Tovitov Posted October 10 Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, Blade said: Biden won the district by 5% in 2020, however, the district was redrawn after the census and he only won the current district by 0.6%. So good poll for Harris. 1 3
dabunique Posted October 10 Posted October 10 15 minutes ago, Blade said: @shelven NYT showing deep red FL again +9 Rick Scott? +9 for Voldemort ... en que mundo lol
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 2 hours ago, Tovitov said: Ever since 2016, democrats panic about every election. They point fingers or doom about the early vote returns or whatever outlier poll gets released. Every special, every midterm, every governor race. I'm worn out guys. And then you have certain people in this thread practically giddy on the idea of Harris slipping because they're sociopaths who want a genocide in the US. Dems really remind me of popstar stans at times. Any time things aren't 100% positive, meltdowns ensue even when nothing is fundamentally changing the race. I said weeks ago we are going to get a flood of **** polls and right-leaning polls specifically to keep the race looking "close" because that is how all of these organizations make money. At the same time, I guess I don't blame people because not everyone is able to parse polls like those of us who watch them every day. Most people just see numbers and go off that instead of taking into account the polling firms history, methodology, etc. 2 hours ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Have there even been any polls out that have captured sentiments after the Harris/Walz media blitz No since the blitz began, like, three days ago. People continuing to fall for Axios' fear mongering when they've been doing this the entire cycle. 2
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 5 minutes ago, Tovitov said: Biden won the district by 5% in 2020, however, the district was redrawn after the census and he only won the current district by 0.6%. So good poll for Harris. Couple this with the ballot returns and PA Dems are inching closer and closer to the firewall numbers they need heading into ED. It'll be wild if PA ends up being her strongest Rust Belt state after months of agonizing over it. 1 1
dman4life Posted October 10 Posted October 10 I'm not a doomer (yet ) but I will say she isn't necessarily closing the deal with these interviews. The question on how she would differ from Biden was a huge missed opportunity that will forever haunt her if she ends up losing. Voters have shown that they're willing to give her a chance and not hold her accountable to Biden's agenda despite being apart of the current administration but answers like that don't help her at all and I'm honestly surprised at how ill prepared she was for it. I've said this before in this thread but not calling out Trump for his sham of a "strong economy" that he inherited from Obama is another missed opportunity. I do still think she barely wins this but it's gonna be an uphill battle and she needs to get with her team and sharpen up these word salad responses quick! Come on Kamala you're so close don't f*** this up! 6 2
Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 The way the only things that have changed were the Quinnipiac polls and the entire TL is just this: Saying Trump is in the lead when all the models still say "toss up" 4
Redstreak Posted October 10 Posted October 10 I guess one thing I can say is unlike Clinton there's time to course correct? Hillary was way overconfident whereas it seems like Kamala isn't really sure what strategy to take? Hopefully her team is looking at recent polling and having all hands on deck meetings on what currently isn't working
i spit on haters Posted October 10 Posted October 10 Yeah, saying 'I'll have a republican in my cabinet' isn't a solid answer when trying to convey a dichotomy between her and Biden. Just put Walz had the forefront and have him do most of the interviews going forward. Walz is far more likable, comes across more honest and genuine and his policies are popular with dem voters. Harris is just not good interviews when it comes to selling herself to voters. 5
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 4 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: Yeah, saying 'I'll have a republican in my cabinet' isn't a solid answer when trying to convey a dichotomy between her and Biden. Just put Walz had the forefront and have him do most of the interviews going forward. Walz is far more likable, comes across more honest and genuine and his policies are popular with dem voters. Harris is just not good interviews when it comes to selling herself to voters. Bipartisanship is objectively incredibly popular so her statement did not hurt her. The vast majority does not operate like leftists or MAGA (same thing) where they want a complete shut out of anyone who is different from them. I can see the argument for why she shouldn't be saying she won't be different from Biden, though. There needs to be greater focus on what separates them. Stop playing around and worrying about Biden and his administration's feelings. Who GAF about his feelings and decorum at this point? ------ 6
