charts discussion Hot 100 Predictions 11/18/2023: Can Jung Kook challenge PTTR, CS for #1?

[1989]

I hope CS returns to #1 because some members’ constant fuming meltdowns have honestly been funny. 

[QueenofCopyPaste]

Could Dua debut at #1??

 

#1 is 198 points only

 

I hope she does

[Green]

To think that Rich Baby Daddy is Drake's most organic hit of his last album and still can't reach top 10 (top 10 urban, rhythmic and #1 Apple Music)

 

I thought it could reach the top 10 after Taylor's album bomb was over. 

[woohoo]

6 hours ago, naval23 said:

Cruel Summer truly has one of the wildest top 10 runs I've ever seen

 

7-9-8-6-4-3-4-4-5-4-6-6-4-3-9-1-1-6-1

 

The absolute irony that it hasn’t hit #2 or #10 in its run, especially #2 since Taylor has 2848831 #2 hits. 

[naval23]

53 minutes ago, woohoo said:

The absolute irony that it hasn’t hit #2 or #10 in its run, especially #2 since Taylor has 2848831 #2 hits. 

ME! And You Need to Calm Down traumatized her #2 peaks

 

Omg and Lover peaked at #10...

[woohoo]

18 minutes ago, naval23 said:

ME! And You Need to Calm Down traumatized her #2 peaks

 

Omg and Lover peaked at #10...

She better not have anymore number 2 peaks I can’t take it being so close yet so far away. If not number 1 than number 3

[Dula Peep]

Ah perfect time for Dua to drop.. but let’s not jinx it 

[simmnfierzig]

Very bad US Spotify update for Cruel Summer today 

Also down a bit on US Apple Music

[Sweetestsecret]

18 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Very bad US Spotify update for Cruel Summer today 

Also down a bit on US Apple Music

Fans stopped streaming the song. I guess they are happy enough with cruel summer being #1 on hot 100 for two weeks

Edited November 7, 2023 by Sweetestsecret

[slw84]

7 hours ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

Could Dua debut at #1??

 

#1 is 198 points only

 

I hope she does

I second that. After the levitating snub Dua this is all you girl.

I hope she has a radio deal, playlisting and remixes available (if it comes close).

 

Also, I think Cruel Summer has it but they are always going to put headlines that draw attention.

[simmnfierzig]

45 minutes ago, Sweetestsecret said:

Fans stopped streaming the song. I guess they are happy enough with cruel summer being #1 on hot 100 for two weeks

Dont think fans have super much to do with its performance.

The TTH drop might have hurt more on Monday for whatever reason. 

[pride4jc1222]

34 minutes ago, simmnfierzig said:

Dont think fans have super much to do with its performance.

The TTH drop might have hurt more on Monday for whatever reason. 

Yeah, the same thing happened last Monday. I guess the GP is streaming this less because we're getting further away from summer, and towards the holiday season. Plus, the song has been charting for a half year. That is perfectly normal, as even Last Night started to lose streams at that point in its run.

[Green]

9 hours ago, QueenofCopyPaste said:

Could Dua debut at #1??

 

#1 is 198 points only

 

I hope she does

 

The problem is that Dua never debuts with big numbers

[tjspy]

The points are depressingly low... In the whole top10, some weeks ago they were saying that the top10 cutoff was also the lowest in streaming era if I remember correctly. Did the americans stop consuming music?? Some years ago you could see several songs snatching 40M streams in a week in the top10. Now the top positions are fighting for those 15M (off album bombs). 

 

And in the positions 10-20... Well, the amount of songs with 6M streams right now is disturbing - but hey, early 2022 was not much better since we had Ghost or That's What I Want inside the top10 with 6/7M streams too 

 

But what's more concerning is that you don't really see anything climbing - just album bombs. Like, in the top10 is basically eveything falling or stable (and the stable ones end up climbing). Like, even "viral" stuff like Water or Greedy are not that viral and are taking ages to reach higher positions (their power will once again rely on a big radio push - or they won't go further, the "virality" was not big enough alone to put the songs higher).

 

I'm almost scared to see how the charts points will be in January at this rate, with the current hits drawning even more and nothing special coming out in December 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by tjspy

[Green]

The Beatles lost 16k copies for releasing on a Thursday

 

 

[simmnfierzig]

1 hour ago, tjspy said:

The points are depressingly low... In the whole top10, some weeks ago they were saying that the top10 cutoff was also the lowest in streaming era if I remember correctly. Did the americans stop consuming music?? Some years ago you could see several songs snatching 40M streams in a week in the top10. Now the top positions are fighting for those 15M (off album bombs). 

