ChatshireCat Posted November 6 Posted November 6 7 minutes ago, Pikachoo said: SENATE RACES UPDATE: PA: Casey (D) trailing McCormick by 27k votes now. DecisionDesk still has Casey probability winning at 64%. NV: Rosen (D) trailing Brown by less than 4k votes. DecisionDesk has ROsen probability winning at 64% this could bring the senate to 48-52. With the help of moderate Republican senators like Susan Collins, the worst of Trump's bills will be difficult to pass. House: DecisionDesk has it at 221 R to 214 D. That's really not bad at all, considering at least 10 republicans voted to impeach Trump the second time. in other words, the worst of Trump's proposed bills will probably be shut down. It won't be a progressive utopia, but we will survive until the 2026 primaries. don't lose hope. Better than 2016 at least (54-46, 247-188)
John Slayne Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Ann Selzer being wrong by 16% why were people so excited about her poll 1
superglowy Posted November 6 Posted November 6 (edited) 5 minutes ago, suburbannature said: I will never wrap my head around the amount of straight, young men endlessly posting about grooming, trans agenda, and indoctrination just to vote for a man who was best friends with Epstein for ten years, is accused of sexual assault by 28 women and children, is an adjudicated sexual abuser, and is a convicted felon. Because they don't actually care about sexual abuse, they just hate Queer people. Edited November 6 by superglowy 2 1
secretgarden Posted November 6 Posted November 6 (edited) 5 minutes ago, suburbannature said: I will never wrap my head around the amount of straight, young men endlessly posting about grooming, trans agenda, and indoctrination just to vote for a man who was best friends with Epstein for ten years, is accused of sexual assault by 28 women and children, is an adjudicated sexual abuser, and is a convicted felon. Simple! They don't actually care about grooming/sexual assault. Especially when it's done by a straight white man. It's all for deluding themselves into why their bigotry against gay/trans people is deserved Edited November 6 by secretgarden 3 1
Pikachoo Posted November 6 Posted November 6 Just now, ChatshireCat said: Better than 2016 at least (54-46, 247-188) yup. Trump's going to start his second term in a weaker position than his first term. I'm reading on reddit that republicans could barely get anything done in 2017-2018 even with a much larger majority. their incompetence will be Our Saving Grace by Mariah Carey 3
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted November 7 ATRL Moderator Posted November 7 2 minutes ago, Blade Runner said: What do you mean by "Who's doing this?". Stop gaslighting. It is a thing. Usually the question of, "who is doing this," is specifically asking who outside of Twitter is saying this. Frankly, anything can be found on Twitter. So using it as a barometer for what a given movement feels in the real world is not fairly representative. 3
jakeisphat Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 hour ago, RW93 said: I do hope Kamala runs for Governor or something in the future, this can't be the end for her. This hits even more because all in all I found Kamala to be quite a likeable candidate. I can't see Kamala running for office again, tbh. The only reason I think she'd want to hold a seat that demoted her title is if she wanted to try running for president again, but after this, I can't see her wanting that. Part of the reason she even went for the nomination so quickly this time was because she knew a primary would be an uphill battle for her. She knew this was her only shot at the presidency and she took it. But I can see her starting an organization like Al Gore, or just retiring and doing speeches/college administration like Hillary. 2
Cruel Summer Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 minute ago, John Slayne said: Ann Selzer being wrong by 16% why were people so excited about her poll Well, because she's never been even remotely close to this far off. Her biggest polling miss in a major cycle's final poll was just 5% before this and she saw the warning signs of polls underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020 when nobody else really did. Even this is "normal" in a statistical sense - outlier polls do happen, and that's why their margins of error are in reality often 90% or 95% confidence intervals. What those actually mean is "we can be 90% certain that the real result of the race, given the result of this poll, lies within this many points of our result up or down." That 5% or 10% uncertainty does a lot of heavy lifting in cases like this, but it happens. 6
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted November 7 ATRL Moderator Posted November 7 4 minutes ago, John Slayne said: Ann Selzer being wrong by 16% why were people so excited about her poll Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug. I had never, in my life, had so many of my normie friends reach out to me about my thoughts on the Selzer poll, specifically, until this election. (Though, tbf, this is quite a miss for her. Misses are always possible, which is why you shouldn't too much into any one poll on its own. You need aggregates to say anything meaningful. But it is still shocking in hindsight that it was off as much as it was.)
