Final BB Hot 100 Predictions - #1 AIWFCIY, Jackson 5 score 1st Top 40 Hit in 38 Years

[simmnfierzig]

6 hours ago, unison stan said:

she will be most likely after christmas 

Those percentage changes for 2 more weeks:

 

Unholy 197

Anti-Hero 193

Kill Bill 185

 

Everything will probably be higher than that, but it's really not a done deal.

I would maybe make Kill Bill the slight favorite. Streams wont be down as much as that, but we will see about the other 2. And also what they do on radio 

[Green]

Anti-hero will probably be #1 after Christmas because it's the song that will increase more on AC radio after they stop playing Christmas songs.

[Armani?]

Cuff It coming for #11

[slw84]

2 hours ago, dussymob said:

I just want Mariah to get 20 weeks at number one and then other songs can take over. 

same.

[Blade Runner]

17 hours ago, Young Volcanoes said:

aiwfc is gonna fall off in the next couple of years 

Yeah, Brenda keeps shrinking that difference more and more every year. It will happen. 

[Rocket]

9 minutes ago, Blade Runner said:

Yeah, Brenda keeps shrinking that difference more and more every year. It will happen. 

We’ve heard the Brenda “stans” say this for the last two years, and each year, she and her “stans” keep collecting Ls.

 

She can close the streaming gap but she can’t close the sales and radio gap.

[Pecinta Mariah]

11 hours ago, dussymob said:

I just want Mariah to get 20 weeks at number one and then other songs can take over. 

This, then BB can change their rules, whtvr

[brianc33710]

19 hours ago, Both Sides Now said:

I really don’t think so.
 

Christmas songs will have the 23rd, 24th and 25th on next week’s tracking week. Last year, AIWFCIY still went #1 with ~300 points with only the 24th and 25th of December. 

That + Carey had a Christmas special on CBS Christmas Eve. 

[suburbannature]

3 hours ago, Blade Runner said:

Yeah, Brenda keeps shrinking that difference more and more every year. It will happen. 

And yet the point differential remains the same or widened each week compared to last year, why? 

[Both Sides Now]

6 hours ago, Blade Runner said:

Yeah, Brenda keeps shrinking that difference more and more every year. It will happen. 

Yeah. This actually isn’t true. Take a look at the streams / radio / sales one week before Xmas. 

 

2022

AIWFCIY = 41.4M - 33.1 AI - 11k 

RATCT = 40.9M - 26.7 AI - 5k 

2021

AIWFCIY = 37.6M - 26 AI - 7.4k

RATCT = 35.8M - 20 AI - 5.9k 

 

What’s clear is RATCT is gaining on streaming but stalling on sales. The gap was actually likely wider this year than last as the sales and radio cover those streams. However, we can’t know for sure because we don’t know the free / premium sales difference. 
 

This is an aspect that chart predictors really struggle with (free vs premium streams for Xmas music). Premium streams are worth 3X more than free streams and Mariah stomps on the premium streaming side. RATCT only does better on Spotify, which has a free version. For example, right now Mariah is #1 on AM while Brenda is #6. Then on Amazon Music it seems Mariah is much stronger too. 
 

I don’t think the points are actually getting closer. If anything, we’ll continue to get shaky predictions because chart predictors seem to extrapolate numbers from Spotify but holiday music just doesn’t work that way. 
 

Maybe someday Brenda will claim the top spot. But we have no idea if she is actually making any ground beyond Spotify (which has a free version). 

[truthteller]

how many years until mariah can take back her record from old town road 

[suburbannature]

12 minutes ago, truthteller said:

how many years until mariah can take back her record from old town road 

If she keeps getting 3-4 weeks per year then just 3 years  

[besaid]

Brenda deserves. Super tired of the same old boring Christmas song going #1 every year. More competition is needed to make this interesting.

[Eternium]

On 12/25/2022 at 4:05 AM, stevyy said:

Why would you think that?

