movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[BNF91]

Very early Friday- M3GAN smashing but Avatar narrowly holding it off for #1.  $11M for A2 and $10.7M for M3GAN. A2 on track for $39-42M wknd. M3GAN $25-30M. Even the low end would be a brilliant post holiday hold for Avatar. 

 

[GraceRandolph]

1 minute ago, Donquizote said:

People will always continue to underestimate Cameron even though he has already proven them wrong three times

I think once they release Avatar 3, people will think it will underperform but I think Cameron will prove them wrong again

I’m wondering if the third movie dips a bit, and then the movies pick up in terms of box office as the story gets closer to its finale. 

[mystery]

1 minute ago, Donquizote said:

People will always continue to underestimate Cameron even though he has already proven them wrong three times

I think once they release Avatar 3, people will think it will underperform but I think Cameron will prove them wrong again

then the wait for Avatar 4 will make them say it will bomb and it starts all over again

[mystery]

Just now, BNF91 said:

Very early Friday- M3GAN smashing but Avatar narrowly holding it off for #1.  $11M for A2 and $10.7M for M3GAN. A2 on track for $39-42M wknd. M3GAN $25-30M. Even the low end would be a brilliant post holiday hold for Avatar. 

 

The global weekend will bring it frustratingly close to 1.7b on Sunday, it will probably hit it on Monday though.

[BNF91]

Just now, mystery said:

The global weekend will bring it frustratingly close to 1.7b on Sunday, it will probably hit it on Monday though.

Waiting to see what Fri OS is like. Still possible for $1.7B by Sunday I think. Domestic will be around $512M. We need a $113M+ OS wknd at least. Very much possible off a $23.4M Thursday. Just depends on if we will see standard jumps or muted ones this wknd. 

[Da Vinci]

I think 3 and 4 are gonna be better cause 2 is that weird transition phase where they had to reintroduce all the characters and locations not just to the fans

but also to Gen Z who weren't even alive when the first one came out AND introduce new ones and a new overarching saga

 

Hopefully the next ones will be more coherent with better editing/pacing and dialogue!

He did say in an interview that the bosses (?) thought 4's script was better than 3's which was better than 2's

 

Earth/forest tribe = blue

Water tribe = teal

Fire tribe = red?

Air tribe? = purple?

 

[Space Cowboy]

3 hours ago, Sharapov said:

Good for this movie smashing but I think 3 will actually underperform, this movie was basically like avatar 1 2.0 so i wonder what they'll do with part 3...

The cast and Cameron himself said that Avatar 3 is much better than 2. 
 

I don’t know know how can you think that Avatar 3 could underperform after Avatar 2 stellar performance. The GP loves Avatar and they will always show up to watch it on theaters. With a healthy China and Russia, Avatar 3 could challenge the highest grossing film of all time title imo.

[mystery]

6 hours ago, Da Vinci said:

I think 3 and 4 are gonna be better cause 2 is that weird transition phase where they had to reintroduce all the characters and locations not just to the fans

but also to Gen Z who weren't even alive when the first one came out AND introduce new ones and a new overarching saga

 

Hopefully the next ones will be more coherent with better editing/pacing and dialogue!

He did say in an interview that the bosses (?) thought 4's script was better than 3's which was better than 2's

 

Earth/forest tribe = blue

Water tribe = teal

Fire tribe = red?

Air tribe? = purple?

 

I think they will still all be blue tinged, Na'vi being bright red would be a bit jarring. I think the Ash tribe will just be a bit greyish, a potential desert tribe could be almost white, mountain tribe could end up as purple tinged but still blue. 

[Steve Johnson]

7 hours ago, Da Vinci said:

I think 3 and 4 are gonna be better cause 2 is that weird transition phase where they had to reintroduce all the characters and locations not just to the fans

but also to Gen Z who weren't even alive when the first one came out AND introduce new ones and a new overarching saga

 

Hopefully the next ones will be more coherent with better editing/pacing and dialogue!

He did say in an interview that the bosses (?) thought 4's script was better than 3's which was better than 2's

 

Earth/forest tribe = blue

Water tribe = teal

Fire tribe = red?

Air tribe? = purple?

 

Red? That would be horrible 

[Distantconstellation]

8 hours ago, Da Vinci said:

I think 3 and 4 are gonna be better cause 2 is that weird transition phase where they had to reintroduce all the characters and locations not just to the fans

but also to Gen Z who weren't even alive when the first one came out AND introduce new ones and a new overarching saga

 

Hopefully the next ones will be more coherent with better editing/pacing and dialogue!

He did say in an interview that the bosses (?) thought 4's script was better than 3's which was better than 2's

 

Earth/forest tribe = blue

Water tribe = teal

Fire tribe = red?

Air tribe? = purple?

