charts discussion HDD: Beyoncé to debut with 500K-600K on Billboard 200

[Bears01]

1 minute ago, Blade Runner said:

Her own fans are literally here on this thread saying she can do it. 

Literally the majority of her fans are in this thread saying she more than likely won’t  

[Njshawty]

4 hours ago, Body Talk said:

I don't see her doing more than Harry. I'd be shocked if so.

Why not there’s nothing special about him…her last 2 albums did bigger numbers….

[Bears01]

1 minute ago, Njshawty said:

Why not there’s nothing special about him…her last 2 albums did bigger numbers….

You are setting her up so bad, please stop  This sales climate is completely different, and Harry is the biggest artist on the planet right now with a 9 week #1 hit. Please, for our sake, shhhhh. 

[MusicBiz234]

Queen is doing 300k which is excellent 

[Njshawty]

1 minute ago, Bears01 said:

You are setting her up so bad, please stop  This sales climate is completely different, and Harry is the biggest artist on the planet right now with a 9 week #1 hit. Please, for our sake, shhhhh. 

Beyoncé will eat him up alive…9 week #1 that’s cute for him but beyonces been there done that 21 years ago….Beyonces done his numbers without number ones 

[Njshawty]

2 minutes ago, MusicBiz234 said:

Queen is doing 300k which is excellent 

She is. She did 310k with 4 and it leaked weeks before that’s the lowest she’s debuted with, with all of her studio albums 

[Bears01]

1 minute ago, Njshawty said:

Beyoncé will eat him up alive…9 week #1 that’s cute for him but beyonces been there done that 21 years ago….Beyonces done his numbers without number ones 

Please, for our sake, stop. I speak for most of her fans on here: stop. 

[umich]

Even if she debuted with 4 numbers in this climate (300k), that would be great. Maybe this is based off of preorders and such… but considering Lemonade did these numbers 6+ years ago, I am not sure she will be able to replicate that.

 

But I would love to be proven wrong

[MusicBiz234]

4 minutes ago, Njshawty said:

She is. She did 310k with 4 and it leaked weeks before that’s the lowest she’s debuted with, with all of her studio albums 

Reasonable expectation. I'm just excited for new music regardless

[Jynx]

Whatever the number anything over 200k is massive.

[Njshawty]

3 hours ago, CaptainMusic said:

Ridiculous prediction

 

She’ll do 150-250k, which is great in this climate

She’s never sold less than 310k with all of her studio albums 

[Njshawty]

6 minutes ago, Jynx said:

Whatever the number anything over 200k is massive.

So if she does 310k what will that be to you?

[Njshawty]

8 minutes ago, MusicBiz234 said:

Reasonable expectation. I'm just excited for new music regardless

I don’t see anything less than 350k

[Body Talk]

 

Just now, Njshawty said:

So if she does 310k what will that be to you?

310k would be amazing in this climate.

[Njshawty]

9 minutes ago, umich said:

Even if she debuted with 4 numbers in this climate (300k), that would be great. Maybe this is based off of preorders and such… but considering Lemonade did these numbers 6+ years ago, I am not sure she will be able to replicate that.

 

But I would love to be proven wrong

Let’s get proven wrong! She has a hit on her hands and that always pushes her albums 

[Njshawty]

4 minutes ago, Body Talk said:

 

310k would be amazing in this climate.

I want her to double it to make everyone gag!!!

[Xtripped]

Anything over 250k would be great. But if true, the boxsets and vinyls preorders must be massive.

[RussianRoulette]

As if. 

[aesthetic bih]

If I'm being honest she can do anywhere between 300k to 500k, but let me be lowball and say she'll do 340k.

[More Than A Melody]

Can she do it? 100%

Will she do it? IDK.

Are HDD's predictions in any way reliable? Let's see:

 

Jack Harlow:

HDD prediction: 160/180K

Actual first week: 113K

HDD: -67K

 

Bad Bunny:

HDD prediction: 125/150K

Actual first week: 274K

HDD: +124K

 

Kendrick Lamar:

HDD prediction: 350/400K

Actual first week: 295K

HDD: -105K

 

Post Malone:

HDD prediction: 250/275K

Actual first week: 121K

HDD: -129K

 

Harry Styles:

HDD prediction: 400/450K

Actual first week: 521.5K

HDD: +71.5K

 

In conclusion... let's maybe wait until the actual week of release.

