charts discussion Final predictions (10/21): Drake/J. Cole #1, Drake/Yeat #2

[B-Luke]

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by B-Luke

[Jolin Tsai]

 J. Cole finally has #1 single.

[LCTV]

As long as it serves #1 to #9 to #17 etc like all his other releases lately I don't care.

[slw84]

Happy for J. Cole and Drake.

[B-Luke]

Drake once again shaking the Hot 100 up big time

[Devin]

Hope Cole finally gets his first #1 

[Green]

45 minutes ago, B-Luke said:

Drake once again shaking the Hot 100 up big time

 

So that means he could tie Taylor's record if it wasn't for Paint the Town Red   

[Steve Johnson]

20 minutes ago, B-Luke said:

Drake once again shaking the Hot 100 up big time

Hope he pushes Calm down out of charts. 

[Johnny Jacobs]

All of his recent number ones are such a non event. It's embarrassing 

[Green]

37 minutes ago, Steve Johnson said:

Hope he pushes Calm down out of charts. 

 

Same here. I like the song but 57 weeks is enough for an airplay fueled hit.

[Ger]

 

[B-Luke]

Doja saves Taylor‘s record.

[Carrie-is-no-1]

449 points in the new system is insane tho  his power

[mypaintoyou]

Stream PTTR

[corotinho]

37 minutes ago, Green said:

 

Same here. I like the song but 57 weeks is enough for an airplay fueled hit.

Youtube:

 

Remix: 776M

Solo: 556M

 

Spotify:

 

Remix: 1.052B

Solo: 490M

 

2.874B streams coming only from Youtube and Spotify and the remix has only a year of release  a REAL airplay fueled hit 

[Axelios]

1 minute ago, corotinho said:

Youtube:

 

Remix: 776M

Solo: 556M

 

Spotify:

 

Remix: 1.052B

Solo: 490M

 

2.874B streams coming only from Youtube and Spotify and the remix has only a year of release  a REAL airplay fueled hit 

These are global streams not US. Its US streams are not great compared to the airplay it got

[corotinho]

Just now, Axelios said:

These are global streams not US. Its US streams are not great compared to the airplay it got

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Most Streamed Songs in U.S. (On-Demand Audio & Video Combined)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (750.7 million)
2. SZA, “Kill Bill” (701.2 million)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (642.8 million)
4. PinkPantheress, “Boy’s a Liar” (580.7 million)
5. Lady Gaga, “Bloody Mary” (531.7 million)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (486.3 million)
7. Twisted featuring Oliver Tree, “Worth Nothing” (462.7 million)
8. J. Cole featuring Amber Coffman & The Cults, “She Knows” (455.6 million)
9. Fifty Fifty, “Cupid” (427.7 million)
10. Lil Uzi Vert, “Just Wanna Rock” (416.1 million)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Selling Digital Songs in U.S.
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (380,000)
2. Jimin, “Like Crazy” (289,000)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (217,000)
4. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (126,000)
5. Beyoncé, “Cuff It” (119,000)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (110,000)
7. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (97,000)
8. Lainey Wilson, “Heart Like a Truck” (89,000)
9. Ice Spice, “Princess Diana” (87,000)
10. Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (86,000)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Radio Songs in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (2.409 billion)
2. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage, “Creepin’” (2.359 billion)
3. SZA, “Kill Bill” (1.909 billion)
4. The Weeknd, “Die for You” (1.877 billion)
5. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (1.730 billion)
6. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha, “I’m Good (Blue)” (1.691 billion)
7. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (1.580 billion)
8. Harry Styles, “As It Was” (1.362 billion)
9. Sam Smith & Kim Petras, “Unholy” (1.275 billion)
10. Chris Brown, “Under the Influence” (1.142 billion)

 

#6 Streaming

#6 Sales

#7 Radio

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/morgan-wallen-miley-cyrus-luminate-midyear-2023-charts-1235369968/

I need the receipts 

[rac7d]

1 hour ago, Green said:

 

So that means he could tie Taylor's record if it wasn't for Paint the Town Red   

This album gonna hurt him in the long run 

[Green]

49 minutes ago, corotinho said:

Youtube:

 

Remix: 776M

Solo: 556M

 

Spotify:

 

Remix: 1.052B

Solo: 490M

 

2.874B streams coming only from Youtube and Spotify and the remix has only a year of release  a REAL airplay fueled hit 

 

Those are global streams. 

