charts discussion Hot 100: Very early predictions. Flowers x Kill Bill x Last Night

[besaid]

11 hours ago, PurrKaty said:

I thought billboard cracked down on the fraudulent sales? Justice for Levitating!! Wonder what it’s airplay and streams are.

Terrible like all BTS/kpop songs. It'll fly off the chart in 2 weeks and their stans will be thrilled with 90 copies of the single each. BB said they were cracking down on the fraud but there's a lot of ways around it and those stans treat chart performance like the olympics. 

[Rosenda]

Just shut down iTunes ffs.

[pride4jc1222]

4 hours ago, besaid said:

Terrible like all BTS/kpop songs. It'll fly off the chart in 2 weeks and their stans will be thrilled with 90 copies of the single each. BB said they were cracking down on the fraud but there's a lot of ways around it and those stans treat chart performance like the olympics. 

Actually, Like Crazy's streams are okay. It's beating Ed's new song by over 3.5M streams: 

 

[Jude]

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS

[pride4jc1222]

14 minutes ago, Jude said:

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS 

 

GET RID OF PURE SALES FROM H100 FORMULA FFS

lol, I’ve been saying this for almost a year now. That said, Like Crazy felt like the bigger song than Eyes Closed this week, so if we remove sales, then we’ll need to lower the weight to keep things in balance.

[Katamari]

22 hours ago, Green said:

Her dedication

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And that was only the last 2 days. There's more from Rafranz alone but I'm too lazy too post them all   

Weirdos 

[Green]

 

 

 

They are predicting 234k filtered sales for Like Crazy but according to HDD Jimin had a 22,500 TEA which means 225k total tracks sales for his album (which includes all the songs of his album/EP). How did he sell 234k for Like Crazy alone then?   

[shelven]

It's really starting to feel like the only solution to make the Hot 100 credible again is to either outright remove digital sales from the chart, or implement some sort of formula that significantly lowers the weight of sales for a song that has more than X number of versions/remixes. I don't see what else you can do to fix this if an artist can still release 17 different versions of the same song and have their rabid stans buy all 17 in the same week.

 

At the very least, they need to ban website sales entirely and limit sales to a set number of official third-party retailers like iTunes and Amazon. I know there's still ways for stans to manipulate sales on those platforms, but it seems harder than on an artist's own website where there's zero oversight.

[fridayteenage]

12 hours ago, besaid said:

Terrible like all BTS/kpop songs. It'll fly off the chart in 2 weeks and their stans will be thrilled with 90 copies of the single each. BB said they were cracking down on the fraud but there's a lot of ways around it and those stans treat chart performance like the olympics. 

well, the stans will be the future entrepreneurs and tacticians of the future, this is training

 

 

[Hurem]

44 minutes ago, Green said:

They are predicting 234k filtered sales for Like Crazy but according to HDD Jimin had a 22,500 TEA which means 225k total tracks sales for his album (which includes all the songs of his album/EP). How did he sell 234k for Like Crazy alone then?   

Are the remixes and alternate versions included on the album? If not, maybe that's why

[Brando]

The fact that BB has been in the business for so many decades and they still can't figure out how to measure popularity properly and avoid fraud 

[Green]

3 hours ago, Hurem said:

Are the remixes and alternate versions included on the album? If not, maybe that's why

 

They were included for Taylor when she released the Anti-hero remixes.

 

Maybe HDD underestimated Jimin's numbers

[rcksluke]

Can Billboard do something? This is just atrocious.

[besaid]

12 hours ago, Rosenda said:

Just shut down iTunes ffs.

It's not iTunes. It's just the same freakshow that follow this band and buy dozens of versions of their singles over and over each week to make it look like their fave is popular and relevant in America when its literally just them spamming discounted singles from his/bts website. Billboard counts it because they're terrified of the press if they change.

Edited April 1, 2023 by besaid

[Element]

Now see this is so annoying that this random song can get a #1 but a huge hit like Kill Bill can’t 

[MusicLoverDude]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:41 AM, pride4jc1222 said:

I don’t think TKoLWM should be allowed to re-enter (again). It’s already gone recurrent twice, and it’s not like it’s getting a new push on radio (Luke’s already sent 2 or 3 singles after TKoLWM). If they allow it back on to the charts this week, then they might as well get rid of all recurrent rules because recurrency will have pretty much lost all its meaning at that point.

It already lost meaning when they allowed She Likes It by Russell Dickerson to chart for over 30 weeks despite never peaking in the Top 60 - there were songs that were Top 40 hits last year that didn't make the year-end list but that flop did. 

 

Same with Freestyle by Lil Baby still charting despite clearly not going anywhere.

 

Radio is a major problem on the bottom half of the Hot 100

[family.guy123]

2 hours ago, Brando said:

The fact that BB has been in the business for so many decades and they still can't figure out how to measure popularity properly and avoid fraud 

It’s a feature not a bug. Obviously. 

[TheArgonaut]

Poor SZA 

[PurrKaty]

2 hours ago, Element said:

Now see this is so annoying that this random song can get a #1 but a huge hit like Kill Bill can’t 

Agreed

[pride4jc1222]

Other predictions: 

 

 

[brianc33710]

I think that any sales >50k should count 1/2 the amount of the 1st 50. BUT I also think that any streams >50 million should count 1/2 the 1st 50 million. No 1 metric should carry a song too much--be it airplay, downloads or streaming. Airplay should probably have a sliding scale too but I don't know what that cutoff should be. 100 million seems too high & 50 million too low.

[brianc33710]

On 4/1/2023 at 5:14 PM, MusicLoverDude said:

It already lost meaning when they allowed She Likes It by Russell Dickerson to chart for over 30 weeks despite never peaking in the Top 60 - there were songs that were Top 40 hits last year that didn't make the year-end list but that flop did. 

 

Same with Freestyle by Lil Baby still charting despite clearly not going anywhere.

 

Radio is a major problem on the bottom half of the Hot 100

Yes BB should change the Hot 100 RC rule to 50/26 so Country Airplay songs don't have an unusual advantage.