discussion Mpox (Monkeypox) thread - 1st case outside Africa

[Miracle]

 

For those saying this gives them COVID vibes, let's compare news at the beginning of COVID vs the news regarding this virus.

 

COVID, January 23rd article

"Those who have sought treatment show a consistent pattern of symptoms: an initial fever, dry cough, and, within a week, difficulty with breathing. Up to one in five who seek medical help will end up requiring ventilation or life support. There are no antivirals or other treatments; patients either recover or die. All those who have been hospitalised are over 40. Prof Peter Horby, from the University of Oxford, said the two key uncertainties were how transmissible the virus was between people, and how deadly: “These will determine the risk the world faces at the current time.”

 

vs

 

It is a usually mild infection, with symptoms including fever, headaches and a distinctive bumpy rash.

Twenty cases have been detected in Britain - where authorities are offering a smallpox vaccine to healthcare workers and others who may have been exposed.

The UK Health Security Agency has said a notable proportion of recent cases in Britain and Europe have been found in gay and bisexual men. 

Spain is assessing different therapeutic options, such as antivirals and vaccines, but so far all cases have mild symptoms and therefore no specific ad hoc treatment has been necessary, Spanish Health minister Carolina Darias told reporters on Friday.

The Portuguese cases remain under clinical follow-up but none have been hospitalized as they are all stable, the health authority said."

 

 

COVID: New, unknown virus, lots of cases are deadly and 1 in 5 have to use respirators (so far there hasn't been any severe monkeypop cases in Europe and there's around 200 rumoured cases), no treatment, respiratory transmission hints since the very first reports (although they still didn't know how it transmitted) no antivirals or vaccine, limited research okits cousin SARS since that ended pretty quickly. Lots of people dying in very little time, big lockdowns in Wuhan. No relation between people who had risky close contact activies, everyone catching it at the same time and mostly affecting older people with less social activity. RNA virus which means way more mutations. Zero awareness or understanding of how pandemics work. 

 

TL;DR: Covid was a very worrying disease that showed deaths and severe cases in China since the very beginning of the epidemic in Wuhan that was brushed off because we didn't quite understand what a modern pandemic could look like in the 21st century so there was zero containment effort in Europe before it became a massive global pandemic. 

 

Monkeypox: Known cases are rising but all of them are so far mild, given how most of the infections happened it almost confirms the virus still has the same main way of reproducing: through very close, skin-to-skin contact. Known death rate of around 1% in West Africa, where kids mortality is already pretty high due to malnutrition and poor healthcare, almost no lethality in adults even in West Africa. Sequenced genome (at least the ones in Portugal and Belgium) seem to be identical to the West African clade regarding protein-making genes, there's known antivirals that work (sadly, they are not readily available) but we have vaccines which some countries like the UK are already giving to close contacs. USA has enough vaccines for their entire population. 30% of the western population has some kind of immunity towards smallpox and therefore monkkey and orthopoxviruses can be contained by only vaccinating those in contact with people infected. Most cases can be pinpointed to saunas, fetish parties and sex travel, unlikely that it could be transmitted through public transportion, but we have masks for that. Probably a little more infectious than the West African clade (or a perfect storm of risky sexual behaviour and partying happened at the right time + increasing susceptibility to orthopoxviruses) but very, very, very far from the contagiousness of Omicron, Delta or even the original strain. More opportunities to contain outbreaks since symptoms are very visible and only similar to STD-symptoms, which tend to be checked for way more than a simple fever. Quick response of the health authorities with tracing contacts, and most importantly, offering post-exposure protection to close contacts of people already infected. 

 

TL;DR: Monkeypox is a virus which hasn't changed (or barely changed) genetically from the one we know it's not super contagious, a virus we have treatments for and a post-pandemic fear that has alerted every country and healthcare system, who are already taking important measures to contain outbreaks.

 

 

We'll see how this develops in two weeks, cause we'll probably have most reponses to whether this is just an illness to be slightly concerned about or another worldwide tragedy that could stop the world

 

So, in two weeks:

 

#HotGirlSummer: the virus has mutated to become an STD and condoms and frequent analysis between people who have sex with mulriple partners (aka what we should be doing now), death rate remains low.