 

And in the positions 10-20... Well, the amount of songs with 6M streams right now is disturbing - but hey, early 2022 was not much better since we had Ghost or That's What I Want inside the top10 with 6/7M streams too 

 

But what's more concerning is that you don't really see anything climbing - just album bombs. Like, in the top10 is basically eveything falling or stable (and the stable ones end up climbing). Like, even "viral" stuff like Water or Greedy are not that viral and are taking ages to reach higher positions (their power will once again rely on a big radio push - or they won't go further, the "virality" was not big enough alone to put the songs higher).

 

I'm almost scared to see how the charts points will be in January at this rate, with the current hits drawning even more and nothing special coming out in December 

 

 

Its just more divided than its ever been. 

Everybody listens to what they want to. And thats great

 

And it makes the Taylor dominance even more insane 

[pride4jc1222]

I think we may be overlooking the possibility that the BTS stans will push Jung Kook's song to #1. Remember that Like Crazy beat out some of the year's biggest songs in Flowers and Last Night, when both had 300+ points, earlier this year. PTTR and CS are certainly beatable. Don't be surprised if Jung Kook's song debuts at #1.

[Green]

38 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I think we may be overlooking the possibility that the BTS stans will push Jung Kook's song to #1. Remember that Like Crazy beat out some of the year's biggest songs in Flowers and Last Night, when both had 300+ points, earlier this year. PTTR and CS are certainly beatable. Don't be surprised if Jung Kook's song debuts at #1.

 

Like Crazy had website sales

[tjspy]

2 hours ago, simmnfierzig said:

Its just more divided than its ever been. 

Everybody listens to what they want to. And thats great

 

And it makes the Taylor dominance even more insane 

Well, I guess. But back in 2018/19 songs had much more streams, and I think people were already streaming what they wanted to, or not? 

 

I can agree it's more divided - I guess - I don't know the data of "total music consumption". 

[lukascharts]

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I think we may be overlooking the possibility that the BTS stans will push Jung Kook's song to #1. Remember that Like Crazy beat out some of the year's biggest songs in Flowers and Last Night, when both had 300+ points, earlier this year. PTTR and CS are certainly beatable. Don't be surprised if Jung Kook's song debuts at #1.

Nobody's overlooking that possibility. If they couldn't push 3D to even the top 2, they aren't pushing this to #1. Standing Next To You is doing worse on streaming than 3D is and is likely doing less physicals. Like Crazy only debuted #1 because of website sales, which were deleted later that year.

 

None of the versions can even surpass The Beatles' song, which is reported to have not done well in sales on Friday (hence why it's not predicted top 10) and might be even lower now. All of the new versions are probably selling 5K max this week, which is only 40K extra sales (and 40 extra points on the Hot 100). And given those were already factored into the #6 prediction, safe to say a push is basically impossible. (And yes, this does mean the original is selling less than The Beatles is).

[Maroonx]

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

I think we may be overlooking the possibility that the BTS stans will push Jung Kook's song to #1. Remember that Like Crazy beat out some of the year's biggest songs in Flowers and Last Night, when both had 300+ points, earlier this year. PTTR and CS are certainly beatable. Don't be surprised if Jung Kook's song debuts at #1.

I don't think Junk Kock has a chance tbh, even with 8 remixes, the song is far behind in points.

[Holiest Dreams]

5 hours ago, tjspy said:

The points are depressingly low... In the whole top10, some weeks ago they were saying that the top10 cutoff was also the lowest in streaming era if I remember correctly. Did the americans stop consuming music?? Some years ago you could see several songs snatching 40M streams in a week in the top10. Now the top positions are fighting for those 15M (off album bombs). 

 

And in the positions 10-20... Well, the amount of songs with 6M streams right now is disturbing - but hey, early 2022 was not much better since we had Ghost or That's What I Want inside the top10 with 6/7M streams too 

 

But what's more concerning is that you don't really see anything climbing - just album bombs. Like, in the top10 is basically eveything falling or stable (and the stable ones end up climbing). Like, even "viral" stuff like Water or Greedy are not that viral and are taking ages to reach higher positions (their power will once again rely on a big radio push - or they won't go further, the "virality" was not big enough alone to put the songs higher).

 

I'm almost scared to see how the charts points will be in January at this rate, with the current hits drawning even more and nothing special coming out in December 

 

 

 

58 minutes ago, tjspy said:

Well, I guess. But back in 2018/19 songs had much more streams, and I think people were already streaming what they wanted to, or not? 

