Blade Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Non-dooming reminder: high quality MI polls have been lacking lately... 1
sciencemagic Posted October 18 Posted October 18 (edited) re: polling -- it's important to remind ourselves what the utility is of polling, and the message that polling sends. Other than the really big events (the debates, conventions), there aren't that many major events happening that might push someone to vote for one or the other. So polls coming out every 12 business hours... doesn't really tell us much. Someone pointed it out a few pages ago -- although we'd like to think the polls are getting a representative sample, it could just be the same population being polled again and again (ie: the people who answer unknown calls or respond to the automated texts). Yes the polls have grades but things are changing so much every few years re: social media, the spread of news, etc. so we don't really know how effective they are. Remember that MOST of the country is not as politically engaged as people on here -- they're not on Twitter following these accounts and journalists who are offering hourly updates of what's going on. Having new polls released that promise a tight race is good for the media (and perhaps good for turnout as well). I believe that Kamala will win largely due to Roe, and given the enthusiasm she's had at her rallies etc compared to him. She's been on a roll recently while he has been floundering. Remember he needs his base + a lot of otherwise apathetic/on the fence voters, and I don't think that's the case this time around. People have had enough time to figure out who they're voting for, they're fired up, and that's a good sign! Thanks to all the folks canvassing and getting people out there Edited October 18 by sciencemagic 13
Blade Posted October 18 Posted October 18 This "floundering" era Trump is experiencing needs to be perceived by apathetic and low propensity voters for it to make a dent. Like the user above said, the vast majority is not as politically engaged as we are. Are regular people seeing that Trump looks and sounds off recently? 1
JustHoran Posted October 18 Posted October 18 (edited) 2 hours ago, woohoo said: Has anyone else gone as dark as me and thought about life in a post constitutional America is you're not a straight white man? Like how do you plan on staying safe and avoiding the harsh realities if trump does everything he wants to do. I.E. turn the military on us, have to face the fact he's in office forever and then JD Vance. I'm just trying to mentally prepare because there's a 50/50 shot that's gonna be life this time next year I want so badly to say I'd move to Canada, but it's not that easy. I don't have the money and I wouldn't want to leave my family or nephew. It's terrifying to think about. If Trump does this, I feel like we would have a Civil War. We can not let this country become a dictatorship. I truly still believe she will win. Edited October 18 by JustHoran
parvatishallow Posted October 18 Posted October 18 56 minutes ago, Raspberries said: Oh they're gonna bankrupt her ugly ass This is not something they'd be saying if they felt strongly that Election Day is likely to go in their favor. She's an idiot but they wouldn't be getting conspiratorial this early for no reason. kamala currently eating 45 up with a very pro-union speech in MI right now.
sciencemagic Posted October 18 Posted October 18 2 minutes ago, Blade said: This "floundering" era Trump is experiencing needs to be perceived by apathetic and low propensity voters for it to make a dent. Like the user above said, the vast majority is not as politically engaged as we are. Are regular people seeing that Trump looks and sounds off recently? True -- though I do think Kamala's Fox interview (where she highlighted this and which seemed to do pretty well in the ratings) could be helpful for that. Does anyone know how well the two Latino-focused town halls did? I think that was a pretty clear dichotomy for the two candidates.
GhostBox Posted October 18 Posted October 18 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Blade said: Non-dooming reminder: high quality MI polls have been lacking lately... Stupid quinnipiac 🥊🥊🥊 Plus just older polls leaving the average. And most of those were for Harris Edited October 18 by GhostBox 1
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I think some of you really need to log out and stop poll watching for a week It did wonders for my mental health doing that. It's a toss up girls. Rat Sh*tver's model means nothing because it's a toss-up. Polls can't tell us anything because it's a toss-up. Logically, nothing has happened to make the race move in a meaningful way towards Trump. We already know there is a small amount of undecideds, so who is switching from Harris to Trump? It's far more likely we're seeing a form of herding where pollsters are trying to form a narrative where there is none besides this country is split in half, something we've known for years now. The reality is, no one knows anything and we should enjoy our peace of mind until November 5th. When we start seeing results we don't like, then we can doom. Until then, enjoy the ride. 3 4
spree Posted October 18 Posted October 18 9 minutes ago, JustHoran said: I want so badly to say I'd move to Canada, but it's not that easy. I don't have the money and I wouldn't want to leave my family or nephew. It's terrifying to think about. If Trump does this, I feel like we would have a Civil War. We can not let this country become a dictatorship. I truly still believe she will win. i'd be shocked if she didn't win also, but either outcome is going to result in violence. Especially if he loses. Get ready and be mentally prepared.
