Popular Post clee95 Posted October 14 Popular Post Posted October 14 (edited) Idc what anyone says. white women, please save us..lol Edited October 14 by clee95 16
hausofdave Posted October 14 Posted October 14 (edited) doubt the GOP would never intentionally release bad polling for Trump, even for money, b/c Trump's entire deal is he needs to maintain the narrative that he's winning and it will be stolen from him. Internal polling with him losing is directly the anthesis of his strategy Edited October 14 by hausofdave 1
clee95 Posted October 14 Posted October 14 1 minute ago, hausofdave said: doubt the GOP would never intentionally release bad polling for Trump, even for money, b/c Trump's entire deal is he needs to maintain the narritive that he's winning and it will be stolen from him. Internal polling with him losing is directly the anthesis of his strategy maybe they just made **** up, is that outside the realm of possibility? It's GOP after all. 3
Communion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Armani? said: Gen Z White women maybe & lesser extent Millennials. But overall, I can see a 1 or 2 point shift to Dems at most. But we'll see what Taylor's magic did. Sister, you've done the most nose-digging into crosstabs. Has anything stuck out with Hispanic women? I remember pointing out how Hispanic women had the biggest gender divergence from their male counterpoints in 2020. White men are reliably Republican-leaning and black men are reliably Democrat-leaning so it feels like any trends in Hispanic men vs Hispanic women would be a hint at how much gender polarization is happening yet I don't think I've seen a single pollster or media pundit mention them despite being who could decide the outcome for NV. It just feels like there's a polling story here that oddly no one is interested in. On 10/8/2024 at 3:36 PM, Communion said: In a change from 2020, this would be: White, No Degree - +5 D White, Degree - +20 D Non-White, No Degree: -15 D Non, White, Degree: -4 D Dems trading in Hispanic men for White suburban women is going to be such a weird phenomenon to happen. Basically that gender polarization is getting worse and that race depolarization is overstated for those with college degrees and probably only meaningful amongst certain demographics without degrees (as other polls are showing - possibly Hispanic men). On 10/1/2024 at 6:43 PM, Communion said: So basically ~white indies~ in the rust belt are shifting to Harris in a way that makes up for decreased non-white turnout or working alongside maintained 2020 non-white turnout, while the Hispanic rightward shifts in places like NV/AZ are hitting Harris harder cause the white indies there are not liberal suburbanites but "moderate" suburbanites of an entirely different class / cultural character with less generational lean towards Dems and thus aren't swaying for Dem like in the rust belt. On 8/17/2024 at 6:02 PM, Communion said: If comparing the NYT 2020 Exit Polls for Nevada vs the NYT/Sienna recent cross-tabs: 2020 Non-White, College Degree: Biden +25 2024 Non-White, College Degree: Harris +43 (+18) 2020 City Voters: Biden +8 2024 City Voters: Harris +6 (-2) 2020 White: Trump +9 2024 White: Trump +12 (-3) 2020 White, No College Degree: Trump +17 2024 White, No College Degree: Trump +20 (-3) 2020 Total: Biden +2.4 2024 Total: Trump +1 (-3.4) 2020 White, College Degree: Biden +5 2024 White, College Degree: Even (-5) 2020 Clark County: Biden +10 2020 Clark County: Harris +3 (-7) 2020 Women: Biden +14 2024 Women: Harris +7 (-7) 2020 Men: Trump +2 2024 Men: Trump +11 (-9) 2020 No College Degree: Biden +3 2024 No College Degree: Trump +9 (-12) 2020 Washoe County: Biden +14 2024 Washoe County: Even (-14) 2020 Independents: Biden +9 2024 Independents: Trump +6 (-15) 2020 Hispanic: Biden +23 2024 Hispanic: Harris +4 (-19) 2020 Non-White, No College Degree: Biden +30 2024 Non-White, No College Degree: Harris +8 (-22) 2020 Suburb Voters: Biden +26 2024 Suburb Voters: Harris +2 (-24) Edited October 14 by Communion 2
Blade Posted October 14 Posted October 14 3 minutes ago, hausofdave said: doubt the GOP would never intentionally release bad polling for Trump, even for money, b/c Trump's entire deal is he needs to maintain the narrative that he's winning and it will be stolen from him. Internal polling with him losing is directly the anthesis of his strategy It sounds like the politico article made it seem like someone that wasnt the R polling source gave it to them. No clue if that was the R source's intention. 1
Cholien Posted October 14 Posted October 14 the polls are so all over the place NYT swinging from a tie to a Kamala lead, then another poll going from +5 to a tie, followed by the horrible Republican internal polls... Six Flags should add an election poll-themed rollercoaster to capitalize on these developments 1 6
