news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[GhostBox]

2 minutes ago, Communion said:

That's- again- the point. No one is blaming voters. There's no hypcrosises here. 

 

Conservarive black grandpas and grandmas can do what they want. I actually don't want their votes cause I don't want to pander to conservatives whose votes I don't respect. 

 

I want the DNC to stop rigging primaries by giving this subset minority population undue influence greater than they represent by letting their R+20 state cut the line. 

They should just have all states vote the same day. No caucuses. Everyone votes. 
then we won't have these arguments anymore. 

[GhostBox]

 

[ClashAndBurn]

14 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

They should just have all states vote the same day. No caucuses. Everyone votes. 
then we won't have these arguments anymore. 

The entire reason that a primary "schedule" exists in the form we have today is so that candidates can campaign to smaller, more intimate states and make themselves known there so that those first states can set an example for the rest of the country to follow.

 

That's why it'll never change.

[Lil Mistee]

2 hours ago, Communion said:

Again, this is ragebait. 

 

Polling shows Bernie would have won a general election. 

 

So we're not talking about actual elections. We're talking about primaries with far more administrative bloat in its processes. The DNC admitted in 2016 that primaries are not real elections. Imagine if general presidential elections were staggered across months and Trump said that all red states get to votr first lmao. 

 

Further evidence - You can't rig a general election. You sure can rig a primary election though. 

 

And thus the discussion that's actually at the crux of this is not about listening to black voters. Of course progressives should and Sanders 2020 was an example of the success of progressives winning young black voters. The conversation is about centrist Dems doing what they can to rig primary elections by placing conservative states first and the need to combat this rigging. 

 

We know this is true because the much blacker state of Georgia didn't even get to vote in the 2020 primaries until June, effectively rendering their votes null and void. Why are black voters in South Carolina more special than black voters in Georgia? Are black voters South Carolina somehow more truly black than black Georgians in your argument?

 

Some of you are so clearly polarized by petty online drama that you become unable to hide the reactionary liberal within that you think a geriatric conservative is some astute voice defining the Democratic Party if they're a certain skin color. 

Y'all still believe polls? Chiiiile

[ClashAndBurn]

52 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said:

Y'all still believe polls? Chiiiile

I remember libs on here accusing pollsters of overcorrecting their results to account for "the Trump Effect," when if anything, they oversold Kamala's ability to win and gave everyone here unmerited hopium.

 

In 2016 and 2020 though, the polls were pretty accurate and described how the election would go. Hillary Clinton DID win the popular vote, and she lost the swing states that polling showed her as being in the margin of error in.

 

2024 was the biggest miss so far, but that's because it showed the election as a 50/50 that could go either way. When, in reality, Kamala had no path to winning (which Joe Biden's failure of a presidency made absolute sure of), and she lost every single swing state pretty handily. She was an unelectable loser in 2020, 2024, and will remain one in 2028 when she gets nominated by the exact same voters that gave us Dementia Joe.

[GhostBox]

 

[Blankspace2010]

2 hours ago, GhostBox said:

This is funny coming from Beto. Literally has failed at everything he's done in the past few elections and is probably gonna screw up the Dems chance in TX again 💀

 

Except what has that got to do with the fact that he is 100% correct and accurate in what he's saying. Betos past failures don't invalidate his extremely valid factual observation. I thought we rehabilitated you sis - let's not go back to the blindly kissing Joes ass - thank you. Your country is spiralling into an authoritarian dictatorship because of Joe. Time to cut the bullshit and start demanding accountability for the dems failure in winning the easiest election possible …. 2024 could have been a landslide but it wasn't because of the democrats mess. Beto is right, an open primary would have set the stage for a democratic landslide. 

[Blankspace2010]

39 minutes ago, ClashAndBurn said:

I remember libs on here accusing pollsters of overcorrecting their results to account for "the Trump Effect," when if anything, they oversold Kamala's ability to win and gave everyone here unmerited hopium.

 

In 2016 and 2020 though, the polls were pretty accurate and described how the election would go. Hillary Clinton DID win the popular vote, and she lost the swing states that polling showed her as being in the margin of error in.

 

2024 was the biggest miss so far, but that's because it showed the election as a 50/50 that could go either way. When, in reality, Kamala had no path to winning (which Joe Biden's failure of a presidency made absolute sure of), and she lost every single swing state pretty handily. She was an unelectable loser in 2020, 2024, and will remain one in 2028 when she gets nominated by the exact same voters that gave us Dementia Joe.

