charts discussion Early Hot 100 predictions (Winston): Bad Habit #1, Unholy #2, As It Was #3

[Arcadius]

Capitol should've used some coins to have gotten Unholy a radio deal upon release. I'm guessing they didn't expect the song to smash like this. 

[Ger]

2 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

How many more weeks will the Early Predictions thread be derailed due to the discussion of Break My Soul’s charting run?

Until it stops charting.

[ClashAndBurn]

7 hours ago, Great808 said:

BMS really is the most frontloaded #1 in a looooong time  it’s not even giving smash hit let alone hit lmaooooooo. All that payola for this ******* mess fgdfhhggddd

The nerve to call Break My Soul "the most front loaded #1" when My Universe wasn't even a year ago, Jimmy Cooks spent less than half the amount of time in the top ten overall, and We Don't Talk About Bruno had a similar, yet worse trajectory.  

 

I'm not even a Beyonce stan at all, but Break My Soul has done better than every other single released by most every other pop girl this decade. The ONLY exceptions being Olivia Rodrigo (in her debut era) and Ariana Grande.

[pride4jc1222]

The funny thing is, BMS isn’t even the most frontloaded multi-week #1. Just look at some of the #1 hits we had in 2018.

 

This Is America spent its first two weeks at #1, and finished with like 15 weeks on the charts. 10-week #1 In My Feelings spent only 22 weeks on the charts, then faded to oblivion.

[ddddynamite]

Bad Habit

[Great808]

3 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said:

The nerve to call Break My Soul "the most front loaded #1" when My Universe wasn't even a year ago, Jimmy Cooks spent less than half the amount of time in the top ten overall, and We Don't Talk About Bruno had a similar, yet worse trajectory.  

 

I'm not even a Beyonce stan at all, but Break My Soul has done better than every other single released by most every other pop girl this decade. The ONLY exceptions being Olivia Rodrigo (in her debut era) and Ariana Grande.

And look how many streams they ended up with, completely tower and shadow bey, by a humongous margin. People actually liked those songs where as they don’t BMS. 

 

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

The funny thing is, BMS isn’t even the most frontloaded multi-week #1. Just look at some of the #1 hits we had in 2018.

 

This Is America spent its first two weeks at #1, and finished with like 15 weeks on the charts. 10-week #1 In My Feelings spent only 22 weeks on the charts, then faded to oblivion.

And look how big those ended up being in the long run, billions of streams. Not to mention the amount of radio play BMS had and not to mention it was spammed on EVERY radio format. They played those songs here and there briefly and that was it. There is almost no way you can spin this to make bey’s situation look like it isn’t a complete **** show. 

[ClashAndBurn]

2 minutes ago, Great808 said:

And look how many streams they ended up with, completely tower and shadow bey, by a humongous margin. People actually liked those songs where as they don’t BMS. 

 

And look how big those ended up being in the long run, billions of streams. Not to mention the amount of radio play BMS had and not to mention it was spammed on EVERY radio format. They played those songs here and there briefly and that was it. There is almost no way you can spin this to make bey’s situation look like it isn’t a complete **** show. 

You really are just trolling at this point.  

[Great808]

3 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

You really are just trolling at this point.  

Providing credible facts is reality not trolling. The only person trolling anyone was bey to the gp. 

[ClashAndBurn]

15 minutes ago, Great808 said:

Providing credible facts is reality not trolling. The only person trolling anyone was bey to the gp. 

You clinging to the idea that a 14-week top ten song isn't a hit can only be explained by being pure delusion or trolling. There's NO WORLD in which a 14-week top ten is a flop. And for a singer who is in their 40s who refuses to even promote their music with even a single music video to maintain public interest in the song at all is nothing short of impressive.

 

Downplaying the success of a clearly successful solo hit song (something that Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Christina Aguilera, Kelly Clarkson, P!nk, Avril Lavigne, and Britney Spears have each all not seen in almost a decade) just makes you look extremely pressed and spiteful. In other words, an obsessed hater.

[omrimayo]

"Unholy" instrumental and Live are out since like 3 hours ago... Wonder if those will give Sam his 5 more points? Also the song is discounted on iTunes since yesterday and not included in those predictions, so I wonder...

[Gossip_Boy]

Ugh who tf do I need to sacrifice for my boy Steve to finally get his deserved #1? I hope this is the week.

But regardless of the result it’s kind of great how we’re going to have an all queer top 2.

[M.R.]

Manifesting that this the week when BH goes number 1.

[1989]

Bad Habit deserves the top spot 

[tiagol88]

Streaming era is so damn interesting because songs are either stuck on top for months or you get these surprises out of nowhere like Unholy 

[Kiss It Better]

Steve Lacy just dropped the sped up version  finally something

 

[QueenofCopyPaste]

It's a battle of queers yes!

[Lovett]

[enchanted0]

10 hours ago, omrimayo said:

"Unholy" instrumental and Live are out since like 3 hours ago... Wonder if those will give Sam his 5 more points? Also the song is discounted on iTunes since yesterday and not included in those predictions, so I wonder...

 

4 hours ago, Kiss It Better said:

Steve Lacy just dropped the sped up version  finally something

 

 

[pride4jc1222]

 

[slw84]

On 9/28/2022 at 4:28 PM, ClashAndBurn said:

You clinging to the idea that a 14-week top ten song isn't a hit can only be explained by being pure delusion or trolling. There's NO WORLD in which a 14-week top ten is a flop. And for a singer who is in their 40s who refuses to even promote their music with even a single music video to maintain public interest in the song at all is nothing short of impressive.

 

Downplaying the success of a clearly successful solo hit song (something that Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Christina Aguilera, Kelly Clarkson, P!nk, Avril Lavigne, and Britney Spears have each all not seen in almost a decade) just makes you look extremely pressed and spiteful. In other words, an obsessed hater.

It doesn't make sense to pretend that BMS's trajectory now is because radio payola is done and it has been done ever since the album was released.

Coincidentally, it peaked during the album release week when it had only been out 6 weeks. What song peaks 6 weeks out on radio and is a big hit? So the goal was to get the song up in audience so that when the album was released the stans would mass stream (went from 30s on spotify to top 5) and buy which they did and it hit #1 once radio dropped it it started to tumble.

 

Now I don't think it's the most frontloaded but it was clearly radio driven and is falling hard now that the time elapsed to raise the audience impressions for album release week.

 

That said, I hope Bad habit snags that #1

 

Harry is good with a 15 week #1

 

[Soda Pop Queen]

The amount of history being made this year on the H100 is bananas. I haven't been this interested in charts in like...15 years lol. 

[Holiest Dreams]

Any predictions for Cuff It this week?

[kandicha]

3 minutes ago, Holiest Dreams said:

Any predictions for Cuff It this week?

This one has it at 55 

 

 

 

This one has it at 51

 

 

 

It looks like airplay is almost non-existent right now so the chart position should improve once it impacts radio

[Holiest Dreams]

8 hours ago, kandicha said:

This one has it at 55 

 

 

 

This one has it at 51

 

 

 

It looks like airplay is almost non-existent right now so the chart position should improve once it impacts radio

Radio is probably gonna eat it up. It’ll be fun to watch it climb, reminds me of eras from before the streaming era where the singles properly came and went even post-album release 

[montacelo]

Happy for Steve Lacy!!!

This song deserves it also though