BNF91 Posted January 28 Posted January 28 After 1.5 days of official presales, very early forecast looks like $10M Thursday previews and early access shows. Some areas are over indexing for $12M+ while others are just below with $9M. Solid start. This is 33 days out, so this may and likely will change as marketing ramps up for the month. I imagine WB is going to go all out. There are a number of re-releases for Dune worldwide through the month and Christopher Nolan's Tenet IMAX re-release will have the Dune Part Two sneak preview attached as well. 1
KnightOfAllRealms Posted January 28 Posted January 28 11 hours ago, BNF91 said: After 1.5 days of official presales, very early forecast looks like $10M Thursday previews and early access shows. Some areas are over indexing for $12M+ while others are just below with $9M. Solid start. This is 33 days out, so this may and likely will change as marketing ramps up for the month. I imagine WB is going to go all out. There are a number of re-releases for Dune worldwide through the month and Christopher Nolan's Tenet IMAX re-release will have the Dune Part Two sneak preview attached as well. How much that means for OW?
BNF91 Posted January 28 Posted January 28 40 minutes ago, KnightOfAllRealms said: How much that means for OW? Really early to say but the range would be maybe $60-80M 1
KnightOfAllRealms Posted January 28 Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, BNF91 said: Really early to say but the range would be maybe $60-80M Do you know how it compares to across the spiderverse?? how much did it sell 30 days till release??
BNF91 Posted January 28 Posted January 28 (edited) 2 hours ago, KnightOfAllRealms said: Do you know how it compares to across the spiderverse?? how much did it sell 30 days till release?? No clue sorry. It's not gonna match Spiderverse previews that's for sure. But it doesn't need to. Anyways there's a month still and WB is gonna go all out for this, plus a probable Superbowl spot.. with the solid start to presales I think a $60M weekend is the floor tbh. Edited January 28 by BNF91 1
ctlp27 Posted January 29 Posted January 29 I really think this has a billion dollar high potential. Movie did great with day to day stream + COVID, I'm sure tons of people discovered it on streaming later as well but would want to get the IMAX big screen experience like Avatar 2 and Oppenheimer.
BNF91 Posted January 29 Posted January 29 2 hours ago, ctlp27 said: I really think this has a billion dollar high potential. Movie did great with day to day stream + COVID, I'm sure tons of people discovered it on streaming later as well but would want to get the IMAX big screen experience like Avatar 2 and Oppenheimer. That's just, a massive jump and I'm not sure where the money comes from. We will see nice increases from Part 1 in most places, especially Europe (will be huge there). But the loss of Russia (Dune 4th biggest market in 2021) and the China downturn now that they are just shunning Hollywood productions en masse (just a $14M projection for part 2) is a detriment. Anything above $550M should be considered a good result. $550M itself would be an amazing number for sci-fi these days. I'm personally rooting for $630M (200 domestic/430 OS). $1B+ for Part 1 & 2 together would be incredible.
KFC Posted January 29 Posted January 29 3 hours ago, ctlp27 said: I really think this has a billion dollar high potential. Movie did great with day to day stream + COVID, I'm sure tons of people discovered it on streaming later as well but would want to get the IMAX big screen experience like Avatar 2 and Oppenheimer. There's no way lol 1 1
BNF91 Posted January 29 Posted January 29 (edited) Btw good momentum from day 3 presales, some comps have inched upward. Sacramento, Denver, NYC and Florida comps suggesting possible $10M previews alone (not including early access shows, which have sold like bonkers). Minneapolis comp is currently pacing just ahead of Oppenheimer ($11.3M) The theatre I'm tracking (Toronto Scotiabank) has been pretty gangbusters, already collecting $50k! from just IMAX presales for opening wknd alone (1805 tickets). A definite outlier, but goes to show just how strong sales for PLF formats will be. Very much an Avatar 2, Oppenheimer situation where people are opting for the best possible seats on the best formats. Edited January 29 by BNF91 1 2
ctlp27 Posted January 30 Posted January 30 20 hours ago, BNF91 said: That's just, a massive jump and I'm not sure where the money comes from. We will see nice increases from Part 1 in most places, especially Europe (will be huge there). But the loss of Russia (Dune 4th biggest market in 2021) and the China downturn now that they are just shunning Hollywood productions en masse (just a $14M projection for part 2) is a detriment. Anything above $550M should be considered a good result. $550M itself would be an amazing number for sci-fi these days. I'm personally rooting for $630M (200 domestic/430 OS). $1B+ for Part 1 & 2 together would be incredible. I tend to agree with you, but I am really not ruling out the billion or north of $800M. Pool is huge for it, despite China and Russia, and again with the release date change, there is a whole month of no big opponents at the BO. Barbie and Oppenheimer (I agree no sequels, no sci-fi) could defy the odds, and if Dune 2 reviews are great, there is no way it cannot increase at least 40 % on the COVID-impacted BO of the first.
