Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 3 minutes ago, Vermillion said: She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works Hmm I don't think this is true though? I thought some analysts (like Elliot Morris) had said the EC bias advantage was closer to 1-2 pts in 2024. In 2016, it was 2.8 pts. In 2020, it was 3.8 pts. The number I saw for 2024 was 1.2 pts but of course we won't know until we know. 2 2
ZeroSuitBritney Posted October 13 Posted October 13 5 minutes ago, Vermillion said: She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works The way this could've been completely avoided... 1
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 7 minutes ago, Vermillion said: She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works 4 points...Where did u get that?
GhostBox Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Vermillion said: She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works That's not true. Most experts put it at around 2 points. in the averages she up around 3 Edited October 13 by GhostBox
Sannie Posted October 13 Posted October 13 3 minutes ago, Vermillion said: She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works We don't actually know what she "needs", and many say it's less than four points, sis. As with most things this cycle, the number is often exaggerated. 11 minutes ago, VOSS said: If the polls don't get better soon she should come out and say she'll pardon Trump so the country can move forward blah blah blah The polls aren't going to get better because there are dozens of right-wing pollsters who are going to continue flooding the zone. It's not the polls you want to look at, it's the averages. 1 hour ago, bunnyeyes said: Let's not fool ourselves. If Harris loses the narrative is going to be: "see! can't trust leftists to vote. which minority group can we throw under the bus?" Leftists will get the blame either way, and rightfully so. This election cycle, leftists have proven they are more concerned with their egos and feelings of superiority than actually helping the people they've always claimed to support. If Kamala loses, it will be because they helped push the anti-Kamala narrative the right wanted them to push. If Kamala wins, it'll be in spite of the left and not because. Either way, they are going to be left in the dust after this election and will never again be looked or catered to. I guess you reap what you sow. 1 2 3
Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, anti-***** said: Ok thanks guys! Seeing the poll and Armani?'s estimates give me hope that maybe the supposed right-wing shift has been overhyped. Also, the demonizing of college education must be happening exactly because they know educated people break massively towards Democrats. To be honest, it was mostly because of Biden in terms of actual votes In a typical electorate, Trump would need to win 56%(+5 from 2020) of Gen Z White men, 50% of Gen Z Hispanic Men and 23%(+8) of Gen Z Black men to have a sizeable lead. Biden staying on the ticket would have led to something like this perhaps Young Men - 51% Trump/46% Biden 5.135M Trump 4.615M Biden 10.1M Total (48% electorate) White Young Men(60% electorate) 6.11M 56% Trump/41% Biden 3.43M Trump 2.5M Biden Latino Young Men(21% electorate) - 2.12M 50% Trump/47% Biden 1.06M Trump 990k Biden Black Young Men(10% electorate) .96k 75% Biden/23% Biden 720k Biden 220k Trump Other POC Young Men(9% electorate) 910k 50% Biden/47% Trump 455k Biden 425k Trump ** 1
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 4 minutes ago, Blade said: Hmm I don't think this is true though? I thought some analysts (like Elliot Morris) had said the EC bias advantage was closer to 1-2 pts in 2024. In 2016, it was 2.8 pts. In 2020, it was 3.8 pts. The number I saw for 2024 was 1.2 pts but of course we won't know until we know. You calculate out to your safety as the likely max, not the smallest with prayer for the best But I do appreciate the history being listed here and I mean that sincerely. She's lost the election imho with her post-convention pivot that I thought she had a shot she could win but I had a feeling this was going to happen.