spree Posted October 18 Posted October 18 she is absolutely KILLING it in MI at the rally. Very, very impressed with her. 3
Vroom Vroom Posted October 18 Posted October 18 4 minutes ago, spree said: i'd be shocked if she didn't win also, but either outcome is going to result in violence. Especially if he loses. Get ready and be mentally prepared. Trump is not the incumbent and his base is less enthusiastic now than they were in 2020. Him losing now will not be as violent as Jan 6th
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 3 hours ago, woohoo said: Has anyone else gone as dark as me and thought about life in a post constitutional America is you're not a straight white man? Like how do you plan on staying safe and avoiding the harsh realities if trump does everything he wants to do. I.E. turn the military on us, have to face the fact he's in office forever and then JD Vance. I'm just trying to mentally prepare because there's a 50/50 shot that's gonna be life this time next year Mama..Take a breath. The worst thing that's going to come out of a Trump presidency is a 7-2 or 8-1 conservative Supreme Court and abortions remaining a state's issue. Maybe some other things, but for the most part it'll be par for the course. In addition, MAGAts will be empowered but they're always empowered no matter what happens (I almost feel like it got worse during Biden ). They won't start a dictatorship and they won't start gunning down people en masse. Need I remind people, Trump isn't exactly popular in his OWN party, people just latch onto him for power. We'll lose some years of progress and probably won't get much done, but the fact that Republicans couldn't even elect a majority house leader with ease says a lot about the in-fighting going on with their party as well. Not to mention, the level of social unrest these things would cause would basically be a green light for other countries to start making bigger moves like China moving in on Taiwan, Russia making bigger moves in Ukraine, etc. Trump can act like a dictator all he wants, and we can all pretend the SC is in his pocket unquestionably but the reality is that most of this is just dramatics meant to scare us into voting. I'm glad it seems to be working, but not at the cost of our mental health. Relax girl, win or lose, things are mostly going to be okay for now. If anything, Trump will be an unpopular president yet again and we'll just win in 2028 with another fun primary where hopefully someone more progressive than Harris takes over. 2 5
Vermillion Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Will Rick Scott have the Senate votes to drop the filibuster for an ACA elimination and national abortion ban? What do folks here think? Will they follow through if they do? 1
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I'd also like to add that I don't completely want to throw out the polls moving slightly to Trump, perhaps there is truth to that. But what I don't really agree with is people trying to compare this to 2016 where hindsight bias is: "SEE! The warning signs were THERE! We should have KNOWN!" I don't think Harris has ever had anywhere close to as big of a lead as Clinton did, and thus nowhere near as big of a fall. If she loses, it's not going to be because something happened in the last 3 weeks (unless we get a huge October surprise in the last stretch). It'll be because inflation ****ed us from the get go and there was not much that could be done about that. People will blame her immigration policy, people will blame her for Palestine, and people will blame her for not breaking with Biden, and all of these things could very much be the reason why she loses. But the reality is, we were always in that position and pollsters didn't suddenly wisen up at the end and crack the code. So acknowledge that polling is the best science we've got, but understand their guess is just as good as ours at this point.
GhostBox Posted October 18 Posted October 18 7 minutes ago, Raspberries said: So that would mean Dems are around half way to the half a million right now correct? seems doable seeing how strong the returns are atm. Of course that could change. 🤷
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