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Final predictions (1/27): Ariana #1, leading by 17pts


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Posted

who cares. all of that promo is llegal :clap3:

 

A 8th #1 single? yes, and? :clap3:

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Posted
2 hours ago, Green said:

It's coming  :duca:

 

 

"She now occupies the entire top 2" is sending me :deadvision:

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Posted

Billboard will eventually remove all these multiple versions of a song soon enough, gotta take advantage before its gone lol

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, omrimayo said:

Lol 3 days in… discounted, extended versions, lyrics video, all today. She can’t reach 250 points even with CDs and Vinyls opening week, 

she will be number 1 this week but really, all of that for 250 points? 

hate me all you want, this is not the lead we wanted (at least me) and it shows.

yeah I just saw on facebook release of extended and something and I was like "oh gurl why so desperate"

Posted

Enough of the homewrecker fraud! 
:khalyan2:

Posted
1 hour ago, omrimayo said:

Lol 3 days in… discounted, extended versions, lyrics video, all today. She can’t reach 250 points even with CDs and Vinyls opening week, 

she will be number 1 this week but really, all of that for 250 points? 

hate me all you want, this is not the lead we wanted (at least me) and it shows.

Aren’t the CD and vinyl singles not actually shipping until next month? Both are preorder products on her store and the vinyl single specifically says it ships “by February 9th.” The new singles today were the very first additional things that will count for the tracking week, and they don’t seem out of the ordinary in the modern music market.

Posted

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Cruel Summer said:

Aren’t the CD and vinyl singles not actually shipping until next month? Both are preorder products on her store and the vinyl single specifically says it ships “by February 9th.” The new singles today were the very first additional things that will count for the tracking week, and they don’t seem out of the ordinary in the modern music market.

In the UK they shipped today so I doubt they won’t in the US. And to has 5 new versions on week one, day 3 when the competition is that weak (again, 250-ish points), yes, it’s beyond normal or regular. This song will never be a real hit that no one will remember in 5 minutes time, no matter how many times they will try to push it week 1 and pretend.
Hope single 2 will be good and not that weak.

Posted

Watch this be her ME! moment :skull:

Posted
28 minutes ago, omrimayo said:

In the UK they shipped today so I doubt they won’t in the US. And to has 5 new versions on week one, day 3 when the competition is that weak (again, 250-ish points), yes, it’s beyond normal or regular. This song will never be a real hit that no one will remember in 5 minutes time, no matter how many times they will try to push it week 1 and pretend.
Hope single 2 will be good and not that weak.

Do you mean the CDs, vinyl, or both shipped in the UK? What “five new versions” are you counting? Are you counting, like, the lyric video upload as its own version or something? Most singles have those these days anyway - even album tracks. And you’d have to be counting the explicit and non-explicit listing of the extended and instrumental to reach that number too. I feel like this really isn’t half as bad as you’re making it out to be. It’s not a huge debut week, sure, but it’s up against an established hit song that’s rising in points thanks in part to rapidly increasing radio airplay; it doesn’t mean this song is dead on arrival that it didn’t secure the #1 on her name alone. I would be willing to bet this does fine in the long run and becomes a respectable radio hit - writing it off so soon seems misguided and seems like it’s mostly based on you not liking the song.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:

Do you mean the CDs, vinyl, or both shipped in the UK? What “five new versions” are you counting? Are you counting, like, the lyric video upload as its own version or something? Most singles have those these days anyway - even album tracks. And you’d have to be counting the explicit and non-explicit listing of the extended and instrumental to reach that number too. I feel like this really isn’t half as bad as you’re making it out to be. It’s not a huge debut week, sure, but it’s up against an established hit song that’s rising in points thanks in part to rapidly increasing radio airplay; it doesn’t mean this song is dead on arrival that it didn’t secure the #1 on her name alone. I would be willing to bet this does fine in the long run and becomes a respectable radio hit - writing it off so soon seems misguided and seems like it’s mostly based on you not liking the song.

I know about the cds anyway.

 

she has 6 versions on the top 10, yes clean and not clean but all released today. Normal? Yes to Nicki and the BTS people not just to all and not on day 3. All half price. Already! 

 

not counting lyrics video, no, but even that she added today.

 

don’t tell me they are happy from how big of a hit it is when the competition is so weak and they need all this on day 3. I’m sure she’ll get the number 1 now of course.

 

about my taste? Yes I don’t like the song, but also the data shows that it’s falling more than “normal” and that still with being number 1 on any possible playlist and again, only day 3.

