ATRL Moderator khalyan Posted November 5 Author ATRL Moderator Posted November 5 Can someone explain what this means? Should I be happy?
Bamboo Posted November 5 Posted November 5 I think Kamala wins MI. Trump wins GA. NC is going to be weird. I think Trump would win it in a normal year but the governor's race makes this a very not normal year there. GA could go either way but I just feel the polls out of there have not been super high quality for us to find anything. It'll be up to turnout. 1
karron0624 Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 minute ago, khalyan said: Can someone explain what this means? Should I be happy? Blexas is currently on the map. We need to stop the count now! 1
Rotunda Posted November 5 Posted November 5 8 minutes ago, Rotunda said: The table groups precincts in Hays County, TX and Montgomery County, TX by how red or blue they were in 2022. They then compare what percentage of the early vote those precincts make up compared to what percentage of the Election Day vote those precincts make up. The redder precincts in these Texas counties seem to have come out more in force during early voting than Election Day voting so far, while the opposite is true for the bluer precincts. @khalyan
45seconds Posted November 5 Posted November 5 1 minute ago, Communion said: Please for the love of God just ignore someone if you don't like that they're expressing their frustration that the likely next president of the US has committed herself thus far to supporting a genocide. Literally nothing you can say on a pop forum on election day in defense of supporting genocide will increase Harris' chances of winning. Just cast your vote for her if you feel it is important to and give people who are suffering beyond electoral politics the space to air their fear that things likely won't get better *for them* after today. For the sake of your soul and getting to be a good person, nothing is improved by still hounding peopoe upset over genocide with over half of all ballots already cast. If you post in this forum, you're gonna get responded to. So either do it at your own risk or do it elsewhere. 6 4
FameFatale Posted November 5 Posted November 5 On right wing news this morning they were asking people their reasons for voting Trump and everyone said "open borders" like a parrot and then the host asked one person "Are you seeing a lot of issues with Biden's open borders here in your city?" and the man was like "Well, not really." 4
Communion Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Me figuring out how to explain to politically disengaged coworkers that somehow North Carolina could be in play because the Republican governor candidate is a black nazi who got exposed on an adult forum as wishing he could own slaves and thus Harris could take it due to depressed turnout, all because they think I'm "really into politics" and they wanna know "who's gonna take what". 1 4
Bamboo Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Just now, khalyan said: Can someone explain what this means? Should I be happy? The general thinking has been that election patterns will be opposite to 2020. In 2020 Republicans condemned early and mail in voting but Dems embraced it. This year Rs have had a really heavy focus on turning out a early and mail in votes, while Dems have kind of naturally gravitated back to in person Election Day voting. Based on this pattern, we have assumed Election Day will be better for Dems this year whereas in 2020 it seemed the early voting was so heavy D and EDay voting was so heavy R. This is why pundits have been saying that early voting patterns have been really hard to deduce anything from and basically tell us nothing because it's possible Rs cannibalize their votes on EDay by turning up early and having no one left to vote. But Dems will likely have a more even spread of early and EDay votes. Basically it means there is early evidence this theory could be true which would be good for Dems. But it is early. 1 1
karron0624 Posted November 5 Posted November 5 So do we start the 2026 thread after this election is over? 3
ATRL Moderator khalyan Posted November 5 Author ATRL Moderator Posted November 5 2 minutes ago, Rotunda said: @khalyan Oh thank you! I wasn’t understanding the precints part of that graph but I get it now.
Heldenzeit Posted November 5 Posted November 5 I'm so anxious. Really thinking about all of you US atrlers, I can only imagine how stressful it is for you in the next days. 4
Acuminatus Posted November 5 Posted November 5 (edited) While I don't think Blexas is happening, it has more chance than Blorida at least. Can't believe it is the state that swung to Bill Clinton, it feels like a solid red state now. The Dems will need to put in a lot of effort on the ground level to change up the state in the future. The Trump people have done a good job at bringing the Latinos into the fold there and doing the groundwork Edited November 5 by Acuminatus
Katamari Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Wait Marco Rubio looks botched hold awn when did that happen 2
ATRL Moderator khalyan Posted November 5 Author ATRL Moderator Posted November 5 2 minutes ago, Bamboo said: Basically it means there is early evidence this theory could be true which would be good for Dems. But it is early. I live in a very red part of Texas (like 72 Trump, 28 Biden) and the turnout on the first day of early voting was insane. The longest I’ve ever waited to vote before was like 20 minutes, and this year I waited over an hour. It could have been all the Republicans voting early according to the data.
Rotunda Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Trump turning Mar A Lago into the epicenter of Republican politics + the rise of DeSantis during Trump's reign has made me fully write off Florida as a state worth worth thinking about swinging. 4
hausofdave Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Keep an eye on Philly turnout. 500k in person votes today equals 2020 turnout. As of 10:30ish AM EST, they're already at ~262k https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/ 8 1
Slamless Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Good morning loves, how's everything looking so far? everybody please take good care of yourself it's gonna be a log day/night 1
ATRL Moderator khalyan Posted November 5 Author ATRL Moderator Posted November 5 2 minutes ago, Acuminatus said: While I don't think Blexas is happening, it has more chance than Blorida at least. Can't believe it is the state that swung to Bill Clinton, it feels like a solid red state now. Hillary only lost Florida by 1.2% too
woohoo Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Maybe Florida will go so red it offsets the electoral college bias in other states for us 5
gagacasanova Posted November 5 Posted November 5 (edited) I I I wanna go o o to the po o olls Spoiler Except I already voted Edited November 5 by gagacasanova 4
WildAmerican Posted November 5 Posted November 5 FL has been +10R in several high quality polls, it was always looking rough which is why no effort was placed there
Aden Posted November 5 Posted November 5 Just now, woohoo said: Maybe Florida will go so red it offsets the electoral college bias in other states for us I think this is how Ann Selzer's D+3 prediction happened. Republicans all moving to Florida, covid killing mainly Republicans, etc. may start to chip away Republican vote in key swing states and maybe even make red states playable in the near future.
Recommended Posts