movie Avatar: The Way of Water | Billions: 2 | Oscar Noms: 4 | Best Picture Noms: 1

[BNF91]

Seeing the way the actuals increase, I am seeing $7m Wednesday and $6.6M Thursday. Weekend looks like 

 

Fri- $10.72M (+62%)

Sat- $17.76M (+65%)

Sun- $11.77M (-33%)

 

Wknd 4- $40.2M ($511.5M cume)

 

[Arcadius]

This performance really just proves we have put way too much into opening weekend numbers (not that this ever had a weak opening). But the fact that in less than a month it’s already outgrossed domestically films that made a lot more in their opening weekend. 

[Zoe_]

Never doubt King Cameron. There were many who wanted the film to flop.

[Blade Runner]

7 hours ago, fridayteenage said:

tom cruise sinking, we love to see it

 

[Zerocoke]

8 hours ago, Arcadius said:

This performance really just proves we have put way too much into opening weekend numbers (not that this ever had a weak opening). But the fact that in less than a month it’s already outgrossed domestically films that made a lot more in their opening weekend. 

Well that’s how box office works usually, particularly for fan driven behemoths and franchises. But other lesser movies too, in general. There are few movies with lesser openings that go on to become smashes. In that regard, Cameron is in his own league in a game he created himself, and the fact he is managing to do it for a 3rd time in a row (Titanic, Avatar, now TWOW) is just nuts.

[Zerocoke]

8 hours ago, BNF91 said:

It's fine. Still high 30's/chance for $40M or more. It will start to play more like a weekend film as the runtime is a big factor. It was already having better weekend jumps than Rogue One so expect the same. Still $40M believer this wknd. 

 

Like I said yesterday, Canada's discount Tuesdays helped it overindex and pump up the Tuesday number. This is an expected Wednesday drop

Sounds about right. Considering its performance so far, I fail to see how TWOW drops more than 40% next weekend, so $40M should be the floor in my mind. If it does less than that I’ll just be very confused as to what this run is 😂. I see a lot of people expecting 30-38M, which would be amazing for any blockbuster, but not TWOW considering how it’s been performing so far.

 

Had xmas eve and new yorks eve fallen on a weekday, weekend 2 would’ve been +$70M and weekend 3 +$75M. Right? In what world does this fall +40% suddenly? It’s already a significant anomaly, and perhaps I just want it to continue being a huge anomaly and follow Avatar’s path, but I do have trouble understanding why everyone is so convinced that it’s impossible for it to come close to Avatar’s 4th weekend, when it managed to match its 3rd weekend despite NY’s eve falling on a Saturday.

 

I need answers. I need Friday’s numbers already 

[Bloodflowers.]

The fact there are Meghan stans who think that movie will outgross GODvatar this weekend, we had a good laugh

 

 

[Anye]

Biggest movie of 2022 

 

 

[BNF91]

Coming in a bit better at $7.25M Wednesday. Good. $465M domestic.

 

OS just won't stop. $27M Wednesday. $1.052B overseas. 

 

$1.517B global. Zooms past Top Gun as the #1 film of 2022.

Edited January 5, 2023 by BNF91

[tootight49]

1 hour ago, BNF91 said:

Coming in a bit better at $7.25M Wednesday. Good. $465M domestic.

 

OS just won't stop. $27M Wednesday. $1.052B overseas. 

 

$1.517B global. Zooms past Top Gun as the #1 film of 2022.

Is that good or above expectations? Double digit would be unheard of for a Wednesday. 

[BNF91]

10 minutes ago, tootight49 said:

Is that good or above expectations? Double digit would be unheard of for a Wednesday. 

I mean, not even Endgame, Infinity War, TFA were doing it like this. It's doing $35-40M daily, in January, after having burnt off $1.5B in demand over the lucrative holidays period. It's the end of week 3 and it's still doing OS dailies that most blockbusters manage/dream of in their 1st week. It's already made $96M OS since Monday, with Thursdays number still to count for the weekdays.. $115-120M 3rd OS weekdays. Completely bonkers. 

