discussion 95th Academy Awards

[futurenostalgic]

On 11/30/2022 at 12:07 PM, fridayteenage said:

he's winning, it's a done deal.

now we just need the movie to win pic, directing, writing, vfx, and actress.

 

Yeah for my comment about Quan last time, I meant that he may be the only Actor from EEAAO to materialize with the major wins at the end. Michelle Yeoh is lacking the wins especially after all that hype, with Deadwyler coming in hot too. Gonna be an interesting race, but she may fall short of expectations. Obvi, it's still early before industry period. But I don't see Quan and Yeoh holding trophies in the same night.

Edited December 3, 2022 by futurenostalgic

[fridayteenage]

It's possible, but at this time last year a lot of ppl were thinking Dog would sweep

[Riot]

Prayer circle for Austin Butler to pull an Adam Driver and not a Rami Malek

[Gui Blackout]

Not NYFCC cursing Cate...

 

Congrats Michelle 

[Liafen]

Legend Yeoh's chances are also hurt by the fact that EEAAO is win-competitve in both Director and Picture; with Quan taking Supporting Actor. The 'spread the love' principle makes Legend Blanchett more awardable as Tár, while in the Top 5 for BP, will probably not win any other award whatsoever.

[fridayteenage]

carol:

better reviews than tar

better box office than tar

less divisive than tar based on RT audience score

more pedigreed cast than tar, with rooney and sarah, and also a period piece based on classic novel

=0 wins globes/baftas/oscars

[Liafen]

Nobody is speaking about Carol though. Another year, a whole different set of circumstances and Blanchett is the frontrunner with Yeoh.

[Life Savers]

It's not TÁR competing, it's Cate Blanchett and she's doing well. Carol had a category fraud going on anyway. Rooting for Cate's third myself, but also very happy with a Michelle win. 

[Guest]

@Liafen @Life Savers @fridayteenage @Gui Blackout @Riot  @futurenostalgic @Donquizote @hausofdave @kandicha @McNulty @EnigmaticAndroid @Broken @wehan6 @Hector @Héloïse

 

Hey guys, I’m doing Oscar voting this year like I’ve done for the last few years through Discord. We’ve lost some members and need some replacements, so we’re opening up to new members. It’s all run through Discord, and the invite link is below.
 

How it works is everybody votes on the Oscar nominees like Oscar voters do, and the votes are counted preferentially like the Academy does, so the ballots must be numbered through all nominees.

 

I am also a member of a certain film critics group who do yearly awards, and the higher ups of that association are also involved in this, so there is possibly of joining there to..

 

Here is the discord link, hope you can join. Have a look at our recent results which are archived to see if it’s something you seem interested in.

 

https://discord.gg/kMdrYfT3

[Donquizote]

When all is said and done, Legend Blanchett will have 4 Oscars and join Legend Hepburn. 

whew when you talentry

[MAXIMO]

Cate was great in Tár, I wouldn't say one of her best, but she did a lot of work to prepare for it and it showed. However, Deadwyler ATE in Till, with the right campaign she could become the second black actress to win BA, she has the perfect role for it. I predict her to snatch SAG at the very least. 

[Liafen]

After careful consideration, I think Miss Blanchett is taking it. 

 

[Green]

I doubt EEAAO is taking 2 acting wins.

[ALittleGauche]

8 hours ago, MAXIMO said:

Cate was great in Tár, I wouldn't say one of her best, but she did a lot of work to prepare for it and it showed. However, Deadwyler ATE in Till, with the right campaign she could become the second black actress to win BA, she has the perfect role for it. I predict her to snatch SAG at the very least. 

Imagine awarding a white actress her third BA win, when there are two equally outstanding performances from Yeoh and Deadwyler. Imagine awarding a white actress her third BA win, when there has only been 1 non-white actress to win out of 78. I recognize that it should be all about the quality of the work, but all of that is subjective and often politically charged anyway.

Edited December 4, 2022 by ALittleGauche

[Dark Miracles]

23 hours ago, fridayteenage said:

carol:

better reviews than tar

better box office than tar

less divisive than tar based on RT audience score

more pedigreed cast than tar, with rooney and sarah, and also a period piece based on classic novel

=0 wins globes/baftas/oscars

2015 awards season was a clear sign of Weinstein's influence diminishing, I think mostly Carol suffered because of it.

