charts discussion Hot 100 early predictions (Winston): AIW 12x #1, Bad Habit #2, Hold Me Closer #12

[TrieLz]

1 hour ago, nathanspears said:

He's estimating 19.2m airplay by Thursday? I think it's going to be more than that

Because Billboard use Nielsen Numbers, not Mediabase,

usually Nielsen numbers are lower than Mediabase.

 

but I hope HMC have the same AI in both Nielsen & Mediabase

 

 

[nathanspears]

2 minutes ago, TrieLz said:

Because Billboard use Nielsen Numbers, not Mediabase,

usually Nielsen numbers are lower than Mediabase.

 

but I hope HMC have the same AI in both Nielsen & Mediabase

 

 

Ahhh okay, charts are so confusing 

[TrieLz]

2 minutes ago, nathanspears said:

Ahhh okay, charts are so confusing 

Yes, for example:

“As It was” have 79M AI from mediabase

but Billboard only count 71,3M AI from Nielsen.

 

so, if HMC have 25M AI from mediabase,

It might be around 20M AI in Nielsen numbers.

[nathanspears]

What do "adds" mean? Does that mean the song was added to a station's song rotation?

 

And what does it mean when it "impacts" radio?

Edited August 31, 2022 by nathanspears

[slw84]

9 hours ago, GhostBox said:

She has many more chances lol 

They always throw shade for no reason.

Top 15 is good. 
I think it will repeak in the long run either way.

Elton is going to wait until it needs a boost to do more.

9 hours ago, nick4bty said:

Would rather see Britney go harder with a better song tbh. Nice to see her label investing in her with radio payola and playlisting, but this song sucks. Hope they do the same for her next lead single, if there ever is one

Just wrong all over the place. It's Elton's label if you are going to shade then at least get the details correct.

 

[Eternium]

 

1 hour ago, TrieLz said:

Yes, I can’t find official source from billboard too,

 

but because of that news from Single Music BTS Armys never mass buying their song again this year.

they always use 1 email/account to purchase 1 digital copies.

 

idk in Nicki’s case why SFG have 89k sales last week but only 15k sales this week

 

but I’m happy if these rules are wrong, so we can buy up to 4 set copies song from Elton’s store.

Honestly, I wish Billboard would just clarify. I know they don’t because they don’t want people manipulating their charts, but somehow Britney always gets the shaft. So many artists took advantage of bundles, 4 digital copies; etc. and Britney never got to  

1 hour ago, nathanspears said:

What do "adds" mean? Does that mean the song was added to a station's song rotation?

 

And what does it mean when it "impacts" radio?

When a song goes for adds, that means the label is paying to promote it to radio. This is the same thing as “impacting.”

 

When a song is added or has received adds, that means a song is added to what looks like a formulary for a radio station. It doesn’t guarantee any form of rotation, but it does reflect when requesting songs on radio! For example, if “Hold Me Closer” is added by Z100, the DJ will see it on a list of current music. Likewise, anyone requesting the song will see it as an option to choose for your request. If a song has not been added, you have to type it in “Other.”

[UnusualBoy]

I was expecting a top 30 debut not so close to top 10, go Elton and Brit

[Frogger17]

8 hours ago, ToMmY said:

You're the one coming here saying TMZ lied to you, lmao.

I'm talking about Harvey Levin on TMZ Live tv show saying this song was definitely going #1 when it's released. Clearly it won't be #1 on the Hot 100. Like I said, willfully obtuse. Especially if ya'll thought I was talking about iTunes and Spotify charts. 

[SinnerCity]

A top 12 debut is absolutely amazing!!! Considering Britney's last lead single Make Me debuted at No. 17!

 

Congrats to these legends 

[Pheromosa]

#12 seems really high for something like this 

she won I guess 

[GreatestLoveofAll]

for all the talk that Nicki is a flop, here she genuinely has a stable, well-received hit which still has decent sales and is the third biggest streamed song of the week and she cant even rank top five. A shame.

[Moonlight Nation]

Thinking about how with the exception of "I'm A Slave 4 U", "Me Against The Music" and "My Prerogative" (the former two only struggling due to the Clear Channel ban at the time), all her comeback singles have peaked in the top 20 on Billboard, and "Hold Me Closer" is set to keep up the tradition. We love to see it! 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Moonlight Nation

[JoeAg]

where is 29 predicted to reach?

[pride4jc1222]

 

Yep, I was pretty much right all along. HMC is going to debut in the Top 10, with ~40k sales.

[PrudenceHCharmed]

Amazing for Britney  Hopefully Beyoncé could spent another one or two weeks inside the top 10.

[pride4jc1222]

Hold Me Closer is challenging for a Top 5 debut

 

 

[Planet Mars]

36 minutes ago, pride4jc1222 said:

Hold Me Closer is challenging for a Top 5 debut

 

 

If she and Beyoncé are Top 10 the same week

[slw84]

8 minutes ago, Planet Mars said:

If she and Beyoncé are Top 10 the same week

Is that a bad thing?

two legendary queen B’s

 

but it seems like hold me closer could range from 6-23 based on various predictors.

 

so maybe the more reliable predictors will layout their estimates this weekend.

 

oh and we”ll have to wait until Tuesday thanks to the holiday.

[slw84]

14 hours ago, PrudenceHCharmed said:

Amazing for Britney  Hopefully Beyoncé could spent another one or two weeks inside the top 10.

Yes the others could sit one out if it means three artists with solo careers ranging from 20-50 years get top 10 placements simultaneously.

 

 

[Planet Mars]

8 minutes ago, slw84 said:

Is that a bad thing?

two legendary queen B’s

 

but it seems like hold me closer could range from 6-23 based on various predictors.

 

so maybe the more reliable predictors will layout their estimates this weekend.

 

oh and we”ll have to wait until Tuesday thanks to the holiday.

No, I'd be here for it. Imagine the double slayage

[Rotunda]

20 minutes ago, Planet Mars said:

If she and Beyoncé are Top 10 the same week

When would the last time have been?

[Planet Mars]

4 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

When would the last time have been?

Idk, but they've consistently dropped consecutively for ages. Since like 1999, seriously

[pride4jc1222]

6 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

When would the last time have been?

11/21/2009

 

3 (Britney Spears) - #8

Sweet Dreams (Beyonce) - #10

[ttsmu]

This is a bad week for @D.M.F

[Toxic.Latin]

3 hours ago, pride4jc1222 said:

11/21/2009

 

3 (Britney Spears) - #8

Sweet Dreams (Beyonce) - #10

wasn't "3" number one ??