 

51 minutes ago, corotinho said:

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Most Streamed Songs in U.S. (On-Demand Audio & Video Combined)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (750.7 million)
2. SZA, “Kill Bill” (701.2 million)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (642.8 million)
4. PinkPantheress, “Boy’s a Liar” (580.7 million)
5. Lady Gaga, “Bloody Mary” (531.7 million)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (486.3 million)
7. Twisted featuring Oliver Tree, “Worth Nothing” (462.7 million)
8. J. Cole featuring Amber Coffman & The Cults, “She Knows” (455.6 million)
9. Fifty Fifty, “Cupid” (427.7 million)
10. Lil Uzi Vert, “Just Wanna Rock” (416.1 million)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Selling Digital Songs in U.S.
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (380,000)
2. Jimin, “Like Crazy” (289,000)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (217,000)
4. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (126,000)
5. Beyoncé, “Cuff It” (119,000)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (110,000)
7. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (97,000)
8. Lainey Wilson, “Heart Like a Truck” (89,000)
9. Ice Spice, “Princess Diana” (87,000)
10. Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (86,000)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Radio Songs in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (2.409 billion)
2. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage, “Creepin’” (2.359 billion)
3. SZA, “Kill Bill” (1.909 billion)
4. The Weeknd, “Die for You” (1.877 billion)
5. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (1.730 billion)
6. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha, “I’m Good (Blue)” (1.691 billion)
7. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (1.580 billion)
8. Harry Styles, “As It Was” (1.362 billion)
9. Sam Smith & Kim Petras, “Unholy” (1.275 billion)
10. Chris Brown, “Under the Influence” (1.142 billion)

 

#6 Streaming

#6 Sales

#7 Radio

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/morgan-wallen-miley-cyrus-luminate-midyear-2023-charts-1235369968/

I need the receipts 

That's a midyear report. We are in October

 

Sure it's a big hit but right now it's airplay fueled

 

#4 radio

#37 streaming

#21 sales

 

Radio is the main reason it's still top 10 on the hot 100. That's why I'm saying 57 weeks is more than enough

[By the Water]

Yeah, there’s a pretty good chance he gets his first multi-week #1 in a while

[pride4jc1222]

20 minutes ago, By the Water said:

Yeah, there’s a pretty good chance he gets his first multi-week #1 in a while

Way 2 Sexy and Rich Flex should have been multi-week #1's. W2S had 67M first week streams and 5 weeks at #1 on streaming (not to mention a 4-week #1 on the Rolling Stone chart), while RF had 59M first week streams and 3 weeks at #1 on streaming. Don't forget that Rich Men North of Richmond was a multi-week #1 despite not reaching W2S and RF's first week streaming numbers until Week 3. RMNoR's best streaming week was less than 23M streams, its only week at #1 on streaming.

 

I bet you Taylor is going to rain on Drake's multi-week #1 (again), with the tour film pushing Cruel Summer to #1.

Edited October 7, 2023 by pride4jc1222

[corotinho]

45 minutes ago, Green said:

 

Those are global streams. 

 

That's a midyear report. We are in October

 

Sure it's a big hit but right now it's airplay fueled

 

#4 radio

#37 streaming

#21 sales

 

Radio is the main reason it's still top 10 on the hot 100. That's why I'm saying 57 weeks is more than enough

Easy to say it's a now fueled radio hit when it's doing numbers for over a year and radio only came on board with the hit for some months ago 

[Taylena]

I don't know why they do predictions after only 1 day. It's obviously gonna drop a lot in streams during the week. 

[imabadkid]

so this means he breaks Michael Jackson's record right? LEGEND!

[slas]

While day 1 predictions are pretty inaccurate overall, they do take into account streaming drops of the album, but tend to be slightly overoptimistic on the first day, looking at GUTS:

 

GUTS day 1 (vs. final predictions):

#1. vampire (final #1)

#6. bad idea right? (final #7, -1)

#10. get him back! (final #11, -1)

#12. all-american ***** (final #13, -1)

#14. the grudge (final #16, -2)

#16. making the bed (final #19, -3)

#17. logical (final #20, -3)

#18. ballad of a homeschooled girl (final #24, -6)

#23. love is embarrassing (final #25, -2)

#25. pretty isn't pretty (final #29, -4)

 

Drake also lost 6 hours of tracking, which deflated Friday's #s, and further complicates any predictions made

 

9 of the top 10 is probably still more likely than not, tbh

17/20 is far less certain