news Michigan Dems ring the alarm: "Biden campaign isn't listening... 2016 all over again"

[byzantium]

4 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

And yet those people who are not Biden will still be running in 2024, now sure there could be some that will vote for down ballot and leave the president blank, but I can’t imagine the likelihood of that when we still have 9 more months of republicans loudly letting the mask slip

Again if we repeat 2022, democrats will still lose the house.  Losing the senate is guaranteed as well.  

[Redstreak]

4 minutes ago, byzantium said:

Again if we repeat 2022, democrats will still lose the house.  Losing the senate is guaranteed as well.  

But we aren’t repeating 2022, speaker Johnson and McCarthy have both been very vocal shitshows, we just had a news cycle of republicans killing a border bill that *they* asked for at the behest of Trump just to run on it. Even peoples current view of the economy is starting to *slowly* soften. Plus we’ve already picked up a Republican seat a couple weeks ago 

Edited February 24 by Redstreak

[byzantium]

2 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

She would also be my pick and hopefully she’ll make a try in 2028, but outside of the small chance of her being selected by the party leaders should Biden regain sentience and resign, she isn’t even running. I know it sounds snarky but at the end of the day I still have to look at what actual options there are before me, Biden wasn’t even on the Maine ballot and still won the primary 

This is why it’s important to raise all these alarms now.  I am very fearful of the fact that if Biden does not step down, a trump presidency and Republican house and senate will largely be secured. 

[Bubble Tea]

There is NO chance Biden will best Trump, I'm sorry to say. 

[LustSpell]

Even if it's just going to be yelled @, Biden still needs to go there and hear their plights and pleas before it's too late. At least try to be understanding. Regardless if the majority of the voting bloc agrees with his actions so far with the war. Hilary completed ghosted the midwest thinking the wall would never be broken and she lost it all. This easily could happen again.

 

But I also think calling this election a shoo-in for Trump at this point is too early. At the end of the day, a large majority of the country still despises him for the zero he did. Loud people on the internet will not change that.

Edited February 24 by LustSpell

[GhostBox]

Just now, Tropical said:

There is NO chance Biden will best Trump, I'm sorry to say. 

I guess I’d rather be considered the underdog right now 8 months out then everyone looking at me like I already won (aka Hillary)

[Redstreak]

2 minutes ago, byzantium said:

This is why it’s important to raise all these alarms now.  I am very fearful of the fact that if Biden does not step down, a trump presidency and Republican house and senate will largely be secured. 

I think the idea of a red wave is unrealistic, even if Trump wins I think the down ballot is just not gonna go his way, we would have seen that by now and we just aren’t 

[GhostBox]

4 minutes ago, LustSpell said:

Even if it's just going to be yelled @, Biden still needs to go there and hear their plights and pleas before it's too late. At least try to be understanding. Regardless if the majority of the voting bloc agrees with his actions so far with the war.

 

But I also think calling this election a shoo-in for Trump at this point is too early. At the end of the day, a large majority of the country still despises him for the zero he did. Loud people on the internet will not change that.

The Biden admin tried to set up meetings with them to discuss things  but they declined to even meet. So yea. 

Edited February 24 by GhostBox

[Redstreak]

6 minutes ago, byzantium said:

This is why it’s important to raise all these alarms now.  I am very fearful of the fact that if Biden does not step down, a trump presidency and Republican house and senate will largely be secured. 

The problem is that there’s no real chance of Whitmer getting picked. It’d probably Kamala, who I see doing worse. Even Michelle Obama is like third in betting sites for replacements 

Edited February 24 by Redstreak

[byzantium]

Just now, Redstreak said:

I think the idea of a red wave is unrealistic, even if Trump wins I think the down ballot is just not gonna go his way, we would have seen that by now and we just aren’t 

If people stay home because they are not voting for Biden, they also won’t be voting down ballot either.  This happened in 2016.  And again for a third time, republicans don’t need a red wave, they just need to repeat 2022.  Even with all these great down ballot candidates you keep mentioning, democrats still lose. 

