Misguided Ghost Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 They're a mess for this. Of course she'll do big numbers, but don't set her up like that
Lovett Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Blade Runner said: Her own fans are literally here in this thread saying she can do it. This entire thread is filled with Hive saying that she will not hit these numbers. Do you think you're the only one who can read these posts or something?
Not Like The Movies Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 9 hours ago, R.E.M. said: They're trying to set my sister up I'm predicting 200-250K.
1989 Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 I don’t think so, seems a bit unrealistic. Plus, they’ve been pretty off lately. I think she’ll do 250k, which is obviously great.
Otter Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 Not hive members lowballing at 145k just to avoid lashings She's not doing less than 300k unless there's a big leak. Her recent projects tell us nothing because they've all been side projects with no physical, no pre-orders and no hype. ATRL was crashing for a whole week when Renaissance was announced, its simply not comparable to EIL/The Gift.
Dreajae Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 That's a large assumption considering she did 653k in 2016. It's safe to at least cut that in half. We have no idea what type of power Bey brings on the pure sales or streaming side in this climate. She's moderate in streams based on the BMS performance currently. But she hasn't really pushed it.
enchanted0 Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 Her vinyls still hasn't sell out with 30k supply so
Damien M Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 Do black women (her CORE fan base) like Break My Soul? If they do, she’ll do 300k+. If not, around 175-200k. I saw a TON of gays on my socials post it on release week but I haven’t heard much about it since. Can a Beyhive educate me?
Donquizote Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 2 hours ago, enchanted0 said: Her vinyls still hasn't sell out with 30k supply so --- I'll be shocked if she couldnt get at least 500K first week. Her stans said she is on the same level with Adele and Taylor, and her release always makes the world stop
benyonce Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Donquizote said: --- I'll be shocked if she couldnt get at least 500K first week. Her stans said she is on the same level with Adele and Taylor, and her release always makes the world stop Don't you get tired of spinning the same nonsense? You can be fake shocked all you like while the hive on here remains realistic with their expectations and enjoys the quality Bey consistently delivers.
JawBreaker Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 7 hours ago, Ash12345 said: I don't see her doing more SEAs than Kendrick or Taylor (Red TV) which did 260k and 236k respectively. I'd expect 130k-180k SEAs. Taylor's pure declined around 70% from 1989/Reputation to Red TV, and Adele's pure decline was around 80%. If Beyonce's pure sales decline 60-80% from Lemonade to Renaissance, that would mean around 100k-200k pure. So total of 230k-380k SPS assuming the album is well received and promoted like Lemonade was. I think most people would agree this is realistic. 500k-600k just ain't happening. Yeah this is a good assessment
ObsessedwithBey Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 They’re trying to set my good sis up. I’m predicting 200-220k
frenchyisback Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 7 hours ago, Ash12345 said: A few years ago, it used to be that older fanbases (Gen-X/Millenials) were more likely to be buying pure albums than Gen-Z, but I think at this point those older fans all have streaming accounts, so it's mostly about who has the most young passionate fans buying vinyls as collectibles (ie. Billie, Harry, BTS, Taylor, Olivia). I'm not sure if HDD is properly accounting for shift, so maybe that's why they underestimated Harry. Obviously you can't really say for sure until the album comes out and you see how it gets received. But I think Kendrick, Taylor and Adele are good comparisons. Especially Adele and Kendrick. They're not the cool new thing anymore, but still came into their new albums as highly respected albums who released very popular albums several years ago and followed that by a long break. Taylor and her fanbase are probably a bit younger and she didn't take a break but she still doesn't have the same first week sales power as in 2010-2017. Based off that, a more realistic prediction for Beyonce for a well received album would be around 300k SPS. Sounds like you should replace the HDD guys cause you re doing a better job at understanding the markets. im one of those millennials who bought every pure album until Anti and who has moved exclusively to streaming platforms since then.
Comedor Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 Do they know something we don’t? Seems unrealistic.
Bang Up Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 They're basing it on her name and the expectation of her fans coming out to buy the album, but if her fans wouldn't do it for the single then they aren't going to do it for the album. There's no current indication of this album doing these numbers, but I can still see an impressive debut by today's standards.
storminthedark Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 This is unlikely and idk what HDD base their predictions this far out of album drop on anymore Harry had 160k pure 2 weeks before the album release and then made up the rest in the album release week. Bey would have to have really strong holds for her pure copies and incredibly high stream track average for her to hit 600k. It's just not realistic and HDD are messy for trying to set her up like that. If Harry with AIW and his massive pure numbers wasn't able to crack 600k then B won't either. 300-350k would be fantastic for her.
Lovett Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, Bang Up said: They're basing it on her name and the expectation of her fans coming out to buy the album, but if her fans wouldn't do it for the single then they aren't going to do it for the album. There's no current indication of this album doing these numbers, but I can still see an impressive debut by today's standards. They're basing it on numbers provided by the label, and isn't "Break My Soul" a multi-week solo top 10? That sounds like the fans are coming out to buy it. Some popgirls haven't had that since 2013. I think HDD are over-predicting, but let's wait and see!
Bill_NewRomantiks Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 with Break My Soul's streams Beyonce is doing 170k-200k size SEA I think, with the limited edition and physical sales all prepared, the 350k or more is seeing, but if she wants more she can def add more onto the current promo and hype
badgirlriri Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 7 hours ago, Otter said: Not hive members lowballing at 145k just to avoid lashings She's not doing less than 300k unless there's a big leak. Her recent projects tell us nothing because they've all been side projects with no physical, no pre-orders and no hype. ATRL was crashing for a whole week when Renaissance was announced, its simply not comparable to EIL/The Gift. Only one person said that, Hive are expecting 250-350k
Cloröx Posted July 12, 2022 Posted July 12, 2022 I'm predicting 350k-400k which is very conservative and realistic but bare in mind we don't know how Tidal will inflate the streams
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