Sannie Posted October 13 Posted October 13 3 hours ago, Blade said: Dems need to start seriously running independent candidates in both senate and house races in red states. I'm still unsure if Osborn can really win but the fact that he's even close enough to get Fischer to panic a bit means it's worthwhile and with an overflow of money, dumping it into these races that seem "unwinnable" might result in a few surprises. They really shouldn't be leaving any seat open. Every single space where a Dem can run, they should. I really don't get the giving up and letting the GOP take the seat by default.
Mellark Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just got my early voting ballot in LA County. This election is different compared to 2020. This is something to get off my chest but: I am concerned at the constant misinformation and some insufferable chronically online narcissistic activists are irritating me and showing their true colors and it is always the ones who live in blue states and using minorities and marginalized groups' trauma to justify their lazy intellectualism. In an ideal world, a multi-party system would be ideal to have representative ideas of a country, but it's not realistic the way this country is structured unfortunately. But when you have to decide between democracy and literal fascism, then you gotta vote strategically. People in blue states don't have to worry much, while people in red states or swing battleground states have no choice but to vote for the candidate that works for them because officials in red states care about furthering their agenda rather than supporting their constituents by banning reproductive rights and gender-affirming care for example. The one thing that is also concerning is how everything is expensive under Biden when that is Trump's tax policies kicking in. It was "good" during Trump because Obama's tax policies kicked in, the way MAGA doesn't realize that their own leader does not give a **** about them. I don't see the logic of voting for Stein when she has played people for years. All she does is hang on to whatever cause is trending during the election year and we never hear from her again until the next election year. Her party has never taken initiative to elect in HOR or the Senate, just a distraction. 12
Wonderland Posted October 13 Posted October 13 12 minutes ago, dabunique said: Is your delusion finally over now? 1
Virgos Groove Posted October 13 Posted October 13 13 hours ago, Sannie said: Am I interpreting this wrong? Trump did let them off the hook by ripping up the deal that kept Iran from developing nuclear weapons for years. The thing is Iran wanted the deal. After the US pulled out, Trump imposed a raft of sanctions that have crippled the Iranian economy. Kamala framing leaving the deal as "letting them off the hook" is part of a neocon attempt to prevent any diplomacy with Iran, Venezuela, Russia, etc. It's why Trump, despite having pulled out of major arms treaties with Russia (hello, Ukraine War!) or helped exacerbate famine in Venezuela, is portrayed as "besties with dictators". 1
cloudbusting Posted October 13 Posted October 13 just realized that I'm seeing Allie X the day after the election and Laura Marling that weekend, so I get to either relax or cheer myself up (or distract myself if it takes a few days for it to be called) with my faves immediately 2
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 7 hours ago, GhostBox said: This has been a consistent part of her stump speeches so I don't know why anyone is saying she abandoned it
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 We got three national polls this morning: CBS/YouGov - Harris +3 ABC/Ipsos - Harris +2 NBC/Hart Research - Tied Remember to vote! It's gonna be a close one! 2
shelven Posted October 13 Posted October 13 The race has undeniably tightened compared to a few weeks ago. If you're denying that, you're just setting yourself up for a possible Hillary 2016 kind of disappointment/shock. The trio of national polls released this morning are pretty unambiguously bad for her. The party will never actually admit this, but if she ends up losing, the polling journey of this cycle will objectively show that things tightened against her when she stopped trying to excite the Dem base as much and instead flipped almost 100% of her efforts to trying to appeal to non-Trump Republicans. The 2020 election showed there simply aren't very many of those voters. Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I really think 2024 final exit polls will end up showing that she pulled roughly the same number of Republicans from Trump as he did Democrats. 8
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 5 minutes ago, shelven said: The race has undeniably tightened compared to a few weeks ago. If you're denying that, you're just setting yourself up for a possible Hillary 2016 kind of disappointment/shock. The trio of national polls released this morning are pretty unambiguously bad for her. The party will never actually admit this, but if she ends up losing, the polling journey of this cycle will objectively show that things tightened against her when she stopped trying to excite the Dem base as much and instead flipped almost 100% of her efforts to trying to appeal to non-Trump Republicans. The 2020 election showed there simply aren't very many of those voters. Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I really think 2024 final exit polls will end up showing that she pulled roughly the same number of Republicans from Trump as he did Democrats. FWIW, we went from a potential landslide loss with Biden to a close race with Harris. I think people got a little ahead of themselves in September after the debate, but I think we all kind of knew it would tighten. Atleast we have a chance though, that's more than I can say about Biden in July. 3
Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 8 minutes ago, shelven said: The race has undeniably tightened compared to a few weeks ago. If you're denying that, you're just setting yourself up for a possible Hillary 2016 kind of disappointment/shock. The trio of national polls released this morning are pretty unambiguously bad for her. The party will never actually admit this, but if she ends up losing, the polling journey of this cycle will objectively show that things tightened against her when she stopped trying to excite the Dem base as much and instead flipped almost 100% of her efforts to trying to appeal to non-Trump Republicans. The 2020 election showed there simply aren't very many of those voters. Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I really think 2024 final exit polls will end up showing that she pulled roughly the same number of Republicans from Trump as he did Democrats. To be honest, I think she lost some votes after the Fema funding going to immigrants misinformation
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 13 minutes ago, shelven said: The race has undeniably tightened compared to a few weeks ago. If you're denying that, you're just setting yourself up for a possible Hillary 2016 kind of disappointment/shock. The trio of national polls released this morning are pretty unambiguously bad for her. The party will never actually admit this, but if she ends up losing, the polling journey of this cycle will objectively show that things tightened against her when she stopped trying to excite the Dem base as much and instead flipped almost 100% of her efforts to trying to appeal to non-Trump Republicans. The 2020 election showed there simply aren't very many of those voters. Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I really think 2024 final exit polls will end up showing that she pulled roughly the same number of Republicans from Trump as he did Democrats. And what was the motivation for that flip and who provided it? A notion that the base would be less likely to come out and support? I'm not trying to be facetious or confrontational, I completely agree and am trying to unpack. I've spent dozens of pages already doing this through the prism of Arab-Americans in Michigan and @Communion's done extensive unpacking on the tack right on immigration so I'm done with both those fronts and would love to unpack their tack right on issues other than those two atm.
