Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 @shelven @Vermillion Can someone remind me how exit polls work on election day? Why do I vaguely remember immediate exit poll numbers on ED 2020 looking dire for Biden? Yet the exit polls references on let's say wikipedia pages seem to be accurate based on the actual results. Do we have to wait for the more accurate exit polls? I just don't want to doom if some CNN exit polls spell doom the night of the election.
GhostBox Posted October 10 Posted October 10 im enjoying the "give no shits" Biden attitude lately 😂 3
Armani? Posted October 10 Posted October 10 Not the Inquirer ruining the media outlets fun for engagement 1 1
noodlelymph Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Armani? said: I don't think anyone was predicting 4pt lead avgs in the states but we'll see what happens next month Genuinely *where* is all this extra money going to? I feel like there's a ceiling on how much a presidential campaign can realistically spend on these races to make a difference. You would think that Dem megadonors would be smarter and dump more of these extraneous tens of millions in competitive senate races like say kunce vs Hawley… (even a small surge in cash on hand for kunce could go a LONG way for his campaign). 1 3
Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 Another good poll showing that the popular vote/EC gap will not be as favorable to R's as 2020 Harris +22 in CA while Biden '20 was +29 Meanwhile in PA: 2 1
Armani? Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, dabunique said: LOL Saying this in Detroit when he's supposedly supposed to be losing by less there
Tovitov Posted October 10 Posted October 10 4 minutes ago, Raspberries said: Polling is broken, exhibit 9001 1
Armani? Posted October 10 Posted October 10 lol, I guess technically it's a improvement from their last poll 2
Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 Just now, Armani? said: lol, I guess technically it's a improvement from their last poll Last was tied?
Tovitov Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Raspberries said: The RV sample for Philidelphia is 134 people, the LV screen is 14 people Edited October 10 by Tovitov 1 1
Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 3 minutes ago, Tovitov said: The RV sample for Philidelphia is 134 people, the LV screen is 14 people 1 8
shelven Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Blade said: @shelven @Vermillion Can someone remind me how exit polls work on election day? Why do I vaguely remember immediate exit poll numbers on ED 2020 looking dire for Biden? Yet the exit polls references on let's say wikipedia pages seem to be accurate based on the actual results. Do we have to wait for the more accurate exit polls? I just don't want to doom if some CNN exit polls spell doom the night of the election. Election day exit poll results have two main problems with them: (1) the networks start reporting the results of them while they're still soliciting new responses, so the early reports will have the smallest sample sizes and thus more susceptible to natural margin of error; and (2) the exit polls that are published days later are somewhat accurate because they're weighted based on the actual turnout of various demographic groups in that election. But the networks obviously don't know what that turnout will look like when they start reporting their results at 5pm on election night, so those reported results range from being weighted based on questionable assumptions to not being weighted at all. tl;dr is that election evening exit poll results are basically completely unscientific and are for entertainment purposes only. Ignore them regardless of whether they look like good news or bad news. 3
Armani? Posted October 10 Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, Blade said: Last was tied? Yes, the last one was in September
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 hour ago, GhostBox said: im enjoying the "give no shits" Biden attitude lately 😂 Pathetic question from the interviewer. Journalism is dead. 1 hour ago, noodlelymph said: Genuinely *where* is all this extra money going to? I feel like there's a ceiling on how much a presidential campaign can realistically spend on these races to make a difference. You would think that Dem megadonors would be smarter and dump more of these extraneous tens of millions in competitive senate races like say kunce vs Hawley… (even a small surge in cash on hand for kunce could go a LONG way for his campaign). It's going towards the Hurricane machine. 7
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