charts discussion Final predictions (10/21): Drake/J. Cole #1, Drake/Yeat #2

[Anti-Hero]

If Drake did not release, CS would be no. 2 

[pride4jc1222]

For those wondering, here are the records for the highest song to fall off due to recurrency rules:

 

#15 - Plug Walk (fell off after 20 weeks due to Scorpion) - record for all songs falling off due to the 50/20 rule

#16 - Save Your Tears (fell off after 69 weeks due to I Never Liked You) - record for all songs falling off due to the 25/52 rule

 

Pretty odd that the overall record is held by one that fell off due to the 50/20 rule, instead of the 25/52 rule. Calm Down would certainly break the record if it were to go recurrent, and if it were to sneak out a Top 10 spot on the 10/14 chart, it would be the first song ever to go recurrent from the Top 10.

Edited October 7, 2023 by pride4jc1222

[corotinho]

8 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

For those wondering, here are the records for the highest song to fall off due to recurrency rules:

 

#15 - Plug Walk (fell off after 20 weeks due to Scorpion) - record for all songs falling off due to the 50/20 rule

#16 - Save Your Tears (fell off after 69 weeks due to I Never Liked You) - record for all songs falling off due to the 25/52 rule

 

Pretty odd that the overall record is held by one that fell off due to the 50/20 rule, instead of the 25/52 rule. Calm Down would certainly break the record if it were to go recurrent, and if it were to sneak out a Top 10 spot on the 10/14 chart, it would be the first song ever to go recurrent from the Top 10.

It has a chance to chart again at the top25 if it has enough points?

[luckythisway]

1 hour ago, corotinho said:

It has a chance to chart again at the top25 if it has enough points?

Only if it’s increasing in points the week it’d be reentering, I believe 

[Maroonx]

those are insane points... I am not surprised tbh

[naval23]

If Cruel Summer rebounds 13-1 next week thats going to be such an insane chart run 

[naval23]

2 hours ago, Anti-Hero said:

If Drake did not release, CS would be no. 2 

Omg 

 

If #2 ends up it's peak I'm gonna scream

[Anti-Hero]

1 hour ago, naval23 said:

Omg 

 

If #2 ends up it's peak I'm gonna scream

Lover is truly cursed if that happens 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Anti-Hero

[Azulito]

4 hours ago, slas said:

While day 1 predictions are pretty inaccurate overall, they do take into account streaming drops of the album, but tend to be slightly overoptimistic on the first day, looking at GUTS:

 

GUTS day 1 (vs. final predictions):

#1. vampire (final #1)

#6. bad idea right? (final #7, -1)

#10. get him back! (final #11, -1)

#12. all-american ***** (final #13, -1)

#14. the grudge (final #16, -2)

#16. making the bed (final #19, -3)

#17. logical (final #20, -3)

#18. ballad of a homeschooled girl (final #24, -6)

#23. love is embarrassing (final #25, -2)

#25. pretty isn't pretty (final #29, -4)

 

Drake also lost 6 hours of tracking, which deflated Friday's #s, and further complicates any predictions made

 

9 of the top 10 is probably still more likely than not, tbh

17/20 is far less certain

The points matter more than positions tbh. Even with big drops throughout the week it looks like 8/10 will be a lock. If his numbers hold throughout the week and he releases a video for one of the songs between #11 and #14, he could possibly even take the entire top 10

[Katamari]

congrats to jcole  

 

it is the most eventful song on the album tbh everyone is talking about how cole washed him tho

Edited October 8, 2023 by Katamari

[Rico Shameless v2]

A lot of the smashes at the end of the album will grow through the week me thinks. Rich Baby Daddy, Another Late Night and Gently may grow in points. They’re already moving forward on Apple Music, got to see how Spotify shows.

[Michael196]

15 hours ago, naval23 said:

If Cruel Summer rebounds 13-1 next week thats going to be such an insane chart run 

Blank Space went #1 by jumping from #13 and replacing SIO in it’s third week… 18-13-1x7 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Michael196

[By the Water]

The drop in points 

[MALAMENTE]

It better drop even more. I need Calm Down to get to 60 weeks at least

[AndThenTheCocaine]

29 minutes ago, By the Water said:

The drop in points 

8 out of 10 now, oh... 

