Vermillion Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 This article seems to be more useful now more than ever with Mayra Flores' win, regardless of her district soon being redrawn. I'll probably be reposting it soon too.
ClashAndBurn Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Espresso said: The Republican primary will come down to Trump or DeSantis, even with Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo's posturing. Either Trump or DeSantis will annihilate Kamala or Pete if Biden decides not to run, dies, or gets Alzheimers/dementia. The hypothetical of either Trump or DeSantis not making it to the nomination isn't worth the energy to debate, imho. But, if folks here want to insist that we do, black turnout in cities in states in the Upper Midwest (which is all elections come down to) is drastically overhyped for Kamala and would be non-existent for Pete (and not due to the default stereotype of homophobia within the black community either as several black gay pundits have pointed out) and blue-collar whites will value cultural resentment over their economic well-being when given a choice, every time (that's borne out by the polling and long-term studies from PRRI). Josh Hawley would easily win over Biden, Kamala, or Pete, no contest. It's pretty fascism the white wine moms would fall for. Mike Pompeo may lose against a more cogent Biden but would win against Kamala or Pete, and not just because he's a white guy. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz are the wild-cards here I have a hard time picturing winning the primary in 2024 for their gross personalities. 2028 would be a different story. Then of course there's the Bernie wild-card which if Biden drops out folks here swear is the only person that could win when we're all aware of the oppo-dumps the Rethugs would unleash but we don't know the impact it'd have on the existing electorate, which may be cancelled out by increasing turn-out from low turn-out voters but that theory hasn't been tested enough to even see if it'd work. Bernie certainly has a better shot with the Upper Midwest than the majority the Dems have to offer if Biden drops out, but the DNC won't let him get the nom - they'll give it to either Kamala or Pete, both of whom will lose handily. Even if Bernie were to somehow luck out and receive the nomination, the Democrats will have so thoroughly damaged his electability by oppo-dumping on him that he wouldn’t win the general. I’ve come to terms with that fact a long time ago. A substantial number of Democrats would also be willing to go the Kurt Schrader route and endorse Jo Jorgensen or someone like that instead, if not directly support Trump or DeSantis. Pete would lose Georgia due to homophobia at least. The highly conservative Southern Baptist black population here wouldn’t tolerate him being the nominee at all. I think he loses the Midwest black population due to similar factors that sank Hillary. Lack of enthusiasm for neoliberal policies, Pete’s support of gentrification in South Bend pricing out black families from their neighborhoods, and the incident where South Bend police killed Eric Logan are each individually disqualifying.
Vermillion Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 @ClashAndBurn The Walker situation is so ****ed up on so many levels. Like, I'm unreasonably angry about it.
ClashAndBurn Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Espresso said: @ClashAndBurn The Walker situation is so ****ed up on so many levels. Like, I'm unreasonably angry about it. I’m really not liking the possibility of being represented by this bozo. That’s why Warnock already has my vote on lock. Stacey? I mean, she’s on track to lose by a pretty wide margin, and Kemp is above water in approvals, so honestly whether I vote for her or not really just doesn’t matter. Kemp is as Trumpy as a Republican can be, yet him not going along with Stop The Steal basically means he can get away with supporting every single one of the policies without the political toxicity of being labeled as MAGA. 46 minutes ago, Espresso said: Useless Biden pretty clearly doesn’t want to exercise any of his authority. The fact that even Trump used the Defense Production Act to advance production of PPE, yet Biden won’t do the same for gas refineries because “that would be communism” and markets would be scared by him making moves towards nationalizing oil and gas production.
Antonini Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 I LOVE that Rick Caruso spent all that money only to still come SECOND to Karen Bass ??? I know the people here are tired of idiotic Dem leadership but we’re not that stupid (yet) to prefer a REPUBLICAN lead the city ??? Also I know it’s all doom and gloom here but I have this weird feeling that Dems will keep the house by like ONE seat. Every district seems to be locked in due to redistricting. And inflation IS the biggest issue rn but seeing the MAGA crazies blame Joe Biden makes the other country club republicans…not believe it’s Biden’s fault. Wild! ? Also, it’s going to be interesting to see how much pull Elon has in swaying votes. His supporters are loud but they’re like…niche. And they live in big urban centers where their votes get drowned out by reliable Dem voters ???? Im sure everyone here is gonna come and clown my comments but I don’t think it’ll be the slaughter everyone is predicting. But I’m prepared for that outcome as well. A huge misstep for GOP IMO is this massive hate campaign on the gays and the looming abortion decision. It’s all too sudden it’s creeping people out.
That Bad Eartha Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, Antonini said: I LOVE that Rick Caruso spent all that money only to still come SECOND to Karen Bass ??? I know the people here are tired of idiotic Dem leadership but we’re not that stupid (yet) to prefer a REPUBLICAN lead the city ??? Also I know it’s all doom and gloom here but I have this weird feeling that Dems will keep the house by like ONE seat. Every district seems to be locked in due to redistricting. And inflation IS the biggest issue rn but seeing the MAGA crazies blame Joe Biden makes the other country club republicans…not believe it’s Biden’s fault. Wild! ? Also, it’s going to be interesting to see how much pull Elon has in swaying votes. His supporters are loud but they’re like…niche. And they live in big urban centers where their votes get drowned out by reliable Dem voters ???? Im sure everyone here is gonna come and clown my comments but I don’t think it’ll be the slaughter everyone is predicting. But I’m prepared for that outcome as well. A huge misstep for GOP IMO is this massive hate campaign on the gays and the looming abortion decision. It’s all too sudden it’s creeping people out. I think we'll definitely lose the house. Almost no foreseeable way we hold it. I think there is a small possibility it won't be the massive red wave Obama got only because of political polarization. But I think expecting us to hold the house is a pipe dream completely divorced from reality.
ClashAndBurn Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 Our Congress (which Democrats control both houses of) is so so so broken.
rihannabiggestfan Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 When Bernie said "Congress is supposed to be serving the American people, not serving corporations and special interest lobbyists", he made points
ClashAndBurn Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, rihannabiggestfan said: When Bernie said "Congress is supposed to be serving the American people, not serving corporations and special interest lobbyists", he made points The Senate voted unanimously for SCOTUS Justices to have beefed up security though. So Bernie did in fact vote for this (as did Warren)
rihannabiggestfan Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ClashAndBurn said: The Senate voted unanimously for SCOTUS Justices to have beefed up security though. So Bernie did in fact vote for this (as did Warren) Plus the excessive money to Ukraine when Americans need it, no wonder we call Bernie "the compromise candidate"
TheMusicProphet Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Espresso said: Useless I have to live knowing I voted for this man.
Kylizzle Posted June 15, 2022 Posted June 15, 2022 1 hour ago, TheMusicProphet said: I have to live knowing I voted for this man. This
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