CaptainMusic Posted November 7 Posted November 7 I'm just gonna check out of politics for the next few years. The global shift to the right is worrisome and the more I see/read the more depressing it is. From now on I'm just going to live in a leftist bubble surrounded by tolerance and tune out the idiots. 3 1
Bamboo Posted November 7 Posted November 7 (edited) 16 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: I don't listen to Bey's music heavily but 'Freedom' was one of my fav. songs from her and the perfect theme song for Harris's campaign. I can't even listen to it anymore now because there will be too much bad memories associated with that song after this devastating lost. It hit home even more hearing it play as she was walking out of her concession speech. It was watching America's freedom slowly leave from our grasps because we know what's to come. Me with Fight Song by Rachel Platten in 2016 Edited November 7 by Bamboo 4
americanlife Posted November 7 Posted November 7 3 minutes ago, Pikachoo said: yup. Trump's going to start his second term in a weaker position than his first term. I'm reading on reddit that republicans could barely get anything done in 2017-2018 even with a much larger majority. their incompetence will be Our Saving Grace by Mariah Carey Maybe he'll serve Biden and get nothing done (except for closing the border and packing the courts)
Chiidish Posted November 7 Posted November 7 14 minutes ago, CBC said: here is the real problem. lefties need to realise cheaper prices > human rights for basically 90% of voters, that's why ironically republicans end up being more progressive than dems. poc/trans people join them in spewing the same populist bs that people want to hear and the voters don't mind in having these "less desirable" people by their side because they understand strength comes from unity and numbers. the enemy of my enemy is my friends, meanwhile lefties spent their entire day blaming the latinos/the white men/the less educated... you're just as horrible of a person!! Leftists HAVE NOT been talking about identity politics this cycle. the warning bells have been about not highlighting progressive ECONOMIC polices which are overwhelmingly popular (health care, price gouging, students loans, housing). Also the war in Gaza is primarily a glaring foreign policy issue as Americans are largely anti-war (in their heads) and would rather money go to domestic policies. Same thing for immigration, the overwhelming majority of American hate "illegal immigrants" yet want a reasonable pathways to citizenship. So again the issue isn't progressivism it's the democrats going RIGHT and alienating the ENTIRE country instead of trying to appeal to the material interests of the American populace with the progressive policies they support. What Americans are clearly no longer supporting is half assed liberalism that tries to copy republicans and both sides bipartisanship their way into power while ignoring their base and taking specific segments of that base for granted. Progressive ECONOMIC policies directly address the ECONOMY. Leftists are NOT asking to campaign on identity politics, they are asking Dems to campaign on POLICIES that are universally popular that appeals to all segments of the population to STOP the hemorrhaging and low engagement. But sure blame the left, more further right, and lose again. 10
superglowy Posted November 7 Posted November 7 16 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: I don't listen to Bey's music heavily but 'Freedom' was one of my fav. songs from her and the perfect theme song for Harris's campaign. I can't even listen to it anymore now because there will be too much bad memories associated with that song after this devastating lost. It hit home even more hearing it play as she was walking out of her concession speech. It was watching America's freedom slowly leave from our grasps because we know what's to come. Maybe Beyoncé was right to withhold the Visuals all along, this electorate doesn't deserve them.
Blade Runner Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 minute ago, Bloo said: Usually the question of, "who is doing this," is specifically asking who outside of Twitter is saying this. Frankly, anything can be found on Twitter. So using it as a barometer for what a given movement feels in the real world is not fairly representative. K. If you don't listen to actual Venezuelans (and Cubans and Mexicans and Dominicans) about what they see, feel and live, this won't change. Supporting Trump as a Venezuelan also makes no sense because he has been talking endless amount of sh+t about us, but some people prefer to ignore that because the hate for the left and liberals in general is even bigger. Good luck. 1
XDNA Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 minute ago, CaptainMusic said: I'm just gonna check out of politics for the next few years. The global shift to the right is worrisome and the more I see/read the more depressing it is. From now on I'm just going to live in a leftist bubble surrounded by tolerance and tune out the idiots. I just hope blue states can reduce most of Trump's impact like last time. I worry he will do more to mess with us.
