Wonderland Posted October 12 Posted October 12 Quote While the Harris campaign has deployed Republican surrogates including former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) to try to win over swing voters, just one of the undecided or Trump-leaning voters in this week's focus group viewed Cheney's recent endorsement of Harris favorably *pretends to be shocked* 7
ClashAndBurn Posted October 12 Posted October 12 3 hours ago, GhostBox said: Listen I get what you are saying (and I sorta agree), but just because something bad might happen in the future anyway doesn't mean you should give up and make/let it happen now 💀 Fair enough, but "give up and let Trump win" isn't my suggestion, nor would it ever be. My position is that… what we're fighting against is an inevitable headwind that will come about eventually. All we're really doing is just delaying it. Rather than fantasies like "push her left," the goal should just be to push her over the finish line, don't expect anything, and then be ready to have to do the same thing in four years with nothing to show for it other than massively demoralized base when people finally realize Kamala Harris can't codify Roe v. Wade into law with a divided government. And the way our political system is doesn't really allow for better things to be possible. Democrats are institutionalists and will both never have 60 Senators to break the filibuster, nor will they ever have 50 who are willing to change the rules and do away with it. Laws will always have to have bipartisan buy-in. And it's much easier to see 10 democrats crossing over to help Republicans pass a bad law that hurts the American people than it is to expect even one Republican to crossover and help pass even the most meager of incremental improvements. Democrats are always seeking bipartisanship and get laughed at to their faces (as they should). But they're eager to give it out when the shoe is on the other foot and Republicans are in charge. They're always willing to compromise on -something- and allow the Overton Window to ratchet to the right. 6 2
DevilsRollTheDice Posted October 12 Posted October 12 5 hours ago, Bloo said: I do have more basis for my claims. First, the fact is Kamala's polling numbers are going down right as she's pivoting hardcore to the right. That's a pretty clear signal that that is a losing strategy. Secondly, the European example is a solid parallel to political patterns in the US. And, yes, swing state voters win the election. But I don't see how that somehow discredits how people respond to lame political messaging. Are you going to respond to the data I provided for you or just ignore it? European governments are structured differently. Most are parliamentary systems. It is not a solid parallel. The way our president is selected is an entirely different system. What is the basis for your claim? That you believe it? You can Google Biden's victory analysis for yourself and easily see that he won by winning independents, moderates, suburban voters, and men in key swing states. Classic far left voting demos . He improved Clinton's performance in these groups significantly. As for the polling, numerous users (and political analysts) have pointed out that it's essentially flat. It's true that election is extremely tight. Dems are doing their best to win undecided swing state voters which are largely independents/moderates. The far left has proved itself as fickle and unreliable place to look for essential votes. 1
Mike91 Posted October 12 Posted October 12 7 hours ago, nooniebao said: She thinks she's winning voters over with this but she's really just alienating them. "I'll be no different than Biden! Lethal military! I love republicans!" **** off with that ****. 3
Armani? Posted October 12 Posted October 12 Siena did a oversample and the best they could do was being very slightly behind considerably smaller national poll crosstab averages that are themselves higher % for Trump than actual Black polls They are so cooked after this election https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/poll-black-voters-harris-trump.html Presidential support among Black voters Dem. Rep. Margin 2016 Estimates 92% 7% Dem. +85 2020 Estimates 90% 9% Dem. +81 2024 Times/Siena Oct. poll 78% 15% Dem. +63 Vote shares and victory margins for 2016 and 2020 are averages of the following: estimates from studies of validated voters by the Pew Research Center, post-election assessments by Catalist and exit polls by the National Election Pool. By June Kim 2 2
Armani? Posted October 12 Posted October 12 9 minutes ago, Chemist said: Arizona is truly gone huh? It may indeed be but it very likely won't be near +6 Trump Their polling is off this cycle. +4 Kamala Pennsylvania ain't realistic either
Harrier Posted October 12 Posted October 12 Throwing darts here, but maybe part of the thinking with this over the top bipartisan **** is that because she will not have the senate, trying to work with post-Trump Republicans will be the only way for her to pass any policy If so it's giving delusion, the Republican party is going to continue to be scorched earth after Trump. Silver lining, if she does lose we won't have to sit through this again from a mainstream democrat because theyll view it as a failed strategy 1
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 12 Posted October 12 27 minutes ago, Chemist said: Arizona is truly gone huh? I think they're wrong with the spread on both fronts but it's good to see they have her growing the lead in PA.
