Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I'd like to think the narrative would be something like "Inflation and immigration were too much to overcome and no democrat was going to win this year" Almost every incumbent party in the western world has either lost or is losing their respective elections. I feel like Harris is doing the best she can given the circumstances honestly. 3
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 3 minutes ago, Armani? said: My slightly worse case, but realistic prediction Young Men - 51% Kamala/46% Trump 5.171M Kamala 4.607M Trump 10.1M Total (48% electorate) White Young Men(60% electorate) 6.11M 53% Trump/44% Kamala 3.22M Trump 2.67M Kamala Latino Young Men(21% electorate) - 2.12M 55% Kamala/42% Trump 1.17M Kamala 885k Trump Black Young Men(10% electorate) .96k 82% Kamala/16% Trump 795k Kamala 155k Trump Other POC Young Men(9% electorate) 910k 60% Kamala/37% Trump 546k Kamala 337k Trump ** I think Millennial Black men will break for Trump more going by the past 2 cycle exit polls 3 minutes ago, Vermillion said: The data I've seen is conflicting. The gap between whether that impression of increased enthusiasm among Gen Z white men actually translates to votes continues to widen. As to the motivations, tends to be more culturally signaling against her as opposed to for him, as there's an unspoken agreement culturally that he's an effective vehicle for anti #MeToo backlash even if he's a used car salesman. Ok thanks guys! Seeing the poll and Armani?'s estimates give me hope that maybe the supposed right-wing shift has been overhyped. Also, the demonizing of college education must be happening exactly because they know educated people break massively towards Democrats.
Thuggin Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Still waiting for the rightward shift boost to manifest in the polls. Surely the moderate Republicans who are so eager to vote for Kamala are just waiting for her to promise their beloved Liz Cheney Secretary of State. It's worth deflating the base. Libs are voting for her no matter what and the left doesn't vote anyway. Her team KNOWS what they're doing! There are way more right leaning independents out there so appealing to them will totally work and the left won't be blamed if she loses at all. The pundit class thinks most right leaning independent voters are like Alyssa Farrah Griffin and simply need Kamala to promise to support school choice before getting on board whereas the average right leaning independent is more like my dad - basically a Republican minus moderate stances on maybe a few social issues but thinks all of the government is corrupt so doesn't want to identify with a party. And this type of voter would never vote for a Democrat; they're much more easily persuaded to simply sit out and not vote for anyone. 1 1
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 For anybody interested, here's Kamala's senior campaign advisor discussing the campaigns internal polls and campaign strategy. It's worth a listen. 3
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 30 minutes ago, Anthinos said: We really are living in scary times. I can't believe that so many people want a right-wing extremist like Trump as president. Even here in Europe, such politicians and parties are winning in many countries. What is happening to the people? Personally, I am slightly optimistic. The German media are predicting Harris' victory. Harris 48.5 % Trump 45.1 % It's the economical struggle that's making people look for someone to blame for it. And unfortunately politicians succeed to blame/scapegoat minorities for it time and time again. It's just wrong that there's constantly more billionaires in the world but the average person has to worry about how they're gonna make it through this month. And the last person who's been able to say that out loud is Bernie Sanders.
Marianah Adkins Posted October 13 Posted October 13 40 minutes ago, Anthinos said: We really are living in scary times. I can't believe that so many people want a right-wing extremist like Trump as president. Even here in Europe, such politicians and parties are winning in many countries. What is happening to the people? Personally, I am slightly optimistic. The German media are predicting Harris' victory. Harris 48.5 % Trump 45.1 % The centrists need to reinvent themselves asap. History has shown us that fascism (and communism) thrives when there is a weak political center
GhostBox Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Did anyone think Harris was gonna keep those high numbers she got in the polls after the debate forever ? 💀 as history proves yes you may get a bump but it always fades when the election gets closer. if anything she benefited from the debate and good press she received from the debate even more because alot of people have already been voting 👏🏼 But honestly this feels kinda like 2012 more than any other election. 🤷
wastedpotential Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I suppose one net positive of latino voters tacking to the right might be a re-evaluation of Puerto Rican status, since the GOP might be less unilaterally opposed to a binding referendum if the potential EC/Congressional votes are actually competitive for them I guess we'll have to see what the straw poll results are this year but if it's a close result (or even leans right), that door might get opened again. I haven't seen PR specific polling, and I'd have to assume there's a lot of resentment there from how Trump handled hurricane Maria, but it seems to be possible, from my uninformed and unresearched pov 1 1
i spit on haters Posted October 13 Posted October 13 I have a GLOCK. And, umm, I've had it for quite some time. 1
Ghiles Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, VOSS said: Hezbollah is supported by only a small minority of Lebanese. I guess a lot of them live in Dearborn. Shia muslims are not a minority in Lebanon and if there's anything that Sunni and Christian Lebanese dislike more than Hezbollah, it's the state of Israel currently at its 6th invasion of Lebanon since 1978 1
Lil Mistee Posted October 13 Posted October 13 9 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: I have a GLOCK. And, umm, I've had it for quite some time. The worst gun… let me vote for someone else
anti-bitch Posted October 13 Posted October 13 33 minutes ago, Tovitov said: I'd like to think the narrative would be something like "Inflation and immigration were too much to overcome and no democrat was going to win this year" Almost every incumbent party in the western world has either lost or is losing their respective elections. I feel like Harris is doing the best she can given the circumstances honestly. In a way, yeah. It looks like being incumbent is a burden in recent years because of everything that's happened i the world. You could say Biden won partly because people wanted normalcy after the chaos of Trump. But now I guess people have forgotten why they hated Trump. So Kamala winning really would be quite an achievement. The inflation slowing down should help with that. 2
VOSS Posted October 13 Posted October 13 If the polls don't get better soon she should come out and say she'll pardon Trump so the country can move forward blah blah blah 2
Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 hour ago, Tovitov said: It would kind of explain why the Harris camp is zero'ing in on Republican Indies with the Bipartisanship rhetoric. Also, he spoke about how Harris's internal polls havent moved much (even after the debate) and that all the swing states are close but with Harris in a better position overall. Who knows honestly What I find interesting is his confidence that Trump will get to 48% or even 48.5% this time. Sounds like they're hyper-focused on making sure their numbers get to at least 49% and of course ideally 50% in the swing states. Also, it sounds like the Harris campaign expects turnout equal to or more than 2020? I find that shocking and almost hard to believe. I've seen few takes on turnout but the few I've seen have all been pointing to somewhere in between 2016 and 2020 turnout.
GhostBox Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just now, ZeroSuitBritney said: The new NBC polls. Holy OMG A TIED RACE RUN FOR THE HILLLLLZ 💀
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, GhostBox said: OMG A TIED RACE RUN FOR THE HILLLLLZ 💀 She needs a four point advantage to get the Electoral College. This framing no longer works 1
Blade Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, ZeroSuitBritney said: The new NBC polls. Holy Those are estimations that they update regularly not polls. Basically in like with what the Harris campaign said they've seen all along. According to Plouffe they never saw the "bump" public polls saw. It was always a tight race. The Harris campaign is either telling the truth and or just wants us to believe it's close to motivate/scare people to vote. I think it's both. 3
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