BNF91 Posted January 30 Posted January 30 Tickets for the Paris world premiere at Le Grand Rex screening on Feb 12th sold out in... 1 minute
BNF91 Posted February 8 Posted February 8 South Korean presales have begun and are quite frankly, on fire. Nearly doubling the day 1 presales of Oppenheimer. 3
BNF91 Posted February 8 Posted February 8 10 minute extended sneak preview.. this is what we got to see at the special IMAX screenings of Part 1 a couple weeks ago. Paul's first ride scene in full and an insane sizzle reel after. Absolute majesty
Lightbringer007 Posted February 9 Posted February 9 would not be surprised if this movie becomes the 1st one to hit 1B this year
supercutofus Posted February 9 Posted February 9 id love to see it break out in that way, and it does have about 4 weeks of lackluster competition to churn. the only thing i wonder about is the more casual audience AND the ability of it to be a movie that people want to revisit again and again. i think the stars will help it with the younger audience though which is incredibly important. for now, im still leaning towards something in the 700-800 million range but id love to be proven wrong!! 1
Dark Phoenix Posted February 9 Posted February 9 I went to the premiere in Mexico City, got Timmy to sign my CMBYN vinyl and Zendaya and Austin signed my Dune merch, Miss Flo skipped my zone 😭 Anyway the movie is epic, think of Return of The King + The Ten Commandments; it’s epic in scope, it’s very biblical / religious and Middle East inspired. The first act or hour feels kinda slow very similar to the first movie, but after that the intrigues and action sequences are non-stop and there’s so many surprises and turns that keep you gagged. Austin did a great job here, kinda reminds me of Heath Ledger as the Joker because of how crazy and psychopath he was. Timmy was good and this felt very Anakin turning dark/baddie in Episode II, can’t wait how he evolves for the third one. Zendaya was just ok, Miss Flo didn’t have much to do, Javier Bardem surprisingly has several funny moments and Lady Jessica/Rebecca was great and spooky too. Overall this one improved so much the gaps of the first one and leaves you feeling like you witnessed a masterpiece, it feels like an event film, Nolan said TESB/Episode V but honestly even as a SW fan I would said that this is much better than that, so many characters, beautiful photography, the sound was epic. 1 1
BNF91 Posted February 9 Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Dark Phoenix said: I went to the premiere in Mexico City, got Timmy to sign my CMBYN vinyl and Zendaya and Austin signed my Dune merch, Miss Flo skipped my zone 😭 Anyway the movie is epic, think of Return of The King + The Ten Commandments; it’s epic in scope, it’s very biblical / religious and Middle East inspired. The first act or hour feels kinda slow very similar to the first movie, but after that the intrigues and action sequences are non-stop and there’s so many surprises and turns that keep you gagged. Austin did a great job here, kinda reminds me of Heath Ledger as the Joker because of how crazy and psychopath he was. Timmy was good and this felt very Anakin turning dark/baddie in Episode II, can’t wait how he evolves for the third one. Zendaya was just ok, Miss Flo didn’t have much to do, Javier Bardem surprisingly has several funny moments and Lady Jessica/Rebecca was great and spooky too. Overall this one improved so much the gaps of the first one and leaves you feeling like you witnessed a masterpiece, it feels like an event film, Nolan said TESB/Episode V but honestly even as a SW fan I would said that this is much better than that, so many characters, beautiful photography, the sound was epic. Omg lucky! Thanks for the review... The fact that you thought it was even better than the Star Wars comparison, don't get me hyped anymore than I already am
illia Posted February 9 Posted February 9 (edited) 5 hours ago, Dark Phoenix said: I went to the premiere in Mexico City, got Timmy to sign my CMBYN vinyl and Zendaya and Austin signed my Dune merch, Miss Flo skipped my zone 😭 Anyway the movie is epic, think of Return of The King + The Ten Commandments; it’s epic in scope, it’s very biblical / religious and Middle East inspired. The first act or hour feels kinda slow very similar to the first movie, but after that the intrigues and action sequences are non-stop and there’s so many surprises and turns that keep you gagged. Austin did a great job here, kinda reminds me of Heath Ledger as the Joker because of how crazy and psychopath he was. Timmy was good and this felt very Anakin turning dark/baddie in Episode II, can’t wait how he evolves for the third one. Zendaya was just ok, Miss Flo didn’t have much to do, Javier Bardem surprisingly has several funny moments and Lady Jessica/Rebecca was great and spooky too. Overall this one improved so much the gaps of the first one and leaves you feeling like you witnessed a masterpiece, it feels like an event film, Nolan said TESB/Episode V but honestly even as a SW fan I would said that this is much better than that, so many characters, beautiful photography, the sound was epic. Spoiler question: Spoiler was Alia in the movie? if yes, how did they portray her? like was it an actual kid, or was she edited in, or what? I've been wondering how they would pull it off with her Edited February 9 by illia
Dark Phoenix Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Hey @illia ! So: Spoiler From the start she’s shown as a fetus several times and that it has the ability to talk to Lady Jessica and then after Jessica drinks the water of life the fetus obtains new powers and also has the ability to have visions and I guess speak more to Jessica? Then when Paul drinks the water of life he has a vision of her sister which is Anya Taylor! And she says something like don’t worry brother we’ll be ok… and that’s it. By the end of the film she’s not yet born and neither Chani. 1
rac7d Posted February 10 Posted February 10 On 1/28/2024 at 2:24 PM, BNF91 said: No clue sorry. It's not gonna match Spiderverse previews that's for sure. But it doesn't need to. Anyways there's a month still and WB is gonna go all out for this, plus a probable Superbowl spot.. with the solid start to presales I think a $60M weekend is the floor tbh. WB doesn’t do Super Bowl spots
BNF91 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Part 1's re-release aims to collect another $2M this weekend domestically
BNF91 Posted February 15 Posted February 15 Absolute raves coming out of Paris premiere. "Masterpiece, best sci-fi in years, big improvement over Part 1" Presales continue to be strong, average seems to be around $10-11M for Thursday previews (without Early Access shows included). My theatre has crossed 3000 tickets sold for opening weekend just in the single IMAX theatre, not counting regular shows. I expect upcoming London premiere reactions and reviews next week to continue to bolster presales.
BNF91 Posted February 15 Posted February 15 I can smell the viral.. already 11k likes on that film updates page. She served all the way down.
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