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 25 minutes ago, Communion said: Sister, you've done the most nose-digging into crosstabs. Has anything stuck out with Hispanic women? I remember pointing out how Hispanic women had the biggest gender divergence from their male counterpoints in 2020. White men are reliably Republican-leaning and black men are reliably Democrat-leaning so it feels like any trends in Hispanic men vs Hispanic women would be a hint at how much gender polarization is happening yet I don't think I've seen a single pollster or media pundit mention them despite being who could decide the outcome for NV. The Telemundo poll has Kamala at 60% with Hispanic women but 47% with men Noticias Univision has Kamala at 59% with women & 50% with men Equis Poll has Kamala at 59% with women & 51% with men BSP Research/Hispanic Federation has men at 54% Kamala & women at 64% If we're including it the Siena poll is 48% Kamala for men & 62% for women I guess that's a 11 point gap from the polls I can remember. 1 3
Communion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Wait at this from the end of September and this two weeks later largely being consistent: It's odd as MI is holding steady in public polling. If you believed in public polling, the final stages of polling are beginning to reveal that's the smartest and easiest path to win for Harris is WI/MI/PA and yet Dems seem to be pursuing the hardest possible route to victory. One has to wonder if the shift to pandering towards independent whites is due to some internal forecasting about a collapsed youth vote in Michigan that NYT/Siena (?) showed initial signs of that other pollster may be missing due to the disproportionately large amount of young Muslims in Michigan (cc: @Vermillion). The below map would be an odd yet ironic ending with a painstakingly long night on election night:
woohoo Posted October 14 Posted October 14 3 minutes ago, Communion said: Wait at this from the end of September and this two weeks later largely being consistent: It's odd as MI is holding steady in public polling. If you believed in public polling, the final stages of polling are beginning to reveal that's the smartest and easiest path to win for Harris is WI/MI/PA and yet Dems seem to be pursuing the hardest possible route to victory. One has to wonder if the shift to pandering towards independent whites is due to some internal forecasting about a collapsed youth vote in Michigan that NYT/Siena (?) showed initial signs of that other pollster may be missing due to the disproportionately large amount of young Muslims in Michigan (cc: @Vermillion). The below map would be an odd yet ironic ending with a painstakingly long night on election night: With the Supreme Court we have and all the stunts they'll pull, anything below 310 is a an absolute opening for disaster. In my perfect world the election would be called by 12am Election Day to kill trumps narrative
Vermillion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Ok, some of my prior problems with Roland I'm forgiving with this. But only some. 1
dancingqueen Posted October 14 Posted October 14 49 minutes ago, Blade said: note this is not TOTAL turnout. This is early voting turnout. In 2020 the GOP turnout before election day was a much smaller number than Dems'. In 2024 i'd expect the GOP to at least match or even exceed Dems in 2024 compared to 2020 compared to how small the GOP's early 2020 numbers were during the pandemic. So what does this show us, enthusiasm instead of raw vote totals?
Communion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Armani? said: The Telemundo poll has Kamala at 60% with Hispanic women but 47% with men Noticias Univision has Kamala at 59% with women & 50% with men Equis Poll has Kamala at 59% with women & 51% with men BSP Research/Hispanic Federation has men at 54% Kamala & women at 64% If we're including it the Siena poll is 48% Kamala for men & 62% for women I guess that's a 11 point gap from the polls I can remember. Why does it feel like... the Hispanic female vote should be... better? Hispanic voters would be where you want to see gender polarization as proof in action, not the inverse of a slight chance of enthusiasm collapse. Hispanic Women vs 2020 Hispanic Men vs 2020 Difference vs 2020 2020 Exit Poll (NYT) 69 -- 59 -- 10 -- 2024 Telemundo 60 -9 47 -12 13 3 2024 Noticias Univision 59 -10 50 -9 9 -1 2024 Equis 59 -10 51 -8 8 -2 2024 BSP Research 64 -5 54 -5 10 0 2024 NYT/Siena 62 -7 48 -11 14 4 Average 60.8 -8.2 50 -9 10.8 0.8 Looking at CNN's filtered exit polls for 2020, Biden's strongest numbers were with Hispanic women and Hispanic young people (76% of Hispanic Gen Z'ers). idk, if I was a political reporter in a newsroom, what's in that little table above would be particularly interesting to me. Edited October 14 by Communion
Vermillion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 15 minutes ago, Communion said: One has to wonder if the shift to pandering towards independent whites is due to some internal forecasting about a collapsed youth vote in Michigan that NYT/Siena (?) showed initial signs of that other pollster may be missing due to the disproportionately large amount of young Muslims in Michigan (cc: @Vermillion). You got me this on my recovery night from an insane work week, otherwise this answer would be an essay, but yes, I completely buy every angle of this theory. 1
Sannie Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Leftists voting third party 🤝 Trump Supporters Trump not making it easy for leftists to justify their "not voting for Kamala doesn't mean I'm voting for Trump" narrative. 3 5