 

radio hit? I’m sure you’re right but for big names in general it’s not that hard anyway. A hit? I’m sure in some sort of way but not a HIT. That’s my take, I’ll be glad to talk to you in 2 months and see.

Edited by omrimayo
Posted

How many sales would these new versions have to do for Ariana to close the 7 point gap with jack?

Posted

This changes the landscape, Ari to debut at #1 with a risky single. :duca: (considering house has never been very popular in the States)

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Posted
2 hours ago, MusicLoverDude said:

Watch this be her ME! moment :skull:

Except ME! was going against one of the biggest songs of all time. heh 

Posted

Congrats Ariana for #1 :flame:

Posted
6 hours ago, taylorrrr said:

Except ME! was going against one of the biggest songs of all time. heh 

And had triple of those points... So... 

ME! Is Taylor's worst song for me, but still, it was doing miles better than this bad song.

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Posted
17 hours ago, omrimayo said:

In the UK they shipped today so I doubt they won’t in the US. And to has 5 new versions on week one, day 3 when the competition is that weak (again, 250-ish points), yes, it’s beyond normal or regular. This song will never be a real hit that no one will remember in 5 minutes time, no matter how many times they will try to push it week 1 and pretend.
Hope single 2 will be good and not that weak.

Judge about longevity 4-5 days after a song out? Come on gay, at least wait for a week

Posted
17 hours ago, omrimayo said:

I know about the cds anyway.

 

she has 6 versions on the top 10, yes clean and not clean but all released today. Normal? Yes to Nicki and the BTS people not just to all and not on day 3. All half price. Already! 

 

not counting lyrics video, no, but even that she added today.

 

don’t tell me they are happy from how big of a hit it is when the competition is so weak and they need all this on day 3. I’m sure she’ll get the number 1 now of course.

 

about my taste? Yes I don’t like the song, but also the data shows that it’s falling more than “normal” and that still with being number 1 on any possible playlist and again, only day 3.

 

radio hit? I’m sure you’re right but for big names in general it’s not that hard anyway. A hit? I’m sure in some sort of way but not a HIT. That’s my take, I’ll be glad to talk to you in 2 months and see.

I honestly think this song was not poised to go #1, but it will still be a big sized hit, like NTLTC and GIAW. That was always my prediction.

 

These tactics are a bit desperate, but she is super close, so I guess I understand wanting to make it there. 

Posted
8 hours ago, omrimayo said:

And had triple of those points... So... 

ME! Is Taylor's worst song for me, but still, it was doing miles better than this bad song.

Me! Was incredibly frontloaded that was panned by critics, fans and the GP.

 

It spent 4 weeks in the top 10. Let's see how this one fairs. 

Posted

yoll worry and stress so much. Ari's leading streaming, digital sales and had 3 physical variants being factored in. She will most likely end up with a 5-10% lead over Jack by Friday.

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Posted

Need yall to stfu about desperation as if everyone and their mother hasn’t gamed the charts in the last few years. Like damn we get it…let Ariana have her number 1 for a week! 
 

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Posted

I wish Doja had gamed the charts like this with Kiss Me More in 2021. It deserved #1 way more than Butter, Stay, and Good 4 u.

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Posted

My points prediction:

 

Ari:

- Digital: 25-30K (could end up being more)

- Physicals: 15-18K

- Stream: ~40m

- Radio: ~23m

 

Jack:

- Digital: 5-7k

- Physicals: <1k

- Stream: ~30m

- Radio: ~60m

 

 

The gap between radio will be closed with her sales, as I think she will have a lead of like 40K+ in sales

Posted
56 minutes ago, Maroonx said:

My points prediction:

 

Ari:

- Digital: 25-30K (could end up being more)

- Physicals: 15-18K

- Stream: ~40m

- Radio: ~23m

 

Jack:

- Digital: 5-7k

- Physicals: <1k

- Stream: ~30m

- Radio: ~60m

 

 

The gap between radio will be closed with her sales, as I think she will have a lead of like 40K+ in sales

Funny how Ari's numbers remind me of Lovin on Me's debut week, and how Jack's numbers this week remind me of Cruel Summer's. Anyone that thinks CS was #1 that week, then by that same argument, LoM is the #1 song this week. You can't have it both ways.

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Posted

Ariana stans on twitter are saying new predictions have the song debuting at #2, but I think they’re doing it to freak everyone out so they buy the song more :deadbanana:

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