charts discussion HDD: Beyoncé to debut with 500K-600K on Billboard 200

[Mr. Blue_Shirt]

Yeah they're setting her up with this like if current popular artists can't even do more than 500K+ first week, i don't think Beyoncé would do it either

 

I can see her doing 450K+ at best if her team would do a great job with shipping the physical CDs and vinyl on the first week

[Kool_Aid_King]

8 hours ago, enchanted0 said:

Her vinyls still hasn't sell out with 30k supply so   

TBH, I'm a die hard fan and I didn't even know about the vinyl until a few days after because it was just softly posted on her website, with no announcement on any of her socials. She hasn't even announced the alternative cover art that's gonna be attached to it. She hasn't announced a standard vinyl either (with the original cover art). 

 

Are you certain it's 30K supply? I haven't heard of that. 

[nick4bty]

300k max

[More Than A Melody]

12 hours ago, Ash12345 said:

A few years ago, it used to be that older fanbases (Gen-X/Millenials) were more likely to be buying pure albums than Gen-Z, but I think at this point those older fans all have streaming accounts, so it's mostly about who has the most young passionate fans buying vinyls as collectibles (ie. Billie, Harry, BTS, Taylor, Olivia). I'm not sure if HDD is properly accounting for shift, so maybe that's why they underestimated Harry.

 

Obviously you can't really say for sure until the album comes out and you see how it gets received. But I think Kendrick, Taylor and Adele are good comparisons. Especially Adele and Kendrick. They're not the cool new thing anymore, but still came into their new albums as highly respected albums who released very popular albums several years ago and followed that by a long break. Taylor and her fanbase are probably a bit younger and she didn't take a break but she still doesn't have the same first week sales power as in 2010-2017.

 

Based off that, a more realistic prediction for Beyonce for a well received album would be around 300k SPS.

That's true, also Kendrick didn't have physicals which would've boosted his sales a bit (he didn't pull the numbers he used to with physicals, as you pointed out).

 

I have no clue how many albums Bey will sell. I can't really put my finger on a prediction since she's been absent for so long.

[PopFan1996]

11 hours ago, PrudenceHCharmed said:

Among the MPG, she's probably the only one aside the titans that slay AM.

Not really the only one. 30 did perform crazily well on AM in the first months

Edited July 12, 2022 by PopFan1996

[PopFan1996]

1 hour ago, Mr. Blue_Shirt said:

I can see her doing 450K+ at best if her team would do a great job with shipping the physical CDs and vinyl on the first week

It's Columbia, and they absolutely will maximize the pure sales for the first week.

We've seen it with Adele, Harry and now Bey.
 

 

[QueenBLadyG]

Would the only preorder info why could have be from her website? It's available everywhere now, perhaps they're weighing in those as well? 

[Star dance]

1 hour ago, QueenBLadyG said:

Would the only preorder info why could have be from her website? It's available everywhere now, perhaps they're weighing in those as well? 

but it is not enough, she will have to sell sotmthing like 350k pure to stand a chance and even that probably won't be enough. her new song won't add up that much to cover that gap. lemonde did 485,000 but that was more than 6 years ago and wihout streaming bar tidal. but that was not a full week though....

i see her doing a great 300-350 k, i think it really unlikely for her to do lemonade numbers

[Arrows]

I’m predicting 250k

 

Part of the reason why her previous releases did so well in pure sales was because it wasn’t available on streaming and everyone wanted to check for the drama.

 

This time, everyone’s gonna stream it instead. Besides, Renaissance doesn’t seem like the personal or peaceful kind of album that you’d really want to “own” on vinyl and listen to in your living room, but we’ll see.

 

[Aethereal]

That is too high even for WW let alone US. LOL

[Gui Blackout]

Wow those are huge numbers

 

Hopefully she can deliver them!

[Power love]

I'm predicting 145 if you look at the clues it makes sense. This era is making no noise & that’s a massive set up. 

[Gerardo]

Only 4 female albums have done over 200k units from SEA+TEA units and those were TUN, Folklore, SOUR, and Red TV, I doubt Bey achieves this, but with 16 tracks and BMS doing good I see her doing over 150k, to that add pure sales I think she could push up to 200k, so that would give a total of 350k units, which would be amazing in this sales climate

[Chris]

The way the Swifties literally RAN in here.

 

You would think there is a shoe sale in here.

[Bears01]

2 hours ago, Gui Blackout said:

Wow those are huge numbers

 

Hopefully she can deliver them!

Almost none of her fans are anticipating these kind of numbers on her debut

 

But in the off chance it were to happen, we know damn well you’d be in the thread screaming “Tidal FRAUD! Fraud numbers, get the FBI involved NOW!!”, so don’t even play… 

[CakeLikeLG]

 she is coming 

[Brikenbur]

It's going to exceed 1m total activity first week, bookmark this 

[Broken]

17 hours ago, enchanted0 said:

Her vinyls still hasn't sell out with 30k supply so   

 

OT: Good luck 

[Triton]

What are the top 5 highest first week numbers this year? 

[Janelle]

The fact they predicted 500-600 instead of 300-400 makes me wonder if they know something 

[Saint luv]

[fauxtography]

Despite occasionally trolling her on this forum, I do actually hope there is some validity to this claim. Even though Hive will use it for 10 more years to drag other artists, her actually selling this amount this far into her career and at her age - would actually be inspiring and would be a positive for pop music. In a world full of tiktok hits and faceless stars, it would be refreshing to see a juggernaut who isn't taylor pull huge numbers.

 

That said, yes, seems some Hive are purposefully lowballing her so they can be like "no one was expecting more than 5 copies" or whatever.

 

 

 

 

[SweetTalker]

On 7/11/2022 at 3:59 PM, Kool_Aid_King said:

They're setting up the Queen. 

 

She's probably realistically doing 300-400K. Do I think that number is doable? Sure. But she's not putting in any of the effort and probably won't. They've been incredibly wrong and overestimate the last few times so IDK why they're still at it.

 

Kendrick:

Estimate -> 350-400K

Actual -> 295K (55K less)

 

Harry:

Estimate -> 400-450K
Actual -> 521K (71K More)

 

Jack:

Estimate -> 160-180K
Actual -> 113K (47K Less)

 

Post:

Estimate -> 250-275K

Actual -> 121K (129K Less)

 

Bad Bunny:

Estimate -> 125-150K

Actual -> 274K (124K More)

 

Luke Combs:

Estimate -> 150-175K

Actual -> 74K (76K Less)

 

Adele:

Estimate -> 1.3-1.5M

Actual -> 839K (461K Less)

 

 

I feel like predicions are becoming more unreliable thx to streaming idk 

[bowdown]

The set up

 

Queen will do 250-300K 

[zzmyth]

Anything around 300K is a triumph for her I'd say.

 

If she does that... then it's a huge success.

 

600K... that seems VERY unlikely.

 

It's not like BMS is slaying left and right and doing 3M daily in the US and 10M WW