wild Thoughts 298 (debut) 7 Something Just Like This 260 (=) 8 Stay 249 (=) 9 Congratulations 245 (=) 10 Mask Off 239 (-4) 11 Body Like A Back Road 237 (=) 12 Believer 236 (+3) 13 XO Tour Lif3 235 (-3) 14 Redbone 230 (=) 15 Issues 222 16 Unforgettable 209 17 Bad Liar 208 (+6) 18 Say You Won't Let Go 205 19 It Ain't Me 201 (-2) 20 Malibu 187 (+~10) 21 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 176 (-2) 22 Now Or Never 174 (-2) 25 2U 142 (-9) 44 Feels 96 (debut) So even though over 80% of points come from the remix, the solo version could still go top 30 now? Latin music slaying
simmnfierzig Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Yes. After the initial radio deal, and a couple weeks of programmer, music director curiosity if it would be big, long term support collapsed. Cause it had terrible sales, streams and call-out scores Airplay was still the metric it did by far the best in.
Jackson Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: 12 Believer 237 (+3) so close to the top 10! i bet it'll get there the following week with the album release
Agenor Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 14 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions 20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 180 (-1) Did you count streams for the official video that was released yesterday? Edited June 21, 2017 by Agenor
UNNAMI Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 2 hours ago, J-boy said: What's your thoughts about Wild Thoughts as a contender for Despacito? 1 hour ago, Jacob.23 said: Imo Wild Thoughts won't top the HOT 100. Look at I'm The One also by DJ Khaled. It debuted at number one with over 550 points and it's still number two this week. Based on predictions WT won't even debut top 5 this week. If it can't get above 400 points during its debut week (with a mv) it really can't top the hot 100 in the long run, especially because there won't be another music video to boost song streams later on. but the points now are so big, but in August they can be smaller. For example if Wild Thoughts will stabilize arround 400 points and I'm The One will fall below that so WT will fight with Despacito who can be also around 400points in August. it would be really smart for DJ Khaled and Rihanna to do some performances in like July or August but overall I think no - WT won't top Despacito and Taylor Swift with a good pop song is the only thing that can stop it 1 hour ago, FanOfPop said: Rihanna herself didn't do it with "Work" and the music video was released the same day as the audio (if I'm correct). Audio was out for three of four weeks and that's alone was enough to top charts. she released music video on sunday and on monday next day it was reveled she topped the chart
simmnfierzig Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Agenor said: Did you count streams for the official video that was released 19 hours ago? No. Can people start following the tracking weeks please From a quick look it doesn't seem like it will close the gap to #19, certainly could though
Agenor Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: No. Can people start following the tracking weeks please From a quick look it doesn't seem like it will close the gap to #19, certainly could though That's like 2 million streams, quite achievable. But we'll see...
Willy. Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions 1 Despacito 754 (=) 2 I'm The One 431 (=) 3 That's What I Like 389 (=) 4 Shape Of You 326 (=) 5 Wild Thoughts 320 (debut) 6 Humble 318 (-1) 7 Something Just Like This 257 (=) 8 Stay 252 (=) 9 Mask Off 246 (-3) 10 Congratulations 245 (-1) 11 XO Tour Lif3 239 (-1) 12 Believer 237 (+3) 13 Redbone 228 (+1) 14 Body Like A Back Road 227 (-3) 15 Issues 216 (-2) 16 Unforgettable 213 (+2) 17 Bad Liar 198 (+6) 18 Say You Won't Let Go 195 (-6) 19 It Ain't Me 192 (-2) 20 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 180 (-1) 21 Malibu 180 (+4) 22 Now Or Never 177 (-2) 23 Castle On The Hill 153 (-2) 24 Slow Hands 147 (=) 25 Attention 140 (+2) 26 Rolex 135 (=) 27 iSpy 135 (-5) 28 2U 133 (-12) 29 Location 128 (-1) 30 Magnolia 127 (+3) 31 Swalla 125 (-1) 32 In Case You Didn't Know 116 (-1) 33 DNA 113 (-1) 34 Everyday We Lit 112 (+3) 35 Slippery 111 (+1) 36 Closer 110 (-2) 37 Drowning 107 (+5) 38 Strip That Down 106 (+6) 39 Goosebumps 104 (-1) 40 Sign Of The Times 104 (-11) 41 Hurricane 101 (+2) 42 Bad And Boujee 99 (-7) 43 Tunnel Vision 97 (-3) 44 T-Shirt 92 (-3) 45 Passionfruit 89 (=) 46 24k Magic 88 (-7) 47 God, Your Mama And Me 86 (+4) 48 Scars To Your Beautiful 86 (+1) 49 Slide 86 (-3) 50 Craving You 86 (+2) 51 Feels 85 (debut) 52 The Fighter 81 (-5) 53 Crying In The Club 80 (+2) 54 First Day Out 79 (+2) 55 The Cure 78 (-7) 56 My Girl 72 (+4) 57 4:00 AM 70 (+27) 58 Look At Me! 68 (-4) 59 Love 67 (-1) 60 Every Time I Hear That Song 66 (+1) 61 How Not To 62 (-4) 62 Felices Los 4 62 (+3) 63 Drinkin