news Poll: Trump +15 over DeSantis, dominating field with working class Republicans

[Communion]

Is the GOP headed for its own suburbanites vs working class class conflict? 

Edited March 19, 2023 by Communion

[Blue Monday]

DeSantis is not gonna happen; the MAGRATS don’t want Trump-lite 

[Archetype]

Can Nikki please gain more traction so we don’t have to worry about Tr*mp or Diet Tr*mp?  She’s also trash but at least she’s not insane.  

[WildAmerican]

1 minute ago, Archetype said:

but at least she’s not insane.  

which is exactly why she'll tank 

[CaptainMusic]

This is surprising, I thought Desantis had replaced Trump based on his fuming. 

[Orsay]

it’s really gonna be Biden vs Trump again?  i bet Trump wins this time

[Shinning]

If Americans elect Trump yet again  

I'd just move out if I was a discriminated minority. 

[GhostBox]

It’s gonna be trump vs Biden again. Biden will squeak out another electoral college win. Trump will cry fraud…..again. Then a gop president will come in 2028

[GhostBox]

2 minutes ago, Shinning said:

If Americans elect Trump yet again  

I'd just move out if I was a discriminated minority. 

He’s gonna pander way more to that part of his base this time. He already has started it. 

[Shinning]

Just now, GhostBox said:

He’s gonna pander way more to that part of his base this time. He already has started it. 

Well to be honest Biden won by a tiny margin so he'd have to have a stellar mandate to be re-elected. And let's just say he has not had a stellar mandate.

[GhostBox]

1 minute ago, Shinning said:

Well to be honest Biden won by a tiny margin so he'd have to have a stellar mandate to be re-elected. And let's just say he has not had a stellar mandate.

He has a pretty decent record to run on. 
I think a lot of progressives may have wanted more. But we have made alot of progress. Especially compared to if trump would’ve won re-election. 
 

[Communion]

7 minutes ago, Shinning said:

If Americans elect Trump yet again  

I'd just move out if I was a discriminated minority. 

It's a bit damning that young, working class voters seem to have far more influence in the GOP than Democratic Party.

 

Crosstabs show that Trump is not only the preferred candidate for the working class, but also the young. 

 

Under Age 45: Trump +22
Age 45+: Trump +11

 

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2023/02/February-19-22-2023_Complete_Cross-Tabs_February-26-Release.pdf

[45seconds]

11 minutes ago, Orsay said:

it’s really gonna be Biden vs Trump again?  i bet Trump wins this time

He won’t 
He doesn’t even have Fox behind this time and Desantis will take a huge chunk out of him if he does primary (and lose). 

[Wolf Alice]

1 hour ago, Communion said:

It's a bit damning that young, working class voters seem to have far more influence in the GOP than Democratic Party.

 

Crosstabs show that Trump is not only the preferred candidate for the working class, but also the young. 

 

Under Age 45: Trump +22
Age 45+: Trump +11

 

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2023/02/February-19-22-2023_Complete_Cross-Tabs_February-26-Release.pdf

Do we know the size of these age groups for each of these parties? I assume (and hope) that a majority of under 35s must be democrats or independent 

[Communion]

5 minutes ago, Wolf Alice said:

Do we know the size of these age groups for each of these parties? I assume (and hope) that a majority of under 35s must be democrats or independent 

 

45~ seems to be the point where they become equal, with young people breaking for Dems by double-digits.

 

This lowkey making the reality worse though, as young people are numerically much smaller of a portion of the Republican party, but have seem to garner influence and power in a way that young Dems have not (young Democrats broke for Sanders like 70% over all others in 2020, yet party elites rejected him).

 

The working class numbers are a bit more complex - historically, Republicans have been the party of 1% elites, but the last 20 years have seen most people in poverty go from voting for Dems to not voting at all, with Republicans slightly growing an edge with working class voters over Dems due to Dem-leaning working class voters becoming removed from the elections process.

 

[shyboi]

I refuse to believe Trump is gonna happen again

[Kylizzle]

DeSatan wasted all his midterms hype. The fact that we're almost 10 years into the Trump era and he's still gonna be their nominee 

 

[midnightdawn]

I mean DeSantis hasn't even announced yet. He only needs to snatch 8% off Trump to be in the lead.

Then again, he could tank once the campaigning and debates start.

[industry baby]

2 hours ago, Orsay said:

it’s really gonna be Biden vs Trump again?  i bet Trump wins this time

Yes and thats because Biden is one of the biggest disaster and disappointment ever happened to US 

[Sesame]

I’m still baffled by how the lower/working class are in favor of trump for another term despite everything he did that hurt them during his presidency. His “tax cuts” propaganda where they all paid SLIGHTLY less taxes for a couple years when the bill was written to gradually increase them back, and have them paying MORE within a decade. 

 

So many trumpers I know love to spout that he lowered taxes, but don’t know the entire reality of it. Even Paul Ryan dipped out after getting it passed. 

[Thickorita]

DeSanctimonious is not going to work outside of Florida.

[Rotunda]

2 hours ago, Shinning said:

Well to be honest Biden won by a tiny margin so he'd have to have a stellar mandate to be re-elected. And let's just say he has not had a stellar mandate.

Not really. Incumbency favors Biden. The fact that Trump lost despite incumbency advantage, and during a time of national emergency (where people are usually more resistant to change) shows Trump’s weakness. This isn’t even factoring in now the midterms were uncharacteristically good for the Dems, that Dobbs is still on minds, and that the election fraud narrative has backfired on the right.

 

I am far from a Biden fan, but he’s decently positioned against Trump. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Rotunda

[Chemist]

DeSantis is more damgerous than Trump tbh. Trumpism is on itsway out looking at how his candidates TANKED in a GOP favourable midterms

[Helios]

That local man is irrelevant outside of his state. We been knew. If Trump isnt in jail it will be him vs Biden the re-up.

[Communion]

17 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

Not really. Incumbency favors Biden. The fact that Trump lost despite incumbency advantage, and during a time of national emergency (where people are usually more resistant to change) shows Trump’s weakness. This isn’t even factoring in now the midterms were uncharacteristically good for the Dems, that Dobbs is still on minds, and that the election fraud narrative has backfired on the right.

 

I am far from a Biden fan, but he’s decently positioned against Trump. 

This ignores that Biden's margins were what they were due to young Democratic voters, who act in the way opposite of what you're suggesting. An emergency pandemic was going to benefit Biden more as the candidate young voters more aligned with, especially when the threat of a global pandemic increased their likelihood to vote.

 

The idea that an incumbent should benefit from traditional emergency situations like in other countries ignores that way modern polarization has settled into American politics, and done so along race, age and class lines.

 

So while the conventional wisdom would be "the pandemic should have benefited Trump as the incumbent," it largely didn't work that way. Dems understand this "democracy is on the line" language, which is why they deploy it now every 2 years. The issue is that, while it may work in 2020 + 2022, it explicitly didn't work in 2016, especially for the very demographics that they expected it would (young, poor, POC).

 

How many young people are going to come out in droves in 2024 if student debt forgiveness fails and all the pandemic provisions that made life better now no longer exist? And the threat of "Trump will take such away" is empty? It's very easy for the same material conditions that bred indifference in the Midwest to Trump winning to re-occur.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Communion