[byzantium]

2 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

The problem is that there’s no real chance of Whitney getting picked. It’d probably Kamala who I see doing worst. Even Michelle Obama is like third in betting sites for replacements 

If Biden is going to lose though, I’ll at least take the chance for someone else.  At least someone who can actively go out a campaign.  

Edited February 24 by byzantium

[Redstreak]

Just now, byzantium said:

If people stay home because they are not voting for Biden, they also won’t be voting down ballot either.  This happened in 2016.  And again for a third time, republicans don’t need a red wave, they just need to repeat 2022.  Even with all these great down ballot candidates you keep mentioning, democrats still lose. 

Staying home would affect down ballot much more marginally than it would Biden. Biden can win the popular vote and still lose overall, down-ballot cannot 

[byzantium]

1 minute ago, Redstreak said:

Staying home would affect down ballot much more marginally than it would Biden. Biden can win the popular vote and still lose overall, down-ballot cannot 

Which is exactly like lower voter excitement would hurt the democratic candidates. 

[Redstreak]

1 minute ago, byzantium said:

Which is exactly like lower voter excitement would hurt the democratic candidates. 

But we haven’t been seeing lower voter turn out, even just recently

[woohoo]

I think what will push Biden over the top are new women voters angry about Roe and how bad it keeps getting in Red states, and never Trump republicans. I’m talking the ones who supported Nikki Haley who said they’d vote for Biden over Trump. People do not like this getting rid of democracy talk coming from the far right. The noise of young voters like us online isn’t exactly concerning because we don’t vote and half of them probably never planned to vote in the first place. This generation doesn’t understand that an IG/X post doesn’t translate into an actual ballot cast. 

Edited February 24 by woohoo

[byzantium]

19 minutes ago, Redstreak said:

But we haven’t been seeing lower voter turn out, even just recently

2022 voter turnout was 46%. In 2016 it was 60%.  If midterm voter turnout is the best we can hope for in 2024, democrats lose.  

[ClashAndBurn]

1 hour ago, Redstreak said:

But we haven’t been seeing lower voter turn out, even just recently

Biden’s “blowout” victory romp in South Carolina that all the BlueAnon pundits said showed him as being defiant and strong against all odds among black voters had <5% turnout.

 

Not to mention, all these races haven’t had Joe Biden at the top of the ticket weighing down the down ballot options like an albatross around their necks. They’ve been doing well specifically because Joe Biden, the most unpopular president in nearly half a century, isn’t on the ballot. The problem isn’t Democrats. The problem (which ATRL’s resident BlueMAGAs don’t seem to want to acknowledge) is specifically Joe Biden.

[chessguy99]

1 hour ago, Redstreak said:

But we haven’t been seeing lower voter turn out, even just recently

The 2022 midterm had a 6% lower turnout than the 2018 midterm. Would probably have been lower without some states having abortion and marijuana related propositions on the ballot. IDT turnout is going to be as crucial as it was in 2020, as Republicans have woken up and are beginning to embrace early voting.

[ClashAndBurn]

3 minutes ago, chessguy99 said:

The 2022 midterm had a 6% lower turnout than the 2018 midterm. Would probably have been lower without some states having abortion and marijuana related propositions on the ballot. IDT turnout is going to be as crucial as it was in 2020, as Republicans have woken up and are beginning to embrace early voting.

That and COVID is no longer going to be a factor. Plus the fact that Dobbs isn’t going to be the animating factor it has been forever. It might last them for one or two more election cycles before the reality of Post-Roe settles in as the new normal.

[Fleabag]

1 hour ago, ClashAndBurn said:

That and COVID is no longer going to be a factor. Plus the fact that Dobbs isn’t going to be the animating factor it has been forever. It might last them for one or two more election cycles before the reality of Post-Roe settles in as the new normal.