Chemist Posted October 12 Posted October 12 1 hour ago, Mike91 said: She thinks she's winning voters over with this but she's really just alienating them. "I'll be no different than Biden! Lethal military! I love republicans!" **** off with that ****. At least we know, if she loses what to blame
tiejc Posted October 12 Posted October 12 I'm dying on the 292 Harris hill with PA, MI, WI, NV, NC and NE-2. 6
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 12 Posted October 12 2 hours ago, Armani? said: It may indeed be but it very likely won't be near +6 Trump Their polling is off this cycle. +4 Kamala Pennsylvania ain't realistic either I think it'll be +2 both ways....PA for Harris, AZ for Trump
RihRihGirrrl Posted October 12 Posted October 12 2 minutes ago, tiejc said: I'm dying on the 292 Harris hill with PA, MI, WI, NV, NC and NE-2. I actually think Georgia is more likely to go Blue than NC
Communion Posted October 12 Posted October 12 3 hours ago, DevilsRollTheDice said: You can Google Biden's victory analysis for yourself and easily see that he won by winning independents, moderates, suburban voters, and men in key swing states. The erasure here of the surge in youth vote that he got solely due to progressive policy adoption is interesting. 3
woohoo Posted October 12 Posted October 12 2 hours ago, Harrier said: Throwing darts here, but maybe part of the thinking with this over the top bipartisan **** is that because she will not have the senate, trying to work with post-Trump Republicans will be the only way for her to pass any policy If so it's giving delusion, the Republican party is going to continue to be scorched earth after Trump. Silver lining, if she does lose we won't have to sit through this again from a mainstream democrat because theyll view it as a failed strategy If she does lose we may not have to sit through an election again until we're all like 60, but hear me out, I'm gonna get morbid. Maybe the country and these ******* morons in the south and Midwest need to see what true suffering the Republican Party can cause to wake them up. Because at this point, between man made hurricanes and these conspiracies, I don't know what else saves them other than great suffering. Whether it be cruel policy that finally affects them, the tariffs setting off an age of poverty, absolute economic collapse from trump being a complete idiot, or some handmaidens tale form of outcome. Because at this point I really don't know what brings people back from psycho land. I truly don't 3
DevilsRollTheDice Posted October 12 Posted October 12 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Communion said: The erasure here of the surge in youth vote that he got solely due to progressive policy adoption is interesting. There is no erasure. Please provide data and actual analysis to back up your claims. Voting turnout was extremely high across the board due to mail-in ballots. You're also conflating young with far left. There may be crossover but that is conjecture. The biggest Biden swings were (in order): 1.) moderates -> +12 2.) independents -> +12 3.) income 55k-99k -> +11 4.) white men -> +7 5.) Catholics -> +6 Trump actually improved among older millennials +5. Data here. Biden's victorious coalition looks an awful lot like the voters Dems are trying to court rather than people like y'all who will never vote for them. That user asked for data. I've provided it. Y'all are just claiming things based on vibes and being willfully ignorant about what Dems must due to win with our system of government. A Dem win is harm reduction. Until the far left proves itself an actually winning/reliable coalition, Dems will have to court the voters that can win swing states. Edited October 12 by DevilsRollTheDice 11 1
shelven Posted October 12 Posted October 12 Well the good news is that after this election, we'll either know we should start treating NYT/Siena polls as gospel like Selzer's final Iowa poll, or we can stop viewing them as meaningfully better than any other pollster, because this 10-point divergence between PA and AZ is either going to be the biggest "I told you so" ever from them or will show they had no clue what they were doing this cycle 4
Bears01 Posted October 12 Posted October 12 10 hours ago, nooniebao said: This so much. So much this. "republicans are good, it's just Trump!!!" Is a losing message and the day Democrats wake up to the fact that most of their base doesn't give a flying **** about bipartisanship can't come soon enough 1 2
ClashAndBurn Posted October 12 Posted October 12 2 hours ago, Harrier said: Throwing darts here, but maybe part of the thinking with this over the top bipartisan **** is that because she will not have the senate, trying to work with post-Trump Republicans will be the only way for her to pass any policy If so it's giving delusion, the Republican party is going to continue to be scorched earth after Trump. Silver lining, if she does lose we won't have to sit through this again from a mainstream democrat because theyll view it as a failed strategy If she loses, the strategy won't be blamed. There's a whole host of things that will be blamed before they ever do any introspection on anything like THAT, I assure you The first of which will be Jill Stein and the left, as always. Her bipartisanship fetish will be at the very bottom along with her rabid Ultra-Zionism 1
Marianah Adkins Posted October 12 Posted October 12 The Democrats need to own their economic platforms for once and stop pandering to both Leftists and Republicans using cultural markers ranging from performative activism for minorities to swooning war criminals like Cheney. They were the party of the working class in the first place (which is now but a mirage). But knowing how beholden they are to corporate interests, it will never happen and they will continue running for elections using endless demagougery to scare its voters rather than convince them. 1
Vroom Vroom Posted October 12 Posted October 12 I had lunch with my boyfriend's family friend and she was telling me how she's been fighting with her 22 year old son about politics lately. He keeps telling her that Kamala has a low IQ and that the presidency is a job for a white man. He supports Trump but he's not voting because it's "rigged" The young white male incel vote Trump has been focusing on is such an unreliable voting block. If Trump loses, books will be written about how awful his campaign was 5
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