GhostBox Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just now, Vermillion said: You calculate out to your safety as the likely max, not the smallest with prayer for the best She's lost the election imho with her post-convention pivot that I thought she had a shot she could win but I had a feeling this was going to happen. If I'm not mistaken you've said Trump was gonna win the whole time. Hopefully she proves you wrong 💃🏽💃🏽💃🏽 2
Sannie Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, Vermillion said: You calculate out to your safety as the likely max, not the smallest with prayer for the best But I do appreciate the history being listed here and I mean that sincerely. She's lost the election imho with her post-convention pivot that I thought she had a shot she could win but I had a feeling this was going to happen. I'll hand it to you, you've been consistent throughout that Trump was going to win so I appreciate that lol. 1
ZeroSuitBritney Posted October 13 Posted October 13 If Kamala loses I'm so ready for the post 2016 blame games again... Blaming everyone on the left, Jill Stein... this time including Arabs + Muslims, Black men... It's going to be everyone's fault but the party and candidate, again 4 2 1
Sannie Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, ZeroSuitBritney said: If Kamala loses I'm so ready for the post 2016 blame games again... Blaming everyone on the left, Jill Stein... this time including Arabs + Muslims, Black men... It's going to be everyone's fault but the party and candidate, again Yep, and you and your party will never be taken seriously ever again. The left will prove themselves to be a worthless electorate that nobody has to pay attention to anymore, and thank god. Dems can finally stop acting like y'all have ever behaved in good faith. 3 2
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 And the never-ending 2016 primary continues, while the massive donkey in the room of the millions of voters that NEVER vote is completely ignored Let me grab a snack 1
ZeroSuitBritney Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, Sannie said: Yep, and you and your party will never be taken seriously ever again. The left will prove themselves to be a worthless electorate that nobody has to pay attention to anymore, and thank god. Dems can finally stop acting like y'all have ever behaved in good faith. What party? Lmao. How many times are you going to keep replying to me until you realize I don't give a damn about your responses which I have brushed aside and which also continue to prove my points over and over I state the obvious like how Kamala attempting to cater more to Republicans than people in her own base who want healthcare and to stop the demonizing of Arabs and immigrants isn't the best for her campaign and you attack me for it. God I love Blue MAGA
Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 14 minutes ago, ZeroSuitBritney said: If Kamala loses I'm so ready for the post 2016 blame games again... Blaming everyone on the left, Jill Stein... this time including Arabs + Muslims, Black men... It's going to be everyone's fault but the party and candidate, again Let's be honest, the arguments we're seeing now will not change. Whoever wins, blue maga will still criticize the left for being uncompromising/trashing Kamala for 3 months straight and the left will still criticize the party's disappointing and demoralizing rightward shift/inability to reach out to the leftist base. the only thing that will change is whether both sides are playing the blame game in the event of a Trump win. 2 1
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I see we're dooming and pointing fingers again. Y'all keep doing that, just remember to vote. 5
Jackson Posted October 13 Posted October 13 36 minutes ago, ZeroSuitBritney said: If Kamala loses I'm so ready for the post 2016 blame games again... Blaming everyone on the left, Jill Stein... this time including Arabs + Muslims, Black men... It's going to be everyone's fault but the party and candidate, again I genuinely believe that most elections have nothing to do with the candidates and campaigns themselves and more to do with voters reacting to the past 2-4 years. That's why Biden won the primary in 2020 and ultimately the election. Voters wanted a safe, diplomatic, electable candidate rather than another populist (Bernie) or four more years of Trump. That's why the polls are pretty consistently showing more voters thinking Kamala is too liberal vs those that think Trump is too conservative, despite that making absolutely zero sense. People are essentially just reacting to their perception of the economy and immigration over the past 3 years, whether justly or not. Voters, of course, are idiots, and the second Trump enacts a single tariff or deports a single immigrant his approval will plummet and we'll get a blue wave in 2026. Today's polls were undeniably bad for Dems. I still don't get the dooming and claims that the race has fundamentally shifted since the convention. These are the national polling gaps on September 1st, which is when Kamala had her biggest lead, vs today: Silver Bulletin: 3.5% vs 2.8% 538: 3.2% vs 2.8% NYT: 3% vs 2% (rounded) It's also worth noting that in most of those polls, Kamala had her largest % of support today, not at the beginning of September. So the narrative that she's lost enthusiasm just doesn't pan out. To the extent that her lead has shrunk (which it has done by less than 1%), it's been because Trump has picked up more undecided voters, not that Kamala has lost voters, which was a widely expected outcome. 7
ZeroSuitBritney Posted October 13 Posted October 13 2 minutes ago, Blade said: Let's be honest, the arguments we're seeing now will not change. Whoever wins, blue maga will still criticize the left for being uncompromising/trashing Kamala for 3 months straight and the left will still criticize the party's disappointing and demoralizing rightward shift/inability to reach out to the leftist base. the only thing that will change is whether both sides are playing the blame game in the event of a Trump win. You're 100% right. There is a moral difference between the two though. The left will blame Kamala/Democratic party for running on some pretty dangerous right wing policies and ignoring a huge chunk of voters who never vote because both parties don't bring any significant change for them or the country, while we will get the blame by Blue MAGA for not compromising for Kamala and being okay with her demonizing immigrants and continuing to break both US and International laws so a US backed genocide can continue. It's day and night, really. 1 1
Redstreak Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Vermillion said: We need to bring Kamala "that little girl was me **** Joe Biden" Harris BACK Edited October 13 by Redstreak 1
Jackson Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, Vermillion said: Kinda hoping this is real and they start feuding, voters would love her distancing herself from Biden She should stop sending money to Israel in retaliation 1
Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 28 minutes ago, Initials said: You're going to get 4 years of Trump and be happy. My favorite part of election season is when normies who have not said a word in this thread pop in to reveal they're a ****** maggot (yes those words rhyme) 1 7
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Speaking of social media, I would not ban Tiktok or X or any of the sites because they are a way for us to find other people in the LGBTQ+ community, but there should be more binding laws against hate speech and attempts to silence minority voices.
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