Yup - the polls called it. Trump won and they told us he would. 

[dabunique]

 

[Vermillion]

I'd say it was refreshing if not for the fact that literal green card holders can't be found in their prisons the lawyers were tracking to bring back in the first place  

[Vermillion]

I'm so exhausted with the polling conversations.

 

We have an Electoral College in this country and national polls have meant and continue to mean jack ****. 
 

The swing states will continue to be in the margin of error until 2032 when NIMBY's in NY and CA screw us over with population transfers to FL and TX causing new representation in states that won't budge purple.

[dabunique]

 

[Bloo]

1 hour ago, ClashAndBurn said:

I remember libs on here accusing pollsters of overcorrecting their results to account for "the Trump Effect," when if anything, they oversold Kamala's ability to win and gave everyone here unmerited hopium.

 

In 2016 and 2020 though, the polls were pretty accurate and described how the election would go. Hillary Clinton DID win the popular vote, and she lost the swing states that polling showed her as being in the margin of error in.

 

2024 was the biggest miss so far, but that's because it showed the election as a 50/50 that could go either way. When, in reality, Kamala had no path to winning (which Joe Biden's failure of a presidency made absolute sure of), and she lost every single swing state pretty handily. She was an unelectable loser in 2020, 2024, and will remain one in 2028 when she gets nominated by the exact same voters that gave us Dementia Joe.

I slightly disagree with some of your breakdown. I think the year polls were the most off was 2020. Biden won, yes, but it was by a much smaller margin than the polls suggested. But, that makes sense since electoral turnout was very unique that year due to COVID. 2016 was actually very accurate and it's frustrating people still haven't internalized that basic fact. 2024 was reasonably spot-on. Trump always had the general lead in the polls and even a lot of the electoral predictive models suggested Trump was likely to win the popular vote (which I personally couldn't believe until it happened). 

 

There was a lot of talk of "reports" of Kamala having "momentum and energy" at her rallies, but that's never backed by data and the data always leaned in Trump's favor. It should have surprised no one that he won.

[Bloo]

3 hours ago, GhostBox said:

They should just have all states vote the same day. No caucuses. Everyone votes. 
then we won't have these arguments anymore. 

Nah, I think it's fine stagger the contests. That allows new voices an opportunity to rise as weaker candidates underperform and drop out. But, there should be reforms to the primary. I think having fixed batches of states that are more uniformly distributed would be great (rather than 4 weeks of 1 state at a time and then Super Tuesday). I also think mixing up the sequence of states would be preferable as well.

[Lil Mistee]

1 hour ago, ClashAndBurn said:

I remember libs on here accusing pollsters of overcorrecting their results to account for "the Trump Effect," when if anything, they oversold Kamala's ability to win and gave everyone here unmerited hopium.

 

In 2016 and 2020 though, the polls were pretty accurate and described how the election would go. Hillary Clinton DID win the popular vote, and she lost the swing states that polling showed her as being in the margin of error in.

 

2024 was the biggest miss so far, but that's because it showed the election as a 50/50 that could go either way. When, in reality, Kamala had no path to winning (which Joe Biden's failure of a presidency made absolute sure of), and she lost every single swing state pretty handily. She was an unelectable loser in 2020, 2024, and will remain one in 2028 when she gets nominated by the exact same voters that gave us Dementia Joe.

I know I was joking hehe 

[GhostBox]

 

[Mr. Mendes]

Round and round and round in circles. Same conversations over and over again. Always about the past, and startlingly never about the present. 

 

Yea the Dems ****** up bad. Kamala ****** up bad. We know, we get it. But that's over and done now. How about we take all this energy and start applying it to the administration currently in office doing a whole lot of **** with very little pushback from the crowd who supposedly believes in holding politicians accountable and never getting off their necks. 

 

Where are all the protests and think pieces and demonstrations now that you've got someone in office committing very naked and visible evils? Why was that all reserved for solely for Biden (who deserved it mind you, that I don't argue) and it's crickets now that Trump's in office? 

 

Where are all of you all on Trump's neck? You're still talking about a loser candidate who lost 6 months ago. Kamala Harris is done and dusted. Please god start throwing your attention toward what's going on right in front of you. 

 

It's getting progressively difficult to take some of you all seriously when you keep rehasing the same arguments from half a year ago then suddenly go silent when it's time to talk about what our current President is doing right now. 

