Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) Y'all: "I'M SICK OF THESE POLLS! NO MORE POLLS! THEY DON'T MAKE SENSE!!" Me: "What if there was an aggregate of polling aggregates?? " Aggregate Date MI WI PA NV NC GA AZ Avg. 538 10/19/24 0.5 0 0.1 0.5 -0.9 -2 -2.1 -0.56 RCP 10/19/24 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1 -1.7 -1.8 -0.97 Silver 10/19/24 0.9 0.4 0.4 1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8 -0.19 VoteHub 10/19/24 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.26 State Avg. 0.08 0.23 0.13 0.18 -0.78 -1.50 -1.78 (Everyone dragging Silver to his model being.... the most hopeful? ) Edited October 19 by Communion 1
Sannie Posted October 19 Posted October 19 (edited) 5 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Something is happening in Detroit and I think I like it. He's obviously doing this because he fully believes Trump is going to win and nothing will happen to him. Considering his track record of being wrong about virtually everything, I'm OK with that. Edited October 19 by Sannie 6
Rotunda Posted October 19 Posted October 19 Boyfriend got a selfie with Kamala I got a few close up pics and am in the background of the selfie 7
ClashAndBurn Posted October 19 Posted October 19 As if it's even a difficult choice for her to make. Dead Palestinian children burning to death is an explicit PURPOSE of the bombs being sent to Israel by Joe Biden, and they will be continued without even the slightest hesitation after Kamala is inaugurated. But hey, at least liberals faced zero urgency to change course this entire time. The "we need to prevent a genocide at home" rhetoric served its purpose, to make sure we continued supporting a genocide abroad. 4 3
Relampago. Posted October 19 Posted October 19 It's JOEVER girls! HANG IT UP! Now that's that's done, do we all have a plan to vote? 2
woohoo Posted October 19 Posted October 19 23 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Was this a paid rally? There's like no one there. Is that a heavily populated area?
Sannie Posted October 19 Posted October 19 Kamala's rally in Atlanta tonight being her biggest ever. Peaking two months into her candidacy. Trump could never! 4
Communion Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 hour ago, Communion said: Y'all: "I'M SICK OF THESE POLLS! NO MORE POLLS! THEY DON'T MAKE SENSE!!" Me: "What if there was an aggregate of polling aggregates?? " Aggregate Date MI WI PA NV NC GA AZ Avg. 538 10/19/24 0.5 0 0.1 0.5 -0.9 -2 -2.1 -0.56 RCP 10/19/24 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1 -1.7 -1.8 -0.97 Silver 10/19/24 0.9 0.4 0.4 1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8 -0.19 VoteHub 10/19/24 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.26 State Avg. 0.08 0.23 0.13 0.18 -0.78 -1.50 -1.78 (Everyone dragging Silver to his model being.... the most hopeful? ) To ease some of y'all's doomering, maybe someone on her campaign actually does have a modicum of sense. But maybe not too much sense: Feels weird that Democrats think a *re-reads* Wyoming Republican is a meaningful figure to anyone in other states. This attempted mythologizing of such a political loser making me now curious how a little girl born to a war criminal in Wisconsin who also hates her lesbian sister ends up in Wyoming. 5 1
shelven Posted October 19 Posted October 19 1 hour ago, Communion said: Y'all: "I'M SICK OF THESE POLLS! NO MORE POLLS! THEY DON'T MAKE SENSE!!" Me: "What if there was an aggregate of polling aggregates?? " Aggregate Date MI WI PA NV NC GA AZ Avg. 538 10/19/24 0.5 0 0.1 0.5 -0.9 -2 -2.1 -0.56 RCP 10/19/24 -0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1 -1.7 -1.8 -0.97 Silver 10/19/24 0.9 0.4 0.4 1 -0.8 -1.4 -1.8 -0.19 VoteHub 10/19/24 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0 -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -0.26 State Avg. 0.08 0.23 0.13 0.18 -0.78 -1.50 -1.78 (Everyone dragging Silver to his model being.... the most hopeful? ) I mean I think it's fair at this point to believe both that: (1) people need to stop hyper-fixating on individual polls and trust the aggregates, and (2) there's been a drought of high-quality polling from reputable pollsters lately and none of the big polling aggregators seem to have fully figured out how to account for the zone flooding phenomenon that emerged in 2022 and seems to be continuing into this cycle. The polling aggregators are obviously going to be less susceptible to extreme error than individual polls are, but they still do rely on an assumption that at least some of the data being fed into them was prepared and released in good faith. Otherwise, it just becomes a garbage in, garbage out situation. Most importantly, though, I think everyone just needs to come to terms with the fact that... this is a very close race The data isn't going to magically show us who's going to win between now and election day because the race is simply too close for that. And a model that shows Trump with a 55% chance of winning isn't meaningfully any different than a model that shows Harris with a 55% chance of winning (unless you're gambling on the outcome nnn). 4 1