Extremely good and definitive positive signs: Less than 5,000 cases worldwide, death rate below 0,8% when there's more than 1000 cases, more than 2/3rds of the cases on people who participate on risky sex (saunas, cruising, sex travel, unprotected sex) or are partners/household family of thos ewho have 

Good but not definitively positive signs: Less than 10,000 cases WW, death rate below 1%, at least 2/3rds of the cases come from people who had risky sexual activity

Neutral signs (pointing towards a pandemic but very far from what we had/have with COVID-19): Less than 15,000 cases ww but the death rate stays below 1% and 2/3rds  cases can be traced to very close skin-to-skin contact

Bad, but we have vaccines and treatments: Between 10,000-20,000 cases, death rate at most 1,5% and mostly in immunocompromised people, at least 30-40% of cases can be traced back to regular situations of zero travel and regular sexual activity

We are doomed: +20,000 cases, death rate higher than 1,5% but higher in kids/people with immunodefiencies, at least 40-50% of the cases cannot be explained by really close contact, most breakouts cannot be linked directly to travelling or risky sexual behaviour. This would mean we're facing a completely different version of the Monkeypox virus that might not react to the vaccine. Even then, there's still hope if the genome of the european clade doesn't vary much from the West African one, cause vaccines should work then. 

Let's kill ourselves: All of the we are doomed arguments but a big chunk of severe cases beyond the deaths and big changes in the genome of the original West African monkeypox clade.

 

I think only the we are doomed and let's kill ourselves scenarios would prompt measures similar to the COVID-19 and lockdowns only on the last scenario

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Miracle

[CaptainMusic]

1 hour ago, Whis said:

Omg I saw a twittervideo of someone f*cking a rat 

 

1 hour ago, ProudLBS said:

I'm sure some people are into R*ssy 

WTF  

[Headlock]

10 hours ago, J Legend X said:

 

 

also, if someone had it young, I'm sure that vaccine won't work 20 years later, so I assume you have to have it again ? 

Nope, smallpox vaccine is not one you need boosters for.

[Headlock]

2 hours ago, magicfever said:

I've read that chickenpox aren't actually caused by a pox-virus, but a herpes-virus, so they are pretty different from monkeypox and smallpox.

Correct, it is caused by varicella zoster, which is in the herpes family.

 

Also I know (hope) people are being facetious but you do not need to… “**** a rat”… for animal to human transmission 

[Headlock]

4 hours ago, Last Boy on Earth said:

Is it transmitted through kissing? Cause I don’t mind just kissing during pride. What about oral sex? There’s so many posts here and barely any info 

“Body to body contact” can cause transmission. So yes, kissing someone with an active case would count.

[Bentley]

I had a hook up earlier this week. Pray for me 

 

[ButterflyXIII]

On 5/21/2022 at 1:27 PM, Lose My Breath said:

Younger as in children

oh carry on then 

[Breathe On Moi]

 plz, y’all will try to find anything to hang on to post Covid 

[Genius1111]

Belgium introduces quarantine for monkeypox cases – POLITICO

 

21 days

[GhostBox]

So mostly people who can’t stop sleeping around are the ones mostly getting affected ? I’m not shocked 

[diamondsky]

5 hours ago, Genius1111 said:

 

Not the map in the corner literally being NATO  putin this you?

[Protocol]

7 hours ago, Last Boy on Earth said:

Is it transmitted through kissing? Cause I don’t mind just kissing during pride. What about oral sex? There’s so many posts here and barely any info 

Yes you will get it through kissing

[Cute]

On 5/21/2022 at 1:30 PM, oceans said:

i will NOT live throughout another pandemic, take that as you want 

OMG NOT YOU BEING BACK

 

HELLO!!!! 

[DONTYELLATME]

 

[oceans]

1 hour ago, Cute said:

OMG NOT YOU BEING BACK

 

HELLO!!!! 

i heard people were saying i was dead from a car crash

so i had to clear things up

but if we have another pandemic i might have to take matters into my own hands

[ButterflyXIII]

1 hour ago, ☆lex said:

Not the map in the corner literally being NATO  putin this you?

putin is definitely a little fruity, he hates gays too much

Edited May 22, 2022 by ButterflyXIII
typo

[DONTYELLATME]

 

[DevonRoars]

It’s something else every damn year. I’m tired 

[lovedaddy]

1 hour ago, DONTYELLATME said:

 

here we go again

[Bloodflowers.]

What is this? How does it spread? Like corona? How often do people die?

[Hurem]

Certain left-wing activists in my country are attacking doctors for stating the virus is spreading primarily between gay men, so we have people in comments attacking the gays

 

All those people attacking me for “sex shaming” when I said I didn’t support the anti-condom and pro-drugs movement in the community must be looking like clowns now!

[chris1991]

2 hours ago, DONTYELLATME said:

 

Ummmm whats going on?

[Bussea]

lord what the ****

[Bloodflowers.]

So is this an STD or do you get this like corona?

 

 

Once you recover after 21 days or however it takes, you can't spread it anymore?

 

 

If this starts infecting the straights throughout air like corona then RIP gay rights and hello homophobic backlash, it's gonna be like the 80s but even worse for us

 

 

If this is an STD then I'll be okay since I don't hookup, I am a Christian

 

 

[Yellowfever]

9 hours ago, ProudLBS said:

I'm sure some people are into R*ssy