[GraceRandolph]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Mendes said:

Round and round and round in circles. Same conversations over and over again. Always about the past, and startlingly never about the present. 

 

Yea the Dems ****** up bad. Kamala ****** up bad. We know, we get it. But that's over and done now. How about we take all this energy and start applying it to the administration currently in office doing a whole lot of **** with very little pushback from the crowd who supposedly believes in holding politicians accountable and never getting off their necks. 

 

Where are all the protests and think pieces and demonstrations now that you've got someone in office committing very naked and visible evils? Why was that all reserved for solely for Biden (who deserved it mind you, that I don't argue) and it's crickets now that Trump's in office? 

 

Where are all of you all on Trump's neck? You're still talking about a loser candidate who lost 6 months ago. Kamala Harris is done and dusted. Please god start throwing your attention toward what's going on right in front of you. 

 

It's getting progressively difficult to take some of you all seriously when you keep rehasing the same arguments from half a year ago then suddenly go silent when it's time to talk about what our current President is doing right now. 

Our movement is criticizing Trump, but we need an actual vision to compete with his authoritarianism. The Democratic Party is more unpopular than ever and we have to strategize. 

[Mr. Mendes]

Just now, GraceRandolph said:

Our movement is criticizing Trump, but we need an actual vision to compete with his authoritarianism. The Democratic Party is more unpopular than ever and we have to strategize. 

But nobody is strategizing. Recycling the same talking points about why Kamala failed is not strategy. We know why she failed. 

 

Saying what politicians "should do" is also not strategizing. "Should do" is not a plan. It's theory and ideas, with no suggestions of how to make it actionable. 

 

And meanwhile, while everyone sits around theorizing and spitballing, the Trump admin is being given an open road to do whatever with next to no resistance. There was a wonderful sense of commitment and a very clear goal when it came to pushing against the Biden admin's many blunders. 

 

But now that's just..gone. Trump is facing almost nome of that same energy. There is no commitment, there is no goal. It's just people talking in circles and pointing out the same things that we have all known for months now. 

 

What and who does that help? 

[Redstreak]

32 minutes ago, Mr. Mendes said:

Round and round and round in circles. Same conversations over and over again. Always about the past, and startlingly never about the present. 

 

Yea the Dems ****** up bad. Kamala ****** up bad. We know, we get it. But that's over and done now. How about we take all this energy and start applying it to the administration currently in office doing a whole lot of **** with very little pushback from the crowd who supposedly believes in holding politicians accountable and never getting off their necks. 

 

Where are all the protests and think pieces and demonstrations now that you've got someone in office committing very naked and visible evils? Why was that all reserved for solely for Biden (who deserved it mind you, that I don't argue) and it's crickets now that Trump's in office? 

 

Where are all of you all on Trump's neck? You're still talking about a loser candidate who lost 6 months ago. Kamala Harris is done and dusted. Please god start throwing your attention toward what's going on right in front of you. 

 

It's getting progressively difficult to take some of you all seriously when you keep rehasing the same arguments from half a year ago then suddenly go silent when it's time to talk about what our current President is doing right now. 

You can't really say it's done and over with if they still plan to behave in 2028 like they have since the 90's with third way neoliberalism. These discussions keep being brought up because so far they haven't shown that the party at large has actually learned from their mistakes

Edited Friday at 09:16 PM by Redstreak

[spree]

22 minutes ago, Mr. Mendes said:

But nobody is strategizing. Recycling the same talking points about why Kamala failed is not strategy. We know why she failed. 

 

Saying what politicians "should do" is also not strategizing. "Should do" is not a plan. It's theory and ideas, with no suggestions of how to make it actionable. 

 

And meanwhile, while everyone sits around theorizing and spitballing, the Trump admin is being given an open road to do whatever with next to no resistance. There was a wonderful sense of commitment and a very clear goal when it came to pushing against the Biden admin's many blunders. 

 

But now that's just..gone. Trump is facing almost nome of that same energy. There is no commitment, there is no goal. It's just people talking in circles and pointing out the same things that we have all known for months now. 

 

What and who does that help? 

I think people are afraid what could happen to them if they retaliate. Look at what is happening to judges and mayor's.  There was no fear of that with Biden. 

[Vermillion]

The Democratic Party has a vastly different project every election cycle than the Republicans by virtue of the systems we still have in place in friction with the demographics we have to turn out and unite.

 

Kamala said she'd fight for peace in Israel and a ton of people didn't believe her or wanted a full weapons embargo.