Your doomerism on the Dobbs effect makes no sense. If you expect many women to suddenly give in and accept having their rights over their bodies taken away from them you are delusional. This issue will continue to dominate among many female voters for as long as it is relevant to their lives (which is forever). The IVF ruling just this week sent shockwaves through the nation and forced republicans to go into full damage control mode to try and minimize its impact on them. They know this issue is a massive loser for them and it’s why they barely scraped out a house majority in 2022 (the margin of which is continuing to cause them problems to this day), partially or fully lost control of multiple state governments, and have been getting pummeled in special and off year elections ever since. It’s turned a large and crucial bloc in this nation from lower propensity voters to single issue voters who will turn out to the polls because of it. It’s extremely toxic for them and will continue to hurt them for cycles to come. I get that things may seem bleak at the moment especially as a fellow progressive, but giving up and going full doomer when the election is still 9 months out seems extremely premature. A lot can change both in the political environment and feelings of voters and has in previous elections.

[Aden]

3 hours ago, woohoo said:

I think what will push Biden over the top are new women voters angry about Roe and how bad it keeps getting in Red states, and never Trump republicans. I’m talking the ones who supported Nikki Haley who said they’d vote for Biden over Trump. People do not like this getting rid of democracy talk coming from the far right. The noise of young voters like us online isn’t exactly concerning because we don’t vote and half of them probably never planned to vote in the first place. This generation doesn’t understand that an IG/X post doesn’t translate into an actual ballot cast. 

 

9 minutes ago, Fleabag said:

Your doomerism on the Dobbs effect makes no sense. If you expect many women to suddenly give in and accept having their rights over their bodies taken away from them you are delusional. This issue will continue to dominate among many female voters for as long as it is relevant to their lives (which is forever). The IVF ruling just this week sent shockwaves through the nation and forced republicans to go into full damage control mode to try and minimize its impact on them. They know this issue is a massive loser for them and it’s why they barely scraped out a house majority in 2022 (the margin of which is continuing to cause them problems to this day), partially or fully lost control of multiple state governments, and have been getting pummeled in special and off year elections ever since. It’s turned a large and crucial bloc in this nation from lower propensity voters to single issue voters who will turn out to the polls because of it. It’s extremely toxic for them and will continue to hurt them for cycles to come. I get that things may seem bleak at the moment especially as a fellow progressive, but giving up and going full doomer when the election is still 9 months out seems extremely premature. A lot can change both in the political environment and feelings of voters and has in previous elections.

All of this. It's cool to **** on Biden now but everyone is going to fall in line come November 5th. It's not the most popular opinion but it's the truth.

 

No individual serious about advancing progressive legislation is going to sit out for Joe. Elections are more than just individual presidential candidates. Serious voters know it's deeper than that.

[ClashAndBurn]

34 minutes ago, Fleabag said:

Your doomerism on the Dobbs effect makes no sense. If you expect many women to suddenly give in and accept having their rights over their bodies taken away from them you are delusional. This issue will continue to dominate among many female voters for as long as it is relevant to their lives (which is forever). The IVF ruling just this week sent shockwaves through the nation and forced republicans to go into full damage control mode to try and minimize its impact on them. They know this issue is a massive loser for them and it’s why they barely scraped out a house majority in 2022 (the margin of which is continuing to cause them problems to this day), partially or fully lost control of multiple state governments, and have been getting pummeled in special and off year elections ever since. It’s turned a large and crucial bloc in this nation from lower propensity voters to single issue voters who will turn out to the polls because of it. It’s extremely toxic for them and will continue to hurt them for cycles to come. I get that things may seem bleak at the moment especially as a fellow progressive, but giving up and going full doomer when the election is still 9 months out seems extremely premature. A lot can change both in the political environment and feelings of voters and has in previous elections.

