dumbsparce Posted May 18 Posted May 18 I expected Billie to be able to clear 400k at this point in her career. She's THE Gen Z girl and I think of her as the Britney of her generation as in she'd be capable of pulling huge numbers based on hype alone. Seeing that Taylor did similar numbers last week really puts into perspective how non-massive these new girls are. 7
Redstreak Posted May 18 Posted May 18 1 minute ago, Papi Juancho said: It's not what Billie wants, it's what the label wants and they obviously want that #1 for their main artist right now. But I doubt Taylor's 4th week will make +200k unless she uses her tricks. It only fell 9% this week to 260k, her numbers would have to exponentially plummet out of nowhere
omrimayo Posted May 18 Posted May 18 If Taylor wants it it's easy with the BDILHA cd's. I love Billie new album but still prefer Taylor at number 1, but I think Billie would and Taylor won't ship them. 3 2
By the Water Posted May 18 Posted May 18 4 minutes ago, Papi Juancho said: It's not what Billie wants, it's what the label wants and they obviously want that #1 for their main artist right now. But I doubt Taylor's 4th week will make +200k unless she uses her tricks. Shows how much you know when she already did 260k 4th week with no "tricks" 9 2
Raspberries Posted May 18 Posted May 18 18 minutes ago, taylor__fan said: They are just being conservative. I don't think this will open with less than Guts. +350K is coming HDD are rarely off that much unless the debut is 1M+ 1
Ms. Togekiss Posted May 18 Posted May 18 The reception on social media has been stellar as well as on Spotify, so they're definitely underestimating her. She's probably going to cross 300k and take the #1. A bunch of digital versions honestly wont make a difference it just gave us a few kiis lbr
taylor__fan Posted May 18 Posted May 18 10 minutes ago, Raspberries said: HDD are rarely off that much unless the debut is 1M+ Well they predicts Guts to do 250+265K after first day and it ended up with +300K. So I thinkt it is possible that Billie ends up with 325-350K, but we will see
Jpkun Posted May 18 Posted May 18 that's a shockingly low initial projection considering Billie's relative strength (compared to her peers) in selling physicals as well as her very strong day 1 streams. I would have expected an initial 300-325k estimate based on her previous performances. Her physical sales must have not been very strong? I think she should get around 150K SEA unless there's a complete streaming collapse (seems unlikely given tiktok, good WoM). Both her previous albums sold very strong physicals. Are her fans listening to her anti-waste message and just avoiding physicals? My fiance and I went to our local target and found the vinyl was sold out. Checked other nearby targets via Target app and saw they were also all sold out. I assumed this was because demand is very high, but maybe there's just very low supply going around?
Isaiah Posted May 18 Posted May 18 21 minutes ago, dumbsparce said: I expected Billie to be able to clear 400k at this point in her career. She's THE Gen Z girl and I think of her as the Britney of her generation as in she'd be capable of pulling huge numbers based on hype alone. Seeing that Taylor did similar numbers last week really puts into perspective how non-massive these new girls are. 400k is really hard with 10 tracks in the streaming era though, the album would have to have a huge average-per-track, great pure sales, and a really stable first week
Isaiah Posted May 18 Posted May 18 With how well the album is being received i think she'll have a really stable week and clear 300k 1
Gossip_Boy Posted May 18 Posted May 18 I think her projected total will improve throughout the tracking week as HDD usually lowballs in the first update. 300k could be within reach.
Jpkun Posted May 18 Posted May 18 3 minutes ago, Ms. Togekiss said: The reception on social media has been stellar as well as on Spotify, so they're definitely underestimating her. She's probably going to cross 300k and take the #1. A bunch of digital versions honestly wont make a difference it just gave us a few kiis lbr I think if Billie clears 350k she will secure #1. I think in the 325-350k she MIGHT? - but also I'd expect Taylor to push more shenanigans. This also depends fully on whether Taylor intends to actually ship out the signed TTPD CDs + But Daddy I Love Him CDs this week (I suppose she could choose not to, to say fk you to the people criticizing her). She might choose not to, in which case I'd imagine 260k might be enough for Billie to be #1. I wish we had more insight into how many of the digital voice memo albums got sold. But yes everyone needs to take the pop girlies chart battling less srsly. it's just for the kii kiis.
Mandalore Posted May 18 Posted May 18 (edited) 1 minute ago, Jpkun said: I think if Billie clears 350k she will secure #1. I think in the 325-350k she MIGHT? - but also I'd expect Taylor to push more shenanigans. This also depends fully on whether Taylor intends to actually ship out the signed TTPD CDs + But Daddy I Love Him CDs this week (I suppose she could choose not to, to say fk you to the people criticizing her). She might choose not to, in which case I'd imagine 260k might be enough for Billie to be #1. I wish we had more insight into how many of the digital voice memo albums got sold. But yes everyone needs to take the pop girlies chart battling less srsly. it's just for the kii kiis. Not much because no one cared about them as the memos were uploaded online right after But it's been fun watching everyone scramble. Edited May 18 by Mandalore
Jpkun Posted May 18 Posted May 18 3 minutes ago, Isaiah said: 400k is really hard with 10 tracks in the streaming era though, the album would have to have a huge average-per-track, great pure sales, and a really stable first week Yes I totally agree. It sounds easy to say 200k SEA/200k pures is easily attainable, but 200k+ SEA is very rare. I feel like we've been slightly deluded by Taylor's numbers. Outside of Taylor, only SZA and Beyonce have managed to get 200k SEA among female artists, I believe.
Jpkun Posted May 18 Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, Mandalore said: Not much because no one cared about them as the memos were uploaded online right after But it's been fun watching everyone scramble. eh, don't underestimate the number of swifties who just want to kii kii or support her numbers.
Saintlor Posted May 18 Posted May 18 (edited) Interesting that she c*ckily said she would wait till after Ariana drops only to now get possibly blocked I don't think Taylor will block her though Edited May 18 by Saintlor 1 1
Tm4074 Posted May 18 Posted May 18 1 minute ago, Jpkun said: Yes I totally agree. It sounds easy to say 200k SEA/200k pures is easily attainable, but 200k+ SEA is very rare. I feel like we've been slightly deluded by Taylor's numbers. Outside of Taylor, only SZA and Beyonce have managed to get 200k SEA among female artists, I believe. Ariana and Olivia as well. Ariana did 244k SEA with TUN. Olivia did 223k with SOUR. 3
Jpkun Posted May 18 Posted May 18 7 minutes ago, Tm4074 said: Ariana and Olivia as well. Ariana did 244k SEA with TUN. Olivia did 223k with SOUR. Thank you for the corrections! But yes even with Ari/Olivia, a rarity rather than their standard, further showing how difficult it is to obtain! 3
Popboi. Posted May 18 Posted May 18 260k would be a stellar debut, #1 or not, cause clearly this album will have strong legs.
ontherocks Posted May 18 Posted May 18 50 minutes ago, Raspberries said: HDD are rarely off They are actually. And they have been plenty of times 1
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