 

Kamala gave proposals on small-business loans that became entirely overshadowed by her brother-in-law hire from Uber when countless corporations aren't paying any taxes through loopholes.

 

The problem is enough of the base didn't believe anything she had to say. Nor should they have. They're also tired of incrementalism.

 

For cultural reasons, AOC will lose and the DNC isn't budging from it's budgeting infrastructure approach, exemplified by Hakeem's pathetic apology tour in Silicon Valley.

 

The inherent disconnects I've mentioned are a fraction of the entirety of the problem.

 

The party needs to stop capitulating in its entirety to black voters over 45 because as we've seen, it's now not enough to pull the Dems through in the Blue Wall which is how this election will be won, at least until the new Census when NIMBY's in blue states make the Dems a permanent minority.

 

I would say to start with a bench of talent, except Ossoff is going to lose handily in Georgia as I've predicted for over a year. Beshear is the new absurdly overhyped Beto, running entirely on the goodwill given to his father. I'm mixed on Whitmer at this point after the binder hiding debacle.

 

Wes Moore's a pretty face that isn't going to respond well at all to the primary policy woodchipper if the interviews I've seen are any indication. Pritzker and Newsom are DOA.

[Vermillion]

Kamala lost because of global Covid incumbency turn-over, no meaningful separation from Biden, a perceived unjust coronation, a policy portfolio contradicted by her actions and statements, Israel, and being a black woman.

 

In that order, biggest reasoning starting first.

[ClashAndBurn]

1 hour ago, Bloo said:

I slightly disagree with some of your breakdown. I think the year polls were the most off was 2020. Biden won, yes, but it was by a much smaller margin than the polls suggested. But, that makes sense since electoral turnout was very unique that year due to COVID. 2016 was actually very accurate and it's frustrating people still haven't internalized that basic fact. 2024 was reasonably spot-on. Trump always had the general lead in the polls and even a lot of the electoral predictive models suggested Trump was likely to win the popular vote (which I personally couldn't believe until it happened). 

 

There was a lot of talk of "reports" of Kamala having "momentum and energy" at her rallies, but that's never backed by data and the data always leaned in Trump's favor. It should have surprised no one that he won.

Polls were saying Kamala was within reach of winning and had even a slight chance. She lost every swing state and by six digits in every single one except for Wisconsin and Michigan.

 

Ann Selzer disqualified herself from ever being taken seriously ever again with how far off her final poll was.

 

My point was that yes, the polls indicated Trump would win, but they didn't capture how comfortable and dominant that win would be. Or how throughly crushed and embarrassed Kamala would be.

 

And she's the likeliest to win the 2028 nomination, yet her unelectability problems that she's had since 2019 will not be going away, so we're going to be sleepwalking into disaster yet again.

[ClashAndBurn]

1 hour ago, Mr. Mendes said:

Round and round and round in circles. Same conversations over and over again. Always about the past, and startlingly never about the present. 

 

Yea the Dems ****** up bad. Kamala ****** up bad. We know, we get it. But that's over and done now. How about we take all this energy and start applying it to the administration currently in office doing a whole lot of **** with very little pushback from the crowd who supposedly believes in holding politicians accountable and never getting off their necks. 

 

Where are all the protests and think pieces and demonstrations now that you've got someone in office committing very naked and visible evils? Why was that all reserved for solely for Biden (who deserved it mind you, that I don't argue) and it's crickets now that Trump's in office? 

 

Where are all of you all on Trump's neck? You're still talking about a loser candidate who lost 6 months ago. Kamala Harris is done and dusted. Please god start throwing your attention toward what's going on right in front of you. 

 

It's getting progressively difficult to take some of you all seriously when you keep rehasing the same arguments from half a year ago then suddenly go silent when it's time to talk about what our current President is doing right now. 

Done and dusted? She's very likely to be the nominee again in three years. She's the most popular Democrat that has any public exposure, and has the most experience which has a very high level of importance among Democratic primary voters.

 

That is where the problem lies. Democrats fall in love with high-pedigree technocrats that can't win general elections. Obama won because Bush sank the opposition and made it impossible for them to win. Biden won because of Trump's Covid failures. Basically all accidents of history caused by Republicans' own self-inflicted damage.

 

The entire reason Biden's cognitive decline and cover-up is even being discussed right now is because there are players in the media who might be actively trying to disqualify Kamala and the rest of his cabinet (like Buttigieg) for either participating in the cover-up or for not removing him by invoking the 25th Amendment.