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 7 minutes ago, shelven said: The race has undeniably tightened compared to a few weeks ago. If you're denying that, you're just setting yourself up for a possible Hillary 2016 kind of disappointment/shock. The trio of national polls released this morning are pretty unambiguously bad for her. The party will never actually admit this, but if she ends up losing, the polling journey of this cycle will objectively show that things tightened against her when she stopped trying to excite the Dem base as much and instead flipped almost 100% of her efforts to trying to appeal to non-Trump Republicans. The 2020 election showed there simply aren't very many of those voters. Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I really think 2024 final exit polls will end up showing that she pulled roughly the same number of Republicans from Trump as he did Democrats. Could be but there's also been a massive disinformation campaign swirling around about the hurricane relief....I fear people are believing the lies 4
Armani? Posted October 13 Posted October 13 56% of Americans wanting massive deportation in the ABC poll. Idiots Because they'll just be reactionary and swing back if it were to happen 1 1
Tovitov Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, Armani? said: 56% of Americans wanting massive deportation in the ABC poll. Idiots Because they'll just be reactionary and swing back if it were to happen Some posters are going after Harris for swinging right on Immigration when the country has swung even further right apparently 3
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Just now, Armani? said: 56% of Americans wanting massive deportation in the ABC poll. Idiots Because they'll just be reactionary and swing back if it were to happen Yeah as much as it sickens me....Trumps hate speech and fear mongering around migrants is working. Ugh sometimes I hate being in this Country
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 13 Posted October 13 (edited) Idc I will never understand how any immigrant can vote for Trump when she demonizes immigrants every chance he gets Edited October 13 by RihRihGirrrl
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 Where is the evidence cited in the original CNN piece or follow-up by NYT that Roberts is shaken by the immunity backlash? It cites no one. His tone in speeches he practiced in the mirror? I'm so sick of these ****ing takes of everyone pretending everything is normal and SCOTUS is still operating, or ever operated in good faith. 1
woohoo Posted October 13 Posted October 13 The ONLY thing giving me any hope atm are the analysis of Pennsylvanias early votes and the fact that maybe, just maybe pollsters over corrected for trump since 2020 even though I think polls have been a C at best since 2016.
Vermillion Posted October 13 Posted October 13 1 minute ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Idc I will never understand how any immigrant can vote for Trump when she demonizes immigrants every chance he gets Because many of them consider themselves white culturally once they assimilate. Texas Monthly did a very controversial, very well researched piece on it several years ago.
shelven Posted October 13 Posted October 13 21 minutes ago, Armani? said: To be honest, I think she lost some votes after the Fema funding going to immigrants misinformation 20 minutes ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Could be but there's also been a massive disinformation campaign swirling around about the hurricane relief....I fear people are believing the lies I'd be curious to get some polling on this, but my gut reaction is this wouldn't be enough if there really has been a 2-3 point shift in the national environment like the trio of polls this morning suggests. Low information voters tend to be selfish and vote based on issues (or perceived issues) that directly affect them. I'm having a difficult time imagining that 2-3% of the entire country's electorate has shifted over an issue that really only directly affects a handful of states. But like I said, maybe we'll get some specific polling on this question that disproves me on that. The more intuitive explanation to me is that she was at her peak when she was (a) exciting her base, and (b) very aggressively trying to distinguish herself from Trump. Now she's not really doing either of those things. "Vote for me because the other side consists of Nazis" would seem to work a lot better than "Vote for me because the other side consists of Nazis... but we also should keep in mind that it's important to work with some of those Nazis! I'll put at least one in my cabinet and probably have a few others advise me on policy :)" EDIT: I also can't help thinking about all these polls that show that voters want a change and then replaying Harris's "I wouldn't have done a single thing different from Biden (except put a Republican in my cabinet)" answer in my mind I really think that answer will end up haunting her the way that Hillary's "basket of deplorables" answer haunted her if she loses. 1 2
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