Problem 61 (+4) 64 Cold 61 (=) 65 You Look Good 61 (-6) 66 Portland 58 (=) 67 1-800-273-8255 58 (+1) 68 Small Town Boy 57 (+8) 69 First Day Out Kodak 57 (debut) 70 Privacy 56 (-1) 71 If I Told You 56 (-8) 72 It's A Vibe 56 (+23) 73 Flatliner 55 (-1) 74 Love Galore 55 (-4) 75 Loyalty 52 (-1) 76 Yours If You Want It 52 (-1) 77 No Promises 52 (=) 78 To The Max 51 (-25) 79 Weak 51 (-6) 80 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 50 (-2) 81 Butterfly Effect 49 (=) 82 Down 49 (-11) 83 Swish Swish 48 (-21) 84 Thunder 47 (+3) 85 Woke Up Like This 46 (-3) 86 Losin Control 46 (-6) 87 My Old Man 46 (re-entry) 88 Somebody Else Will 45 (+3) 89 Do I Make You Wanna 45 (-10) 90 Reminder 44 (+7) 91 Most Girls 43 (-3) 92 Green Light 42 (re-entry) 93 What Ifs 42 (=) 94 Escapate Conmingo 42 (-5) 95 Nobody Else But You 39 (-3) 96 It Ain't My Fault 39 (+4) 97 Whatever You Need 39 (debut) 98 Subeme La Radio 38 (-8) 99 Met Gala 37 (re-entry) 100 Gyalchester 36 (-2) Others Symphony 36 Versace On The Floor 35 Going reucurrent Swang Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM.
simmnfierzig Posted June 21, 2017 Posted June 21, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Agenor said: That's like 2 million streams, quite achievable. But we'll see... Song is at like 15% US streams before the video. So that would be 13M globally with the same ratio. Not really on course for that, but sales have gone up a bit... So maybe. 5 minutes ago, Willy. said: Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM. They would have to get almost twice as many streams on AM than on Spotify to sneak in. Don't see that at all, but I will obviously check when HDD gives us the on-demand numbers for the week. Edited June 21, 2017 by simmnfierzig
novembers17th Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 13 hours ago, frrr said: It hasn't to be that way...simply a song with JB would rapidly increase the interest of the public. Despacito was already huge in Europe, it was only missing the English markets like the USA and Canada where it was slowly rising. I'm not saying it wasn't fun for them to do such version...but c'mon who was one of the "hottest" singers in 2015 with three number ones that changed the public mind regarding him. They needed someone singing in English he just jumped into the track to give it a boost, it wouldn't have made it so far if it was the original version but top 15 for sure. 10 hours ago, MusicTalker said: The correlation is that based on his actions post-recording it seems like he could give a damn about the fact that he recorded it in the first place which is why it gives me label-forced teas and that he did for another quick hit. I was referring to multiple performances and not just one in which he doesn't know any of the words he's meant to sing. anyway I don't blame him/his label or Luis/Daddy Yankee for a mutually beneficial business deal so more power to 'em. Ok I know I'm right but I'm just gonna stop arguing cause clearly I'm not changing anyone's mind. We can agree to disagree.
Rico Shameless v2 Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Jacob.23 said: Imo Wild Thoughts won't top the HOT 100. Look at I'm The One also by DJ Khaled. It debuted at number one with over 550 points and it's still number two this week. Based on predictions WT won't even debut top 5 this week. If it can't get above 400 points during its debut week (with a mv) it really can't top the hot 100 in the long run, especially because there won't be another music video to boost song streams later on. Radio, stable sales and continued streaming growth is what will matter. Not what it's doing week one or even what ITO did.. ITO will be down on radio soon enough. Bruno, Ed and Kendrick all already topped the chart and obviously won't return. Coldplay, Zedd, Future and Post are definitely not going forward. So yeah, WT will likely top the chart unless something bizarre happens or if Despacito just never really collapses during its fertile weeks. It's the only song besides Redbone that's fresh and prime for potential #1. Edited June 22, 2017 by Rico Shameless v2
Jacob.23 Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Willy. said: Are any of 2 Chainz' album tracks debuting? They're pretty high on AM. The same songs that charted this week will chart next week. Why couldn't you just read what you quoted??? 2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: 72 It's A Vibe 56 (+23) 2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: 57 4:00 AM 70 (+27) @simmnfierzig btw it's just 4 AM (4:00), not that it matters Thanks for the predictions
brianc33710 Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 7 hours ago, Letters From Adi said: I feel like some song's gonna blow up in the next 8 weeks and snatch the #1... Yeah, like See You Again. SYA came out of nowhere when UF looked like it would get 17 #1 weeks almost guaranteed.