[MALAMENTE]

On 10/7/2023 at 12:31 PM, Steve Johnson said:

Hope he pushes Calm down out of charts. 

Always breaking heels. Pathetic 

[JawBreaker]

So wait Cruel summer might still remain top 10?

[Green]

I guess that First Person Shooter will be another one week #1 for Drake 

 

A week after it will be Paint the town Vs. Cruel Summer for the #1 (if her movie has a big effect)

[Ms. Togekiss]

Cruel summer needs to go #2 at least 

[dabunique]

1 hour ago, Green said:

I guess that First Person Shooter will be another one week #1 for Drake 

 

A week after it will be Paint the town Vs. Cruel Summer for the #1 (if her movie has a big effect)

PTTR will be goin for da record dat week for most weeks at number one for a solo female rap song 

[Green]

39 minutes ago, dabunique said:

PTTR will be goin for da record dat week for most weeks at number one for a solo female rap song 

 

According to Billboard Truth Hurts has that record now:

 

The truth can hurt, but not in Lizzo‘s case. Her breakout hit “Truth Hurts” is officially the longest-running Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 by a solo female rapper, and the 31-year-old can’t believe it — nor can her 9-year-old self.

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/lizzo-reaction-truth-hurts-hot-100-record-8530789/

[dabunique]

2 minutes ago, Green said:

 

According to Billboard Truth Hurts has that record now:

 

The truth can hurt, but not in Lizzo‘s case. Her breakout hit “Truth Hurts” is officially the longest-running Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 by a solo female rapper, and the 31-year-old can’t believe it — nor can her 9-year-old self.

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/rb-hip-hop/lizzo-reaction-truth-hurts-hot-100-record-8530789/

well then 4 more weeks then lol

[TiaTamera]

On 10/7/2023 at 7:30 AM, corotinho said:

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Most Streamed Songs in U.S. (On-Demand Audio & Video Combined)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (750.7 million)
2. SZA, “Kill Bill” (701.2 million)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (642.8 million)
4. PinkPantheress, “Boy’s a Liar” (580.7 million)
5. Lady Gaga, “Bloody Mary” (531.7 million)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (486.3 million)
7. Twisted featuring Oliver Tree, “Worth Nothing” (462.7 million)
8. J. Cole featuring Amber Coffman & The Cults, “She Knows” (455.6 million)
9. Fifty Fifty, “Cupid” (427.7 million)
10. Lil Uzi Vert, “Just Wanna Rock” (416.1 million)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Selling Digital Songs in U.S.
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (380,000)
2. Jimin, “Like Crazy” (289,000)
3. Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (217,000)
4. Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (126,000)
5. Beyoncé, “Cuff It” (119,000)
6. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (110,000)
7. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (97,000)
8. Lainey Wilson, “Heart Like a Truck” (89,000)
9. Ice Spice, “Princess Diana” (87,000)
10. Jelly Roll, “Need a Favor” (86,000)

 

2023’s Midyear Top 10 Radio Songs in U.S. (Based on Audience Impressions)
1. Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (2.409 billion)
2. Metro Boomin, The Weeknd & 21 Savage, “Creepin’” (2.359 billion)
3. SZA, “Kill Bill” (1.909 billion)
4. The Weeknd, “Die for You” (1.877 billion)
5. Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (1.730 billion)
6. David Guetta & Bebe Rexha, “I’m Good (Blue)” (1.691 billion)
7. Rema & Selena Gomez, “Calm Down” (1.580 billion)
8. Harry Styles, “As It Was” (1.362 billion)
9. Sam Smith & Kim Petras, “Unholy” (1.275 billion)
10. Chris Brown, “Under the Influence” (1.142 billion)

 

#6 Streaming

#6 Sales

#7 Radio

 

https://www.billboard.com/music/chart-beat/morgan-wallen-miley-cyrus-luminate-midyear-2023-charts-1235369968/

I need the receipts 

Wow them single sales are tragic. Artist used to pull those numbers first week 

[Holiest Dreams]

I think Cruel Summer and Snooze will both remain top 10 at this rate 

[dabunique]

12 hours ago, By the Water said:

The drop in points 

So

 

PTTR at 5

CS at 10

Snooze at 11