[Ash12345]

I don't see her doing more SEAs than Kendrick or Taylor (Red TV) which did 260k and 236k respectively. I'd expect 130k-180k SEAs. 

 

Taylor's pure declined around 70% from 1989/Reputation to Red TV, and Adele's pure decline was around 80%. If Beyonce's pure sales decline 60-80% from Lemonade to Renaissance, that would mean around 100k-200k pure. 

 

So total of 230k-380k SPS assuming the album is well received and promoted like Lemonade was. I think most people would agree this is realistic. 500k-600k just ain't happening.

[Jynx]

47 minutes ago, Njshawty said:

So if she does 310k what will that be to you?

Obviously amazing. I don't think Bey has ever gone under 300k with her main studio albums.

[Ash12345]

2 minutes ago, More Than A Melody said:

Can she do it? 100%

Will she do it? IDK.

Are HDD's predictions in any way reliable? Let's see:

 

Jack Harlow:

HDD prediction: 160/180K

Actual first week: 113K

HDD: -67K

 

Bad Bunny:

HDD prediction: 125/150K

Actual first week: 274K

HDD: +124K

 

Kendrick Lamar:

HDD prediction: 350/400K

Actual first week: 295K

HDD: -105K

 

Post Malone:

HDD prediction: 250/275K

Actual first week: 121K

HDD: -129K

 

Harry Styles:

HDD prediction: 400/450K

Actual first week: 521.5K

HDD: +71.5K

 

In conclusion... let's maybe wait until the actual week of release.

A few years ago, it used to be that older fanbases (Gen-X/Millenials) were more likely to be buying pure albums than Gen-Z, but I think at this point those older fans all have streaming accounts, so it's mostly about who has the most young passionate fans buying vinyls as collectibles (ie. Billie, Harry, BTS, Taylor, Olivia). I'm not sure if HDD is properly accounting for shift, so maybe that's why they underestimated Harry.

 

Obviously you can't really say for sure until the album comes out and you see how it gets received. But I think Kendrick, Taylor and Adele are good comparisons. Especially Adele and Kendrick. They're not the cool new thing anymore, but still came into their new albums as highly respected albums who released very popular albums several years ago and followed that by a long break. Taylor and her fanbase are probably a bit younger and she didn't take a break but she still doesn't have the same first week sales power as in 2010-2017.

 

Based off that, a more realistic prediction for Beyonce for a well received album would be around 300k SPS.

[PrudenceHCharmed]

1 hour ago, Ash12345 said:

A few years ago, it used to be that older fanbases (Gen-X/Millenials) were more likely to be buying pure albums than Gen-Z, but I think at this point those older fans all have streaming accounts, so it's mostly about who has the most young passionate fans buying vinyls as collectibles (ie. Billie, Harry, BTS, Taylor, Olivia). I'm not sure if HDD is properly accounting for shift, so maybe that's why they underestimated Harry.

 

Obviously you can't really say for sure until the album comes out and you see how it gets received. But I think Kendrick, Taylor and Adele are good comparisons. Especially Adele and Kendrick. They're not the cool new thing anymore, but still came into their new albums as highly respected albums who released very popular albums several years ago and followed that by a long break. Taylor and her fanbase are probably a bit younger and she didn't take a break but she still doesn't have the same first week sales power as in 2010-2017.

 

Based off that, a more realistic prediction for Beyonce for a well received album would be around 300k SPS.

Beyoncé is more confusing though because she debuted in the late 90s and have transitioned well into the streaming eras, therefore it safe to say she can do good pure sales and good streaming numbers. Among the MPG, she's probably the only one aside the titans that slay AM. Furthermore, all her previous releases are sabotaged such as ST having no physical and 3 days tracking week; Lemonade not having streaming and 4 days tracking; same goes to EIL. Both TG & HC was only digitally released but sold 11K and 14K respectively which outsold Drake's latest. 

 

From that list, Harry and BB exceeded expectations while Kendrick (and Drake) underperformed might because of: 

 

i) No physical copies (Bey had multiples)

ii) Decline in quality (B seems to have no problem with it) 

iii) No hit single beforehand (Kendrick) 

 

OT: It will be really impressive for her to sell 300K-400K considering no other female post-2011 did 300K aside from Adele and Taylor and herself (or Pink).

 

[BnPac]

Ch... They have no way to know this and have been way off these last weeks. Most of their predictions didn't hold lately. 

 

She hasn't done a thing, no promo, no video, no performances, it's too soon. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by BnPac