Communion Posted October 20 Posted October 20 7 minutes ago, shelven said: I mean I think it's fair at this point to believe both that: (1) people need to stop hyper-fixating on individual polls and trust the aggregates, and (2) there's been a drought of high-quality polling from reputable pollsters lately and none of the big polling aggregators seem to have fully figured out how to account for the zone flooding phenomenon that emerged in 2022 and seems to be continuing into this cycle. The polling aggregators are obviously going to be less susceptible to extreme error than individual polls are, but they still do rely on an assumption that at least some of the data being fed into them was prepared and released in good faith. Otherwise, it just becomes a garbage in, garbage out situation. Most importantly, though, I think everyone just needs to come to terms with the fact that... this is a very close race The data isn't going to magically show us who's going to win between now and election day because the race is simply too close for that. And a model that shows Trump with a 55% chance of winning isn't meaningfully any different than a model that shows Harris with a 55% chance of winning (unless you're gambling on the outcome nnn). Sis, I'm sure whatever you're saying is accurate, but I also likely have undiagnosed adult ADHD so I also just like putting the numbers in the cells and how it looks with the colors added. 8
karron0624 Posted October 20 Posted October 20 Daily reminder that, if you havent and you can, go vote. Dont care if its for Harris, Stein, etc., go make your voice heard!
Breathe On Moi Posted October 20 Posted October 20 12 minutes ago, karron0624 said: Daily reminder that, if you havent and you can, go vote. Dont care if its for Harris, Stein, etc., go make your voice heard! disclaimer: if you're voting for Trump, or Stein, please stay home!!! Spoiler 9 5
woohoo Posted October 20 Posted October 20 43 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Was this a paid rally? There's like no one there. Is that a heavily populated area? 1
Sannie Posted October 20 Posted October 20 29 minutes ago, shelven said: I mean I think it's fair at this point to believe both that: (1) people need to stop hyper-fixating on individual polls and trust the aggregates, and (2) there's been a drought of high-quality polling from reputable pollsters lately and none of the big polling aggregators seem to have fully figured out how to account for the zone flooding phenomenon that emerged in 2022 and seems to be continuing into this cycle. The polling aggregators are obviously going to be less susceptible to extreme error than individual polls are, but they still do rely on an assumption that at least some of the data being fed into them was prepared and released in good faith. Otherwise, it just becomes a garbage in, garbage out situation. Most importantly, though, I think everyone just needs to come to terms with the fact that... this is a very close race The data isn't going to magically show us who's going to win between now and election day because the race is simply too close for that. And a model that shows Trump with a 55% chance of winning isn't meaningfully any different than a model that shows Harris with a 55% chance of winning (unless you're gambling on the outcome nnn). Your words are far too nuanced for people with certain preconceived notions to understand. There are people in this thread who want Kamala to lose and for millions to suffer just so that they can say "I told you so". They are MAGA. 2 2
woohoo Posted October 20 Posted October 20 Honestly if trump promised to fix ATRLs problem with the threads jumping around and ad glitches I'd ALMOST vote for him. 5
i spit on haters Posted October 20 Posted October 20 4 minutes ago, Breathe On Moi said: disclaimer: if you're voting for Trump, or Stein, please stay home!!! Exactly. 2 7
i spit on haters Posted October 20 Posted October 20 6 minutes ago, Sannie said: Your words are far too nuanced for people with certain preconceived notions to understand. There are people in this thread who want Kamala to lose and for millions to suffer just so that they can say "I told you so". They are MAGA. No one here genuinely wants Harris to lose. I don't know why some of you act as though she can't be criticized by those who are still voting for this ticket. But if Harris loses, and I don't think she will, don't then turn around and blame Black men and Arabs, either. 7 1
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