Redstreak Posted October 10 Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, Blade said: The way the only things that have changed were the Quinnipiac polls and the entire TL is just this: Saying Trump is in the lead when all the models still say "toss up" I'm so glad I dropped TYT, they've gone absolutely down the drain these past couple years, especially cenk and Ana John Iadarola>>>>>
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted October 10 ATRL Moderator Posted October 10 6 minutes ago, i spit on haters said: Yeah, saying 'I'll have a republican in my cabinet' isn't a solid answer when trying to convey a dichotomy between her and Biden. Just put Walz had the forefront and have him do most of the interviews going forward. Walz is far more likable, comes across more honest and genuine and his policies are popular with dem voters. Harris is just not good interviews when it comes to selling herself to voters. Walz is literally the most popular person on either ticket, decisively so. It is insane that the Harris campaign has chosen not to prop him up more in the media. They need to be putting him in the spotlight. They also need to cut the leash around his neck. Let him talk about whatever because his base political instincts are good. But in his debate with Vance, it felt like he was caught in his head trying to cross a tightrope the campaign wants him to walk. For instance, her advisors telling him to cut out the "weird" rhetoric is ridiculous. It was a great line of attack that resonated without being overly fatalistic. Instead, they should let Walz be Walz. If they were going to kneecap him to this extent, they may as well have picked Josh Shapiro to be Kamala's VP. 6 1
GhostBox Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Blade said: Oh sorry are we not allowed to post this considering we got polls showing that the swing states are looking...swingy? Also those polls show Harris doing better in half of them compared to their last polls 😂 and it only going from +1 Harris to +1 Trump in 3nof them. Basically the same as before Edited October 10 by GhostBox 1
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted October 10 ATRL Moderator Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, Sannie said: Bipartisanship is objectively incredibly popular so her statement did not hurt her. The vast majority does not operate like leftists or MAGA (same thing) where they want a complete shut out of anyone who is different from them. I can see the argument for why she shouldn't be saying she won't be different from Biden, though. There needs to be greater focus on what separates them. Stop playing around and worrying about Biden and his administration's feelings. Who GAF about his feelings and decorum at this point? It's not. The average vote does not care about bipartisanship between two parties most Americans hate. The vast plurality of voters hate both parties, actually. The assumption that saying you "love Republicans" is appealing is not based in anything real. https://news.gallup.com/poll/24655/party-images.aspx This lack of approval is why Independent affiliation is the leading affiliation by double-digits. People don't like either party, so saying you like an unpopular party changes nothing. I'm not saying the average voter wants a socialist. People are bad about agreeing on what these political terms even mean (e.g., ask a leftist in here what "liberal" means and then go into the r/BenShapiro subreddit and ask them what "liberal" means). But, people want to feel like they're being heard and neither party provides that for the majority of people. 4 2
i spit on haters Posted October 10 Posted October 10 8 minutes ago, Sannie said: Bipartisanship is objectively incredibly popular so her statement did not hurt her. The vast majority does not operate like leftists or MAGA (same thing) where they want a complete shut out of anyone who is different from them. I can see the argument for why she shouldn't be saying she won't be different from Biden, though. There needs to be greater focus on what separates them. Stop playing around and worrying about Biden and his administration's feelings. Who GAF about his feelings and decorum at this point? ------ 1
dman4life Posted October 10 Posted October 10 And who exactly is her having a Republican in her cabinet supposed to appeal to? Dem voters think the Republicans are trash, Independents just want decent policy proposals they can get behind and "never Trump" Republicans just want Trump gone they don't actually plan on supporting Kamala through her presidency. So yeah she needs to focus on rallying the base and turning out the vote. 2
