charts discussion 2022 Billboard Year-End Hot 100 Predictions: HW #1 AIW #2 STAY #3 EOM #4 CH #10

[pride4jc1222]

Updated predictions (44/52 weeks, 85% of the year completed): 

 

 

 

9 out of the Top 10 is locked, as First Class should pass Cold Heart soon. The last spot is between Cold Heart, About Damn Time, and Wait For U. I think Cold Heart either finishes 10th (holding off both songs) or 12th (both songs pass it).

[Ger]

34 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Updated predictions (44/52 weeks, 85% of the year completed): 

 

 

 

9 out of the Top 10 is locked, as First Class should pass Cold Heart soon. The last spot is between Cold Heart, About Damn Time, and Wait For U. I think Cold Heart either finishes 10th (holding off both songs) or 12th (both songs pass it).

Thank you, I hadn't noticed that Cedric hadn't updated since then, but I add this info on the OP. 

 

It's going to be an interesting fight between CH and ADT for the #10 spot imo. WFU's longevity is beyond remarkable tho.

[superben]

On 9/7/2022 at 10:22 AM, Genie in a Bottle said:

Wow. I had no idea how slow the charts moved these days. Haven’t paid much attention to them in years. So many of these songs are well over a year old….

This. Both the current top 2 are big hits from last year.

 

I guess with streaming & tiktok, people listen to a much wider range of music and focus less on a selected number of current hits.

[glamrock<3]

On 9/7/2022 at 4:09 AM, Insanity said:

How tho?  Radio played all these too death which plays a major role in points

Basically, although (to me) Big Energy doesn't feel like an top five year end hit.. First Class surely does, pop and rhythmic still plays it like it's Jack Harlow's farewell song 

[glamrock<3]

So far, most of the top twenty feels like an recession  I will definitely struggle to do my Billboard Year-End favorite top ten singles list.. 

[pride4jc1222]

Week 45 complete: 

 

 

Year End prediction (assuming 52-week year): 

 

 

Cold Heart has a chance of sneaking out a Top 10 spot if this is a 52-week year. (A 53-week year, and most likely ADT and WFU pass Cold Heart.)

[dabunique]

Doja coming to have her seventh entry in the top 100 for the year 

[Ger]

Update, 45 out of 52 weeks counted.

 

 

Can't believe "Big Energy" could end up in the Top 5.  

 

RUTH coming for Top 20  

[Ger]

Following the exact same trend as this last week, the final projections look like:

 

1. Heat Waves 9411

2. As It Was 8370

3. STAY 8328 ** 

4. Easy on Me 8153

5. First Class 6310

6. Big Energy 6062

7. Shivers 6048

8. Ghost 5815

9. Super Gremlin 5582

10. About Damn Time 5576

 

11. Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 5474

12. WAIT FOR U 5472

13. Bad Habits 5189

14. THATS WHAT I WANT 4491

15. Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) 4223

16. Enemy 4155

17. Me Porto Bonito 4125

18. INDUSTRY BABY  4117

19. abcedefu 4069

20. Need to Know 3989

 

21. Wasted on You 3975

22. Woman 3826

23. Tití Me Preguntó 3773

24. Late Night Talking 3713

25. We Don't Talk About Bruno 3515

26. I Like You (A Happier Song) 3491

 

** Assuming 3 weeks left charting (depends on when it goes recurrent).

[slw84]

Happy Latto will take biggest song for a female rapper.

Happy Lizzo will get in the top 10 as well.

 

 

[LastGreatBloodline]

Shivers, Ghost and Super Gremlin on the top 10 

[pride4jc1222]

If 2022 is a 52-week year, then the Top 3 will be Heat Waves #1, Stay #2, and As It Was #3. (AIW would need to maintain absolutely stable the last 6 weeks of the charting year to catch Stay, and that's pretty much impossible with the holiday season coming.) There is a chance that Cold Heart holds off ADT and WFU for the #10 spot.

 

If 2022 is a 53-week year, then if Stay falls off on 10/8, that will open the door for AIW to pass Stay for #2 on the 11/19 charting week. Also, it will be a 2-way battle for #10, as the 11/19 chart would put ADT and WFU comfortably ahead of Cold Heart.

[UnusualBoy]

EOM will end in the top 5  

[Katy V.!]

I don't think Bieber gets the credit that he deserves.

 

Ghost holding that Top10 is massive, Justice getting 6(!!) songs over 500m on Spotify while Stay shatters records

 

 

[Queen.]

22 hours ago, Ger-55 said:

Following the exact same trend as this last week, the final projections look like:

 

1. Heat Waves 9411

2. As It Was 8370

3. STAY 8328 ** 

4. Easy on Me 8153

5. First Class 6310

6. Big Energy 6062

7. Shivers 6048

8. Ghost 5815

9. Super Gremlin 5582

10. About Damn Time 5576

 

11. Cold Heart (PNAU Remix) 5474

12. WAIT FOR U 5472

13. Bad Habits 5189

14. THATS WHAT I WANT 4491

15. Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God) 4223

16. Enemy 4155

17. Me Porto Bonito 4125

18. INDUSTRY BABY  4117

19. abcedefu 4069

20. Need to Know 3989

 

21. Wasted on You 3975

22. Woman 3826

23. Tití Me Preguntó 3773

24. Late Night Talking 3713

25. We Don't Talk About Bruno 3515

26. I Like You (A Happier Song) 3491

 

** Assuming 3 weeks left charting (depends on when it goes recurrent).

What about SFG? It have not left the top 10 on H100

[pride4jc1222]

24 minutes ago, Queen. said:

What about SFG? It have not left the top 10 on H100

SFG started too late. It didn't chart until late August, and Billboard's tracking year is scheduled to end with the 11/12 chart (assuming a 52-week year). That is why SFG is predicted to finish around #53-55 on the Year End chart. There is a chance that 2022 could be a 53-week year, and the additional week (the 11/19 chart) could put SFG in the Top 50 of the Year End chart.

[GreatestLoveofAll]

BE can go so Adele can stay top five pls 

[naval23]

I would love it if "Cold Heart" makes top 10 year end - amazing for a #7 peaking single

[naval23]

Happier Than Ever had the worst luck getting cut off between years 

 

Sk8er Boi teas 

[305]

How tf is Big Energy so big on the chart? Only 167 mil on Spotify? That's hardly a hit

[pride4jc1222]

Week 46 complete: 

 

 

Year End prediction: 

 

 

Two interesting developments:

 

1. Stay is predicted to go recurrent on the 10/8 chart, allowing As It Was to pass Stay for #2. Personally, I do not believe that AIW will maintain a 200-point average the rest of the year, and I think Stay will finish ahead (unless there is a 53-week year).

 

2. Wait For U is now predicted to finish ahead of About Damn Time. I think Cold Heart appears more of a lock for the #10 spot if this is a 52-week year, but if it is a 53-week year, I think WFU now has the advantage over ADT for #10 (both should pass Cold Heart on the 53rd week).

[pride4jc1222]

Week 47 complete: 

 

 

Updated Year End prediction: 

 

 

About Damn Time moves back ahead of Wait For U. However, both songs will need 2022 to be a 53-week year to catch Cold Heart and have a chance at the YE Top 10.

[Ger]

49 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

About Damn Time moves back ahead of Wait For U. However, both songs will need 2022 to be a 53-week year to catch Cold Heart and have a chance at the YE Top 10.

We hate to see, especially WFU feels definetely deserving for that Top 10 placement.

[Ger]

Only 5 weeks left, OP updated.

 

 

[naval23]

I wish Cold Heart would make top 10 but top 15 will be cute too - esp considering it peaked at #7