I think it's hard to perceive just how complacent most Americans actually are. The abortion issue can only carry you so far as long as... Democrats don't actually do anything that can revitalize abortion rights. Because feasibly, they can't without major democratic overhauls that institutionalists like Joe Biden would be unwilling to make. They have zero path to 60 Senators, so getting around the Filibuster is impossible, and as things stand right now, after Joe Manchin's seat is surrendered, the path to ever getting to 50 Senate Democrats again will always be extremely narrow, bordering on a statistical impossibility as well. Democrats will always be in a holding pattern, hoping and praying that they can keep Republicans from winning a Trifecta, knowing that they might never get one themselves. Other nuclear options, such as expanding the courts, will forever be off the table.

 

22 minutes ago, Aden said:

 

All of this. It's cool to **** on Biden now but everyone is going to fall in line come November 5th. It's not the most popular opinion but it's the truth.

 

No individual serious about advancing progressive legislation is going to sit out for Joe. Elections are more than just individual presidential candidates. Serious voters know it's deeper than that.

A plurality of American citizens do not vote at all. Most Americans did not vote for Joe Biden in 2020, even though he received "the most votes of all time." Americans as a whole are unengaged and do not care about abstractions like "democracy" and "legislation" because nothing ever gets better for them no matter which corrupt party is in charge.

 

Biden can run up engaged suburban women in New York and California and New Jersey for those massive popular vote swings all he wants, but he's deeply unpopular in every single swing state. He is, I'll reiterate, the most unpopular president in nearly 50 years. More unpopular than Trump during COVID. And y'all think he's a shoe-in for re-election??? Get real.  

Edited February 24 by ClashAndBurn

[Bloo]

14 hours ago, Redstreak said:

Those are a lot of ifs and polls, which I’ve been told are unreliable since 2016, rather than the actual experience of Biden having won and all the races won since. Approval is no longer a useful tool when we’ve known that there’s a section of the Republican Party that have lost their minds and will never disapprove, it throws the actual comparison ability moot

Polls have been consistently reliable. People claiming polls aren’t to be trusted plainly do not know how to interpret them. The three states that gave Trump the White House in 2016 had Hillary and Trump at a statistical tie right before Election Day. According to the polls in 2016, it was anyone’s election. Punditry, where people say stupid things like, “there’s no way Trump is gonna beat Hillary” is the actual problem in our political conversations—not polling. 
 

Ignoring data for the sake of it does not make you more informed or wise. 

[Communion]

1 minute ago, Redstreak said:

Personally I think against Trump that Biden will still win, if there were any serious contenders to replace him we’d be hearing about them, especially given you have such a deep investment in it and I haven’t heard any alternatives. But once again I feel like that’s your best case scenario? Surely a loss to Trump would usher in a more favorable future candidate for you yes? By the way how is progressive fetterman and Bernie “can’t say ceasefire” doing?

ddd sis if you're hoping to frame people as cynical for being apathetic to voting, I don't know if bringing up the biggest blow to the idea that elections can lead to progressive outcomes is going to help your case.  But I think this is why we fundamentally disagree on *how* to win elections. And because we have different understandings, you seemingly resent my stance and misconclude that I don't think winning elections is important, yet would someone who felt that way be such a politico?

 

I voted for Clinton in 2016 and *genuinely* believed she'd win after the primary. I genuinely took Bernie's loss in 2016 as a moment to self-reflect - maybe the sense I was getting about politics *was* wrong. Liberals kept insisting incremental progress and abstract representational politics can and do mobilize people. And I believed them! 

 

....and then the numbers for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin came in.

 

And clearly I wasn't the only one spooked given that Biden literally was forced to move to the left on his policies and promises once he became the nominee in 2020.

 

You think I seemingly don't want Trump to be stopped because I understand that people must be convinced to vote, and see my constant anger and tension with the Democratic Party incorrectly as a desire for them to lose. But that's just because you seemingly don't understand that voting is transactional in the mind of the vast majority of Americans. 

[GhostBox]

I hope none of these Michigan “Dems” saying it’s worth risking a Trump win to oppose biden don’t get Medicare or social security 🤷