Acuminatus Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Hopefully all the MAGA bet on Trump winning and then he loses
Sannie Posted October 18 Posted October 18 19 minutes ago, nadiamendell said: Wait... Is this really what they think? I wouldn't put it past them but that's so funny. 18 minutes ago, shelven said: People said the same thing about places like Austin and Dallas in 2020. I'm obviously not saying enthusiasm in Detroit is a bad thing, but I'd just be careful about drawing too big of a conclusion based on one good sign in one big Dem-friendly city. We know essentially nothing about how the Detroit result might differ compared to 2020, whether this enthusiastic early voting is countered by equally or more enthusiastic election day voting, and whether Dem-unfriendly cities/areas will turn out to be just as enthusiastic in the long run. Come on, sis. We're talking about Michigan, not TX. People are and will continue to be delusional about TX. I don't think it's even remotely comparable. It doesn't guarantee a win, but it builds up a nice buffer going into ED. 1
shelven Posted October 18 Posted October 18 2 minutes ago, Sannie said: Come on, sis. We're talking about Michigan, not TX. People are and will continue to be delusional about TX. I don't think it's even remotely comparable. It doesn't guarantee a win, but it builds up a nice buffer going into ED. I'm not trying to draw a direct comparison between Texas and Michigan. It's just an example of how little early voting actually tells us other than in very specific circumstances like Nevada (and even with Nevada, Ralston's already started to suggest that his analysis might not be as reliable this cycle). Michigan isn't even a state that reports party registration data or demographic information about its early voters, so we're really in the dark there. And even if you accept that early voting shows signs of Democratic enthusiasm, we have no way of knowing yet whether that will be countered by Republican enthusiasm on election day or closer to it. Or if this early Democratic enthusiasm is actually just an early peak and their numbers will start looking worse soon. And for what it's worth, this cuts both ways too. Milwaukee has one of the lowest mail ballot return rates in Wisconsin so far, but I don't think that really means anything at this stage. A lot of this is borderline pseudoscience that people focus on to either try to comfort themselves or to feed their doomerism 1
Lil Mistee Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I still think PA and Michigan are going dem easily, im more concerned about WI, NC and GA 1
Tovitov Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Alot of Nikki Haley voters werent voting for her, they were just voting against Trump. She was just the last candidate standing. 1
Armani? Posted October 18 Posted October 18 29 minutes ago, shelven said: I'm not trying to draw a direct comparison between Texas and Michigan. It's just an example of how little early voting actually tells us other than in very specific circumstances like Nevada (and even with Nevada, Ralston's already started to suggest that his analysis might not be as reliable this cycle). Michigan isn't even a state that reports party registration data or demographic information about its early voters, so we're really in the dark there. And even if you accept that early voting shows signs of Democratic enthusiasm, we have no way of knowing yet whether that will be countered by Republican enthusiasm on election day or closer to it. Or if this early Democratic enthusiasm is actually just an early peak and their numbers will start looking worse soon. And for what it's worth, this cuts both ways too. Milwaukee has one of the lowest mail ballot return rates in Wisconsin so far, but I don't think that really means anything at this stage. A lot of this is borderline pseudoscience that people focus on to either try to comfort themselves or to feed their doomerism I mean, we don't need the party registration for Detroit tbh. The Democrat margins in the mid 90s there shouldn't be statistically possible yet
GhostBox Posted October 18 Posted October 18 13 minutes ago, Blade said: We're in hell Why does everything have to be so close all the time 😂
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Not that it matters much at this point, but Trump ads have completely disappeared in AZ. It's only Harris now. Billboards, YT ads, TV ads, etc. ALL of them are pro-Harris. And it's not just my algorithm, it's also my mom's when I go over and watch true crime YTers with her and my nana's TVLand and MeTV (old shows) ads as well. 6 2
Pikachoo Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I am just praying that these polls are underestimating Dems, like they did in 2022. this is too close for comfort 6
Bethenny Frankel Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I think Kamala wins PA, MI, GA and NV. That's enough right there. WI worries me and AZ is wayyyyyy too close for comfort.
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Pikachoo said: I am just praying that these polls are underestimating Dems, like they did in 2022. this is too close for comfort There's a much higher chance they're underestimating Harris vs. Trump, like the Republican weighting this time around is insane And Trump doesn't even have the incumbent advantage this time Edited October 18 by Relampago. 1
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-presidential-candidate-is-still-the-stock-markets-bet-to-win-the-election-4e0a1b76 More psuedo science but why not at this point?
Blade Posted October 18 Posted October 18 I've started dooming about Wisconsin now I really just hope the ground game is strong enough to pull through in a tight race that WI seems to be shaping up to be. 1
Ms. Togekiss Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Kamala going viral with that rally comment despite Elon's broken algorithm 1 1
Relampago. Posted October 18 Posted October 18 Has there been any word on the Selzer poll coming yet? I wouldn't panic about WI unless that poll looks rough, but the last one looked promising.
shelven Posted October 18 Posted October 18 5 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Has there been any word on the Selzer poll coming yet? I wouldn't panic about WI unless that poll looks rough, but the last one looked promising. It came on October 31st in 2020 and November 5th in 2016. So we probably shouldn't expect it until right before the election. 1
Blade Posted October 18 Posted October 18 8 minutes ago, Relampago. said: Has there been any word on the Selzer poll coming yet? I wouldn't panic about WI unless that poll looks rough, but the last one looked promising. 3 minutes ago, shelven said: It came on October 31st in 2020 and November 5th in 2016. So we probably shouldn't expect it until right before the election. I need the final NYT, Marquette (WI), and Selzer (IA) polls so badly
wastedpotential Posted October 18 Posted October 18 2 hours ago, shelven said: People said the same thing about places like Austin and Dallas in 2020. I'm obviously not saying enthusiasm in Detroit is a bad thing, but I'd just be careful about drawing too big of a conclusion based on one good sign in one big Dem-friendly city. We know essentially nothing about how the Detroit result might differ compared to 2020, whether this enthusiastic early voting is countered by equally or more enthusiastic election day voting, and whether Dem-unfriendly cities/areas will turn out to be just as enthusiastic in the long run. The thing that I'll be most curious to see is how this affects overall turnout figures. Are the higher rates of people early voting in Detroit indicative of increased turnout across the board (and will this trend be repeated in other places?), or are they the same likely voters who are just front-loading this year? While there's no guarantee, I do think it's pretty safe to assume that a majority of the EVs coming out of Detroit are for Harris. It'd be nice to have some sort of contrast with the rest of Wayne County to attempt to see the true impacts of the Dearborn/Hamtramck electorate, but I guess we'll have to wait until the day of for that 1
wastedpotential Posted October 18 Posted October 18 13 minutes ago, Blade said: I'm so scared I need to see the look on Ted Cruz's face when he loses SO desperately, and I don't want to wait for 2030 4
woohoo Posted October 18 Posted October 18 20 minutes ago, wastedpotential said: The thing that I'll be most curious to see is how this affects overall turnout figures. Are the higher rates of people early voting in Detroit indicative of increased turnout across the board (and will this trend be repeated in other places?), or are they the same likely voters who are just front-loading this year? While there's no guarantee, I do think it's pretty safe to assume that a majority of the EVs coming out of Detroit are for Harris. It'd be nice to have some sort of contrast with the rest of Wayne County to attempt to see the true impacts of the Dearborn/Hamtramck electorate, but I guess we'll have to wait until the day of for that We don't want front loaded from our pop girls and we don't want front loaded voters. We need longevity and hit after hit. Hit the lines girls like R9 is being released 2
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