simmnfierzig Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 6 hours ago, ChartsFan said: So it lost support as the original poster stated. I agree. No 5 hours ago, Jacob.23 said: The same songs that charted this week will chart next week. Why couldn't you just read what you quoted??? @simmnfierzig btw it's just 4 AM (4:00), not that it matters Thanks for the predictions Can't get my Excel to stop doing that. Had changed it here before posting always, but forgot this time
Navyofbadgals Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 44 minutes ago, ChartsFan said: Yes it did. after an initial radio deal, the fallout scores sucked, and it was obvious streams and sales were not going to be big, so the MDs and PDs of radio stopped supporting the record and it dropped on The AirPlay charts. had they actually supported the record, it would have continued to grow on radiowhich it did not. t was a lot of room for growth still when it was no longer supported and started to drop. one most certainly can't claim radio supports a song during its radio deal and the first few weeks of momentum after that deal. Not sure what You're talking bout, cause despite the bad callout scores, the song still reached 92M+ on radio
istan4badgalriri Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 9 hours ago, simmnfierzig said: Full early predictions 1 Despacito 754 (=) 2 I'm The One 431 (=) 3 That's What I Like 389 (=) 4 Shape Of You 326 (=) 5 Wild Thoughts 320 (debut) hope you're right
simmnfierzig Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 2 hours ago, ChartsFan said: Yes it did. after an initial radio deal, the fallout scores sucked, and it was obvious streams and sales were not going to be big, so the MDs and PDs of radio stopped supporting the record and it dropped on The AirPlay charts. had they actually supported the record, it would have continued to grow on radiowhich it did not. t was a lot of room for growth still when it was no longer supported and started to drop. one most certainly can't claim radio supports a song during its radio deal and the first few weeks of momentum after that deal. You know that the topic was Wild Thoughts and it's chances of going #1? If that pulls a CTTR on sales and streaming it's extremely irrelevant what radio does with it. So to pull that song as an example of missing radio support makes no sense. You have to pull a song that actually did well elsewhere and maybe even could have gone #1 with more radio support.
One Nation Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1?
FanOfPop Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, One Nation said: Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1? I don't know if there is any male to do so. I almost certainly think there is none female.
istan4badgalriri Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 @simmnfierzig how much airplay did you estimate for Wild thoughts first week? Cause today's update... DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 51.683 (+ 7.241) it also increased a bit more on spotify (1.33M streams today)
simmnfierzig Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, One Nation said: Is there a female artist with three songs that have spent at least 10 weeks at #1? 4 hours ago, FanOfPop said: I don't know if there is any male to do so. I almost certainly think there is none female. Boyz II Men have 3 Santana, Pharell Williams and Mariah Carey have 2 Edit: Beyonce has 2 if you want to include Destiny's Child Edited June 22, 2017 by simmnfierzig
FanOfPop Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said: Boyz II Men have 3 Santanta, Pharell Williams and Mariah Carey have 2 Edit: Beyonce has 2 if you want to include Destiny's Child Oh, okay thank you.
simmnfierzig Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, istan4badgalriri said: @simmnfierzig how much airplay did you estimate for Wild thoughts first week? Cause today's update... DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts: 51.683 (+ 7.241) it also increased a bit more on spotify (1.33M streams today) 45M on Mediabase. Which is like 34M on Billboard. Sales and streams are more uncertain anyway so +-1-2 million is not that important. What made the predictions go up from Monday, besides Spotify, is the crazy stability on Youtube. 2.4M on the first day and 1.5M on the fourth day is very unusual.
istan4badgalriri Posted June 22, 2017 Posted June 22, 2017 1 minute ago, simmnfierzig said: 45M on Mediabase. Which is like 34M on Billboard. Sales and streams are more uncertain anyway so +-1-2 million is not that important. What made the predictions go up from Monday, besides Spotify, is the crazy stability on Youtube. 2.4M on the first day and 1.5M on the fourth day is very unusual. your airplay prediction seems accurate i didn't know 2.4m first day & 1.5m fourth day was unusual
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