 

I can agree it's more divided - I guess - I don't know the data of "total music consumption". 

Overall music consumption is bigger than ever, it’s just that it’s spreading out amongst more artists, their catalogues, etc etc. It does make the songs at the top not quite as dominant as they used to be, but if we’re comparing to the late 10s it’s really not much difference at all.

 

The main reason they’re so low is continuous rule changes. The points look low because - biggest reason - UGC streams aren’t counted anymore since… end of 2019 I think. Or how radio audience has gone down a bunch compared to years ago (ie 90M for #1 now vs 150-250M years ago). I believe the weight of sales has also been reduced but someone else feel free to check me on that because I’m not totally sure. Then there’s YouTube dying out for western acts.
 

Basically, songs aren’t much weaker charts-wise right now than they were a few years ago, it’s just a combination of a bunch of factors that have made the points so low. All those hits with 500+ points back in 2018-2019 would be doing 200 something now at best, with the same level of success they had back then.

[pride4jc1222]

43 minutes ago, Holiest Dreams said:

 

Overall music consumption is bigger than ever, it’s just that it’s spreading out amongst more artists, their catalogues, etc etc. It does make the songs at the top not quite as dominant as they used to be, but if we’re comparing to the late 10s it’s really not much difference at all.

 

The main reason they’re so low is continuous rule changes. The points look low because - biggest reason - UGC streams aren’t counted anymore since… end of 2019 I think. Or how radio audience has gone down a bunch compared to years ago (ie 90M for #1 now vs 150-250M years ago). I believe the weight of sales has also been reduced but someone else feel free to check me on that because I’m not totally sure. Then there’s YouTube dying out for western acts.
 

Basically, songs aren’t much weaker charts-wise right now than they were a few years ago, it’s just a combination of a bunch of factors that have made the points so low. All those hits with 500+ points back in 2018-2019 would be doing 200 something now at best, with the same level of success they had back then.

I find it messed up how UGC was removed from the Hot 100, but 4 years later, fanbases can still take advantage of sales to manipulate the Hot 100.

[tjspy]

49 minutes ago, Holiest Dreams said:

 

Overall music consumption is bigger than ever, it’s just that it’s spreading out amongst more artists, their catalogues, etc etc. It does make the songs at the top not quite as dominant as they used to be, but if we’re comparing to the late 10s it’s really not much difference at all.

 

The main reason they’re so low is continuous rule changes. The points look low because - biggest reason - UGC streams aren’t counted anymore since… end of 2019 I think. Or how radio audience has gone down a bunch compared to years ago (ie 90M for #1 now vs 150-250M years ago). I believe the weight of sales has also been reduced but someone else feel free to check me on that because I’m not totally sure. Then there’s YouTube dying out for western acts.
 

Basically, songs aren’t much weaker charts-wise right now than they were a few years ago, it’s just a combination of a bunch of factors that have made the points so low. All those hits with 500+ points back in 2018-2019 would be doing 200 something now at best, with the same level of success they had back then.

I'm surprised that the big hits had all that impact from UGC (I thought the reason they stopped counting was precisely the fact that, with YouTube death, UGC there became irrelevant), because hit songs 4/5 years ago easily had 20/30M a week, if in Top10, and now they are in the 12-17M spectrum. I reaaally doubt this is all UGC and I do think, at least for the big hits, streaming is weaker than it was before. 

 

Personally, I also think that people switching YouTube to TikTok can have some guilt on this. 

[Holiest Dreams]

47 minutes ago, tjspy said:

I'm surprised that the big hits had all that impact from UGC (I thought the reason they stopped counting was precisely the fact that, with YouTube death, UGC there became irrelevant), because hit songs 4/5 years ago easily had 20/30M a week, if in Top10, and now they are in the 12-17M spectrum. I reaaally doubt this is all UGC and I do think, at least for the big hits, streaming is weaker than it was before. 

 

Personally, I also think that people switching YouTube to TikTok can have some guilt on this. 

Yeah, they really did have a big impact. For example, I think a massive chunk of Old Town Road’s streams came from UGC. But it would definitely depend on the type of hit, some were much more carried than others. As far as YouTube dying, I imagine UGC wouldn’t generate nearly as much these days.
 

And it’s true that so many things have impacted YouTube’s influence on music  TikTok, Spotify, Apple/Amazon Music, Instagram reels… pretty much all of those platforms took away from it. I do miss the days when music videos were still events and would get massive views that contributed to their chart runs, I’ll say that much.