WildAmerican Posted November 7 Posted November 7 3 minutes ago, CaptainMusic said: I'm just gonna check out of politics for the next few years. The global shift to the right is worrisome and the more I see/read the more depressing it is. From now on I'm just going to live in a leftist bubble surrounded by tolerance and tune out the idiots. this is all we can do. we got one life to live, fill it with what makes you happy. all this is so futile.
John Slayne Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 minute ago, Cruel Summer said: Well, because she's never been even remotely close to this far off. Her biggest polling miss in a major cycle's final poll was just 5% before this and she saw the warning signs of polls underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020 when nobody else really did. Even this is "normal" in a statistical sense - outlier polls do happen, and that's why their margins of error are in reality often 90% or 95% confidence intervals. What those actually mean is "we can be 90% certain that the real result of the race, given the result of this poll, lies within this many points of our result up or down." That 5% or 10% uncertainty does a lot of heavy lifting in cases like this, but it happens. oh i understand all of that but i read so many essays on here and on twitter about how she's the best iowa pollster so being this far off is really bad for someone who has been in the business for so many years. the 'iowa polling queen' crown fell off her head HARD
Lightbringer007 Posted November 7 Posted November 7 16 minutes ago, Pikachoo said: SENATE RACES UPDATE: PA: Casey (D) trailing McCormick by 27k votes now. DecisionDesk still has Casey probability winning at 64%. NV: Rosen (D) trailing Brown by less than 4k votes. DecisionDesk has ROsen probability winning at 64% this could bring the senate to 48-52. With the help of moderate Republican senators like Susan Collins, the worst of Trump's bills will be difficult to pass. House: DecisionDesk has it at 221 R to 214 D. That's really not bad at all, considering at least 10 republicans voted to impeach Trump the second time. in other words, the worst of Trump's proposed bills will probably be shut down. It won't be a progressive utopia, but we will survive until the 2026 primaries. don't lose hope. thanks for some of the hopium
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted November 7 ATRL Moderator Posted November 7 1 minute ago, Blade Runner said: K. If you don't listen to actual Venezuelans (and Cubans and Mexicans and Dominicans) about what they see, feel and live, this won't change. Supporting Trump as a Venezuelan also makes no sense because he has been talking endless amount of sh+t about us, but some people prefer to ignore that because the hate for the left and liberals in general is even bigger. Good luck. Can you name a public Democratic politician that was saying the things you said? 1
Blade Runner Posted November 7 Posted November 7 1 minute ago, Bloo said: Can you name a public Democratic politician that was saying the things you said? My god.
Cruel Summer Posted November 7 Posted November 7 Just now, John Slayne said: oh i understand all of that but i read so many essays on here and on twitter about how she's the best iowa pollster so being this far off is really bad for someone who has been in the business for so many years. the 'iowa polling queen' crown fell off her head HARD Well, I can't totally argue with that. But I also won't lie - I'm kind of excited to see what she finds in her data, or see why she went so wrong, because it can teach us all a lot about polling and whether it's salvageable in the modern era. But yes, I expect this to effectively end her career, even if she's active for a few cycles yet and manages to nail the margins the rest of her professional life. 1
commander Posted November 7 Posted November 7 This election result made me seriously question the political affiliation of my favorite creators and streamers. Almost all of them are being vague or just awfully silent on the matter and I don't know what to think of them anymore. 2
Chiidish Posted November 7 Posted November 7 And the irony of unity…when the only people pushing leftists out are the liberal leaders within the Democratic Party who don't even TRY to work with progressives in a meaningful way. It always been the messaging and the candidates. Obama scammed his way into power by seeming progressive. The people that Trump stole were all former Bernie Bros. The signs are there. Up to Liberals to learn to put COUNTRY. before TRADITION AND PARTY. 7
ClashAndBurn Posted November 7 Posted November 7 Just now, Bloo said: Can you name a public Democratic politician that was saying the things you said? What he is telling you is that randos on Twitter have tainted liberal politicians beyond repair and the only thing that could have saved them would have been committing to overthrow Maduro in a violent coup.
Recommended Posts