Communion Posted October 14 Posted October 14 (edited) 45 minutes ago, woohoo said: With the Supreme Court we have and all the stunts they'll pull, anything below 310 is a an absolute opening for disaster. In my perfect world the election would be called by 12am Election Day to kill trumps narrative PA, White Voters - 2020 NYT Exit Poll: Trump: 55%, Biden: 43% (+12 R) 2024 NYT/Siena: Trump: 49%, Harris: 46% (+3 R) + PA, Independent Voters - 2020 NYT Exit Poll: Biden: 53%, Trump: 42% (+11 D) 2024 NYT/Siena: Harris: 45%, Trump: 44% (+1 D) - vs AZ, White Voters - 2020 NYT Exit Poll: Biden: 48%, Trump: 48% (=) 2024 NYT/Siena: Trump: 60%, Harris: 37% (+23 R) - AZ, Independent Voters - 2020 NYT Exit Poll: Biden: 52%, Trump: 39% (+13 D) 2024 NYT/Siena: Trump: 48%, Harris: 44% (+4 R) - I'm not sure there's gonna be any early calls delivered via a strong sun belt performance, sis. Edited October 14 by Communion 2
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 33 minutes ago, Communion said: Why does it feel like... the Hispanic female vote should be... better? Hispanic voters would be where you want to see gender polarization as proof in action, not the inverse of a slight chance of enthusiasm collapse. Hispanic Women vs 2020 Hispanic Men vs 2020 Difference vs 2020 2020 Exit Poll (NYT) 69 -- 59 -- 10 -- 2024 Telemundo 60 -9 47 -12 13 3 2024 Noticias Univision 59 -10 50 -9 9 -1 2024 Equis 59 -10 51 -8 8 -2 2024 BSP Research 64 -5 54 -5 10 0 2024 NYT/Siena 62 -7 48 -11 14 4 Average 60.8 -8.2 50 -9 10.8 0.8 Looking at CNN's filtered exit polls for 2020, Biden's strongest numbers were with Hispanic women and Hispanic young people (76% of Hispanic Gen Z'ers). idk, if I was a political reporter in a newsroom, what's in that little table above would be particularly interesting to me. Hmm, Edison's Exit Poll has a slightly higher percentage of Hispanic vote going to Democrats than other exit polls. In Catalist it's 63%, and Pew Research it's 59%(but they changed it to 61% after 2022 midterms???) So that may partly be why. They're also missing undecided votes 2
GhostBox Posted October 14 Posted October 14 I don't care if Harris wins by just getting 270! a win is a win and if the trumpers are gonna meltdown they are going to no matter if it's 270 or 400 🤷 let em throw another hissy 💃🏽💃🏽 1
Blade Posted October 14 Posted October 14 38 minutes ago, dancingqueen said: So what does this show us, enthusiasm instead of raw vote totals? It shows that the GOP is quite far behind in *raw* numbers at this point. The lower it is, the more they have to turn out on ED. Of course, there's nothing to suggest they won't turn out on ED in the numbers they need. But correct me if I'm wrong anyone, hasn't Trump reversed his hatred for early and mail-in voting that he had in 2020? Hasn't he encouraged Republicans to vote early?
Blade Posted October 14 Posted October 14 7 minutes ago, GhostBox said: I don't care if Harris wins by just getting 270! a win is a win and if the trumpers are gonna meltdown they are going to no matter if it's 270 or 400 🤷 let em throw another hissy 💃🏽💃🏽 I just think it's scary how close that number is. I think she'd be fine with the blue wall states at 270. But let's say she gets to 271 from losing MI but winning NC or GA or gets to 276 by losing WI but winning GA or NC. Will the republicans in control there try to stop their electors from being the Dem ones? An even bigger nightmare is losing WI *and* PA but winning GA *and* NC and getting 273. Then her fate is in both republicans' legislatures willingness to comply...although i'd hope the SoS in those states aren't bat **** crazy. 4
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 There's a 60% Kamala poll in the swing states by votelatino/gqr research but I don't know where the link is @Communion 2
GhostBox Posted October 14 Posted October 14 23 minutes ago, Blade said: It shows that the GOP is quite far behind in *raw* numbers at this point. The lower it is, the more they have to turn out on ED. Of course, there's nothing to suggest they won't turn out on ED in the numbers they need. But correct me if I'm wrong anyone, hasn't Trump reversed his hatred for early and mail-in voting that he had in 2020? Hasn't he encouraged Republicans to vote early? Yes they have tried to get their voters to do mail in and early voting too. They are just more skeptical given trumps rhetoric. But also unlike 2020 there's gonna be a lot of Dems who will vote on Election Day too.
woohoo Posted October 14 Posted October 14 2 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Yes they have tried to get their voters to do mail in and early voting too. They are just more skeptical given trumps rhetoric. But also unlike 2020 there's gonna be a lot of Dems who will vote on Election Day too. That would be me. Voting in person feels like more of a **** you Trump for some reason over mail in due to Covid in 2020 1
Armani? Posted October 14 Posted October 14 Kamala wasn't hitting record levels with Black women in the avg of polls either btw but all these were before the debate besides the Siena one Black Voter Project - 86%/9% Ipsos/Post Black Poll - 84%/9% Howard Black Voter Poll in Swing States - 83%/10% NAACP - 67%/8%??? Siena Black Poll- 83%/12% 81%/10% 1
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