 

Is the oldest gen z like 26 years old? They were most definitely alive. 

[Steve Johnson]

Will it pass $2 billion?  

[mystery]

2 hours ago, Distantconstellation said:

Is the oldest gen z like 26 years old? They were most definitely alive. 

There are probably some tail end members of Gen Z that weren't alive when the first Avatar came out in 2009. According to Wikipedia the range for Gen-Z is from 1997 to 2012 so the youngest members of the generation would just have turned 10 years old.

I honestly disagree with that range and see Gen Z ending at 2009 at its maximum. 2012 is too far to be the same generation as someone born in the late 90s. The late members of Gen-Z born in 2005 and later probably aren't old enough to remember the first film. 

[Gaia]

4 hours ago, mystery said:

There are probably some tail end members of Gen Z that weren't alive when the first Avatar came out in 2009. According to Wikipedia the range for Gen-Z is from 1997 to 2012 so the youngest members of the generation would just have turned 10 years old.

I honestly disagree with that range and see Gen Z ending at 2009 at its maximum. 2012 is too far to be the same generation as someone born in the late 90s. The late members of Gen-Z born in 2005 and later probably aren't old enough to remember the first film. 

1997 to 2012 is literally only a 15 year gap.

 

Same as Gen X, Millennials, etc.

 

There is not a new generation every 10 years.

[BNF91]

Ok Friday domestic getting spicy!

 

Both Avatar and M3GAN are doing stellar business this weekend. M3GAN seems to have beat Avatar on Friday. $11.7M for her (with Thursday previews included). Could get very close to $30M OW for the robodoll. Very strong debut. 

 

Avatar is chugging right along. Friday is looking really good, $11.4M. Well above my $10.8M needed for $40M+ this weekend. Saturday will see a very nice increase which will separate the two films as M3GAN'S Saturday will drop from Friday (horror movie, debut weekend, Thursday previews lumped in with Friday inflates opening day). Hoping for $17.5M Sat at least for Avatar. Should get more. Can still hit upwards of $43-45M for the weekend too. 

[cruelhprince]

I have a feeling A3 could do better than ATWOW, or at least hit 2bi

[BNF91]

Avatar 2 Weekly Domestic

 

WK 1- $197M

WK 2- $160M (-19%)

WK 3- $113M (-29%)

 

 

[BNF91]

China chugging along. Maoyan forecasting now a $221M finish. 

 

Forecast has gone from $120M, to $150M, to $180M, to $200M, to $213M and now to $221M since opening weekend. 

 

Still no OS Friday estimate yet. Based on a few markets though, Europe still extremely strong through the 4th weekend, that's for sure. 

[mystery]

3 hours ago, Gaia said:

1997 to 2012 is literally only a 15 year gap.

 

Same as Gen X, Millennials, etc.

 

There is not a new generation every 10 years.

I know that but personally I would say it ranges from 1995 - 2010.

[X~MoviePoP]

So did wakanda forever get that chinese release date

[mystery]

9 minutes ago, X~MoviePoP said:

So did wakanda forever get that chinese release date

No, it probably won't.

[BNF91]

China was considering giving BP a small run before Spring Festival just to keep the box office going. But doesn't look like it's happening as Avatar has legged it out. 

 

Anyways Saturday numbers! Avatar is killing. Huge increases. $20M is looking good for Saturday. All the trackers are coalescing around $20M or perhaps more. One is saying $21M  Way better than even I expected! $45M+ weekend in play.

 

Fyi if Avatar 2 does hit $20M Sat, it will be only the 2nd film in history to ever have a $20M day so late in its run, after the first Avatar

Edited January 8, 2023 by BNF91

[Donquizote]

1 hour ago, BNF91 said:

China was considering giving BP a small run before Spring Festival just to keep the box office going. But doesn't look like it's happening as Avatar has legged it out. 

 

Anyways Saturday numbers! Avatar is killing. Huge increases. $20M is looking good for Saturday. All the trackers are coalescing around $20M or perhaps more. Way better than even I expected! $45M+ weekend in play.

 

Fyi if Avatar 2 does hit $20M Sat, it will be the ONLY film in history to ever have a $20M day so late in its run. 

[Reb'l Rêveur]

Is 2billion global on lock? 

[BNF91]

35 minutes ago, Reb'l Rêveur said:

Is 2billion global on lock? 

It'll be at $1.7B after 3.5 weeks, you tell me sis. 

[mystery]

It appears it is pacing for a 2.05b to 2.2b finish. 

1. Avatar - 1.922b
2. Avengers: Endgame - 2.797b
3. Titanic - 2.187b
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 2.068b 
5. Avengers: Infinity War - 2.048b
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 1.916b 
7. Jurassic World - 1.671b
8. The Lion King - 1.656b
9. (+1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 1.558b 
10. The Avengers - 1.518b