 

Most huge films are happy with even one weekend north of $100M OS. Avatar is now aiming for it's 4th and should do it handily. Even after already grossing over a billion OS. The only other film to do it like this was... The first Avatar lmao. 

 

Domestic is looking like the 4/5th biggest 3rd Wednesday ever. The only one not on a holiday too. #1-3 were all right in the middle of Xmas holiday so very inflated. 

 

It's nothing but good. Even if it doesn't manage $40M domestic this weekend, a $35-38M weekend would be an insanely good hold post holiday weekend. Totally above the average. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by BNF91

[Monster Megamind]

10 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

I mean, not even Endgame, Infinity War, TFA were doing it like this. It's doing $35-40M daily, in January, after having burnt off $1.5B in demand over the lucrative holidays period. It's the end of week 3 and it's still doing OS dailies that most blockbusters manage/dream of in their 1st week. It's already made $96M OS since Monday, with Thursdays number still to count for the weekdays.. $115-120M 3rd OS weekdays. Completely bonkers. 

 

Most huge films are happy with even one weekend north of $100M OS. Avatar is now aiming for it's 4th and should do it handily. Even after already grossing over a billion OS. The only other film to do it like this was... The first Avatar lmao. 

 

Domestic is looking like the 4/5th biggest 3rd Wednesday ever. The only one not on a holiday too. #1-3 were all right in the middle of Xmas holiday so very inflated. 

 

It's nothing but good. Even if it doesn't manage $40M domestic this weekend, a $35-38M weekend would be an insanely good hold post holiday weekend. Totally above the average. 

What are your predictions for domestic final collections 

[Bloodflowers.]

If this wins Best Picture at the Oscars, I expect a huge boost

[Bloodflowers.]

1 minute ago, BadMonster said:

won't it be on streaming by then?

 

They better delay it

 

[BNF91]

1 hour ago, Monster Megamind said:

What are your predictions for domestic final collections 

If it goes for $35-38M, $630-650M finish.

 

If it goes $40M+, $670-700M+ finish.

Edited January 5, 2023 by BNF91

[BNF91]

23 minutes ago, BadMonster said:

won't it be on streaming by then?

It should still be making like $3-4M that weekend. They'll keep it in theatres until May. 

[tootight49]

23 minutes ago, Bloodflowers. said:

If this wins Best Picture at the Oscars, I expect a huge boost

They (Academy) would rather die than give Best Picture to Avatar. 

1) Seems they kinda hate JC - he has some weird reputation 

2) Movie is too motion capture and CGI for them 

3) They’d prefer to give a boost to smaller pics like Fablemans or Everything everywhere all at once

4) Too successful. No top grossing film has won Best Picture since Lord of the Rings

 

Has a shot at Best Director but even then the same issues above. 

[supertiffany]

will this be the highest grossing film of 2020's?

[Bloodflowers.]

9 minutes ago, supertiffany said:

will this be the highest grossing film of 2020's?

 

Yes, don't know until 2029 since that's a long way to go

 

[BNF91]

Estimate increase again for Wednesday- $7.4M domestic. Setting itself up quite well for $40M+ this wknd. If Thursday can drop less than 8% it's a lock. 

 

Also, officially in the top 10 highest grossing films of all-time. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by BNF91

[tootight49]

Thursday? Will Megan previews slay Avatar?

[johnzy13]

1 hour ago, supertiffany said:

will this be the highest grossing film of 2020's?

Until Avatar 3,4 and 5. 

[BNF91]

6 minutes ago, tootight49 said:

Thursday? Will Megan previews slay Avatar?

$2.5M, maybe breakout with $3M. Total counter programming to Avatar, no effect at all. Hoping for $6.7/6.8M Thurs for A2. 

[tootight49]

22 minutes ago, BNF91 said:

$2.5M, maybe breakout with $3M. Total counter programming to Avatar, no effect at all. Hoping for $6.7/6.8M Thurs for A2. 

Ugh, please be 7m. Hate those close calls lol 

[BNF91]

Super early Thursday.. looking like $7M