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Bloo said: It's not. The average vote does not care about bipartisanship between two parties most Americans hate. The vast plurality of voters hate both parties, actually. The assumption that saying you "love Republicans" is appealing is not based in anything real. https://news.gallup.com/poll/24655/party-images.aspx This lack of approval is why Independent affiliation is the leading affiliation by double-digits. People don't like either party, so saying you like an unpopular party changes nothing. I'm not saying the average voter wants a socialist. People are bad about agreeing on what these political terms even mean (e.g., ask a leftist in here what "liberal" means and then go into the r/BenShapiro subreddit and ask them what "liberal" means). But, people want to feel like they're being heard and neither party provides that for the majority of people. Yeah, I get what you're saying, but people do like bipartisanship... when it actually exists. But as always with the Democratic party, messaging is shite and they don't know how to leverage how big of a deal it actually is (nowadays) when they're able to accomplish things like passing the infrastructure bill despite so much division. 1 minute ago, dman4life said: And who exactly is her having a Republican in her cabinet supposed to appeal to? Dem voters think the Republicans are trash, Independents just want decent policy proposals they can get behind and "never Trump" Republicans just want Trump gone they don't actually plan on supporting Kamala through her presidency. So yeah she needs to focus on rallying the base and turning out the vote. Honestly, Arizonian (Arizonan?) swing voters. They're Republicans but don't like Trump. Edited October 10 by Sannie 1
Tovitov Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Blade said: The way the only things that have changed were the Quinnipiac polls and the entire TL is just this: Saying Trump is in the lead when all the models still say "toss up" The same thing happened a few weeks ago when that tied national Siena poll came out. Instead of just adding it to the pile, everyone had a meltdown. One poll shouldn't change anyone's perception of the race, yet here we are again. People having another meltdown because Quinnipiac showed Trump up within the MoE in two swing states. Edited October 10 by Tovitov 1
Elusive Chanteuse Posted October 10 Posted October 10 These internal polls have me very worried now. All my hope is gone :( 1
Sannie Posted October 10 Posted October 10 (edited) 1 minute ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: These internal polls have me very worried now. All my hope is gone :( I don't think we see internal polls, sis? That's why they're called internal lol. Edited October 10 by Sannie 2 3
Blade Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 minute ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: These internal polls have me very worried now. All my hope is gone :( Which internal polls?
Tovitov Posted October 10 Posted October 10 1 minute ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: These internal polls have me very worried now. All my hope is gone :( This isn't pointed directly at you by the way. I just wouldn't worry too much on unreleased internal polls that are usually released as a fundraising tactic. 3 2
ATRL Moderator Bloo Posted October 10 ATRL Moderator Posted October 10 5 minutes ago, Sannie said: Yeah, I get what you're saying, but people do like bipartisanship... when it actually exists. But as always with the Democratic party, messaging is shite and they don't know how to leverage how big of a deal it actually is (nowadays) when they're able to accomplish things like passing the infrastructure bill despite so much division. I disagree about bipartisanship and how people feel about it. I think, instead, people disapprove of hyper-partisanship. People don't like when politics feels like it's just a sports game and it's, "I hate Republicans and they're all Neo Nazis," and, "I hate Democrats and they drink the bloods of babies." If simply not falling into that trap is what you are referring to by "bipartisanship", then I see where you're coming from. But I just don't think that's a proper reflection of bipartisanship and is more so a rejection of hyper-partisanship. I hate hyper-partisanship of all forms. I hate when the MAGA crowd refuses to acknowledge Trump's lies and weaknesses. I hated when hyper-partisan Democrats (i.e., "Blue MAGA") refused to acknowledge that Biden was a mess in his debate with Trump and had to go if we want a shot at beating Trump. Hyper-partisanship sucks and I do think most people agree to that. But, plenty of bipartisan efforts have massive disapproval: the TikTok ban, handing out billions of dollars to Israel while FEMA is underfunded, giving corporations and the wealthy tax breaks, etc. People do not say, "Wow, I love that so much," simply because it's bipartisan. People will like something it feels like it benefits them and addresses their concerns. So, while I disagree with you, it could be just an artifact of us using different language to communicate on these issues. 4 3
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