I'm just glad Morricone didn't lose his first win and JJL didn't miss out on her first nomination

Edited December 4, 2022 by Dark Miracles

[Riot]

In 2015, Brie Larson was also sweeping every single award basically. It's so weird that she didn't make much noise afterwards (with the exception of Captain Marvel, of course).

[Liafen]

1 hour ago, Riot said:

In 2015, Brie Larson was also sweeping every single award basically. It's so weird that she didn't make much noise afterwards (with the exception of Captain Marvel, of course).

And even with CM under her belt, she’s one of the least recognized & most forgettable Marvel stars. Truly the worst career after-win trajectory out of the Best Actress winners for God knows how long

Edited December 4, 2022 by Liafen

[Dark Phoenix]

The more time that it passes the more it seems like EEAAO was a fad/ one hit wonder moment, I would love for Yeoh to win but Cate made a more precise role and acting.

 

I want to see Till and Women Talking just to finish the films that could led to female acting noms, I don’t expect Naomie Ackie to get it.

 

Bones & All was weird and it’s not getting anything besides and acting nom maybe for Mark Rylance? Also imagine if Evan Rachel gets a nom for playing Madonna ?

[kandicha]

5 hours ago, ALittleGauche said:

Imagine awarding a white actress her third BA win, when there are two equally outstanding performances from Yeoh and Deadwyler. Imagine awarding a white actress her third BA win, when there has only been 1 non-white actress to win out of 78. I recognize that it should be all about the quality of the work, but all of that is subjective and often politically charged anyway.

Didn’t the same thing happen two years ago, when they had the opportunity to give either Viola Davis her first Best Actress (after having a Best Supporting Actress win?) or Andra Day Best Actress and they gave Frances McDormand her third instead? the Academy simply don’t care about the optics if they like the movie and the performance enough unfortunately

 

All that said, TÁR is not going to win Best Picture the way Nomadland was sweeping for Best Picture so while I’m leaning towards Cate Blanchett for my prediction, I don’t count Danielle Deadwyler or Michelle Yeoh out of the race just yet. I think at least one of them will win a Golden Globe and one of them will win the SAG so that will be an opportunity to give a charming and memorable speech and help improve their chances for the Oscar too

[Liafen]

If Mother Yeoh gives a nice speech at the Globes, that could sway the race MASSIVELY in her favor. 

[Donquizote]

LA Film Critics: Blanchett

National Society of Film Critics: Deadwyler

Globe Drama: Deadwyler

Globe Comedy: Yeoh

SAG: Yeoh

BAFTA: Blanchett

Oscar: Blanchett

[Donquizote]

I'm predicting Blanchett will have similar run to McDormand.

No Globe or SAG, but she'll win BAFTA and finally take Oscar.

[Dark Poet]

I'm rooting for Yeoh.

 

Honestly, I think that Jessica Lange will get her Thrid Oscar before Blanchett. She has just filmed a film adaptation of Long Day's Journey Into The Night. 

[family.guy123]

10 hours ago, kandicha said:

Didn’t the same thing happen two years ago, when they had the opportunity to give either Viola Davis her first Best Actress (after having a Best Supporting Actress win?) or Andra Day Best Actress and they gave Frances McDormand her third instead? the Academy simply don’t care about the optics if they like the movie and the performance enough unfortunately

 

All that said, TÁR is not going to win Best Picture the way Nomadland was sweeping for Best Picture so while I’m leaning towards Cate Blanchett for my prediction, I don’t count Danielle Deadwyler or Michelle Yeoh out of the race just yet. I think at least one of them will win a Golden Globe and one of them will win the SAG so that will be an opportunity to give a charming and memorable speech and help improve their chances for the Oscar too

Why “unfortunately”?

[kandicha]

Just now, family.guy123 said:

Why “unfortunately”?

For me - I love Cate and I also love Michelle, so I won't be upset if Cate wins but I'm just frustrated that Michelle might never get an Oscar baity role that puts her in contention for the Oscar conversation again.