 

AIWFCIY :: USA :: Chartrun:

(2000): 83 - (2012): 29 - 25 - 21 - (2013): 26 - 27 - 26 - (2014): 50 - 40 - 35 - (2015): 26 - 22 - 18 - 11 - (2016): 23 - 17 - 20 - 16 - 35 - (2017): 21 - 11 - 9 - 9 - 13 - (2018): 29 - 14 - 7 - 6 - 7 - 3 - (2019): 39 - 31 - 18 - 3 - 1 - 1 - (2020): 1 - 29 - 14 - 2 - 1 - 2 - (2021): 1 - 9 - 36 - 12 - 3 - 2 - 1 - (2022): 1 - 1 - 25 - 5 - 2 -1 - 1 -

10 weeks #1

14 weeks top 2

17 weeks top 3

18 weeks top 5

24 weeks top 10

35 weeks top 20

54 weeks top 40

56 weeks charting total

 

She’ll be breaking some all-time records within the next 5 years  

[PoisonPill]

I have the feeling that AIWFCIY will begin to slowly decline over the next few seasons, and Brenda or even George might take over. Of course, it's a forever classic and will continue to be everywhere for years/decades.

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by PoisonPill

[suburbannature]

32 minutes ago, PoisonPill said:

I have the feeling that AIWFCIY will begin to slowly decline over the next few seasons, and Brenda or even George might take over. Of course, it's a forever classic and will continue to be everywhere for years/decades.

 

Y’all can keep saying this each year while it never happens 

[PoisonPill]

2 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

Y’all can keep saying this each year while it never happens 

Well, I've never said this before. It's clearly going to go #1 for several more years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see its points slowly decrease as the Brenda gains and the Christmas music market gets increasingly crowded.

[Hot Volcano]

10 hours ago, brianc33710 said:

That + Carey had a Christmas special on CBS Christmas Eve. 

Yup, promo is the only reason she'll remain at #1.

 

Rooting for Brenda to snatch her tho 

[suburbannature]

29 minutes ago, Hot Volcano said:

Yup, promo is the only reason she'll remain at #1.

  Yeah, the US really needed an Xmas concert to remember to stream AIWFCIY

[Hot Volcano]

16 minutes ago, suburbannature said:

  Yeah, the US really needed an Xmas concert to remember to stream AIWFCIY

TV promo mostly results into sales boost. Older generation is mostly watching these specials and buying the songs. So yes, a few thousands copies might have made that difference for #1

[pride4jc1222]

Other predictions: 

 

 

[brianc33710]

Well Brenda Lee is about to set the record for the oldest song to spend 1 year on the Hot 100. Only 1 other pre SoundScan song did it, the Four Seasons "December 1963, OH What A Night." It spent 27 weeks 1975-6 & 27 more 1994 (in ScoundScan era, remix) for 54 weeks total. So next Christmas Lee will set the record for oldest pre soundscan song overall, as shell finish this season with 53 wks. 

[Blade Runner]

18 hours ago, Both Sides Now said:

Yeah. This actually isn’t true. Take a look at the streams / radio / sales one week before Xmas. 

 

2022

AIWFCIY = 41.4M - 33.1 AI - 11k 

RATCT = 40.9M - 26.7 AI - 5k 

2021

AIWFCIY = 37.6M - 26 AI - 7.4k

RATCT = 35.8M - 20 AI - 5.9k 

 

What’s clear is RATCT is gaining on streaming but stalling on sales. The gap was actually likely wider this year than last as the sales and radio cover those streams. However, we can’t know for sure because we don’t know the free / premium sales difference. 
 

This is an aspect that chart predictors really struggle with (free vs premium streams for Xmas music). Premium streams are worth 3X more than free streams and Mariah stomps on the premium streaming side. RATCT only does better on Spotify, which has a free version. For example, right now Mariah is #1 on AM while Brenda is #6. Then on Amazon Music it seems Mariah is much stronger too. 
 

I don’t think the points are actually getting closer. If anything, we’ll continue to get shaky predictions because chart predictors seem to extrapolate numbers from Spotify but holiday music just doesn’t work that way. 
 

Maybe someday Brenda will claim the top spot. But we have no idea if she is actually making any ground beyond Spotify (which has a free version). 

Brenda already won the US Sporify battle. She's slowly coming and it will happen eventually. In like 3 or 4 years. 

[brianc33710]

49 minutes ago, Blade Runner said:

Brenda already won the US Sporify battle. She's slowly coming and it will happen eventually. In like 3 or 4 years. 

She would need to perform RATCT. I found her singing it at an April 2017 concert on YouTube but see nothing since then. The other clip shown on the chart predictions is from 1984. She's 78 though which means she's probably slowed down on her touring. 

 

EDIT: I'm incorrect. She performed RATCT with a group of Country all stars at a Ray Steven's concert on 04 Dec 22 which was posted on YT 11 Dec 22.

[OnlyManInTheWorld]

Kelly Clarkson