Tovitov Posted September 29 Posted September 29 I dont want to do this for another month. I hate election season so much. 5
Communion Posted September 29 Posted September 29 (edited) Hmm.. On 8/17/2024 at 4:11 PM, Communion said: Her specific approach of trying to find some median voter that exists across all swing states will prove as the most difficult thing. Between AZ & NV alone: Arizona Nevada Breakdown Male Female Diff. Male Female Diff. White -6 -6 0 -19 -8 11 % of Voters 34% 40% 6% 30% 35% 5% Black N/A N/A N/A 45 76 31 % of Voters 1% 1% 0% 3% 4% 1% Latino 18 31 13 6 47 41 % of Voters 9% 9% 0% 8% 9% 1% Other N/A N/A 9% N/A % of Voters 5% -- 11% -- That Nevada is more non-white and more female of a electorate yet Dems seem to be doing worse now there than in Arizona is of interest. Reforming the Biden 2020 collation will basically be her goal to try and difficultly complete, so talks of rebuilding the Obama coalition is a little.. ddd. On 8/17/2024 at 3:31 PM, Communion said: Hispanic voters seem most impacted by gender polarization. Per CNN's 2020 exit polls: Biden won Nevada with +6 Latino Men but +47 Latino Women. Biden won Arizona with +18 Latino Men and +31 Latino Women. On 8/17/2024 at 6:02 PM, Communion said: If comparing the NYT 2020 Exit Polls for Nevada vs the NYT/Sienna recent cross-tabs: 2020 Independents: Biden +9 2024 Independents: Trump +6 (-15) 2020 Hispanic: Biden +23 2024 Hispanic: Harris +4 (-19) 2020 Non-White, No College Degree: Biden +30 2024 Non-White, No College Degree: Harris +8 (-22) Hmmm.... Edited September 29 by Communion 1 1
Communion Posted September 29 Posted September 29 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Armani? said: From the numbers this cycle, it would seem Gen Z Latinos has stayed stable at around 70% Dem & Gen X & Babyboomers Latinos moved rightward again if it's accurate NBC/Telemundo and NYT/Siena both capturing the same rightward trend is a bit....nerve-wracking. Edited September 29 by Communion 1
RihRihGirrrl Posted September 29 Posted September 29 Do we think there are internal polls being done in NV? I would think she would atleast make a visit to the state if her team saw it was at risk
tiejc Posted September 29 Posted September 29 1 minute ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Do we think there are internal polls being done in NV? I would think she would atleast make a visit to the state if her team saw it was at risk She's doing a rally in Vegas tonight. 1
Armani? Posted September 29 Posted September 29 57 minutes ago, Communion said: Hmm.. Hmmm.... Pew Research specifically didn't see any greater gender divide in 2022 midterms for Hispanic Men or any erosion for POC in general which seems a bit off, although it's still all within margin of error I suppose for slight changes. But it was very pronounced for Hispanic men in the normal midterm exit polling (-6) Also Gen Z Hispanic Men backed Democrats by 57% in 2022 in this source whereas Gen Z Hispanic women were at 79%, so I'm inclined to believe there was at least some erosion overall. https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-are-not-monolith-how-different-young-people-voted-2022 Quote Nearly six in ten (57%) young Latino men voted for a Democrat for the U.S. House. But maybe if Latinas keep moving left, it will cancel out the minor Trump gains with Hispanic men. Although this is only if older Latinas follow what Gen Z Latinas did Catalist showed no real difference in 2022 for the overall Hispanic Vote since 2020 either. I think in 2024, if Trump does gain it will only be a couple points at best. But that's still enough to flip Arizona. 2
RihRihGirrrl Posted September 29 Posted September 29 19 minutes ago, tiejc said: She's doing a rally in Vegas tonight. Oh good to know they're not ignoring NV....but could also mean they see trouble
Tovitov Posted September 29 Posted September 29 (edited) 9 minutes ago, RihRihGirrrl said: Oh good to know they're not ignoring NV....but could also mean they see trouble She was in AZ yesterday. No reason not to stop in NV. Edit: Could also be your idea though Edited September 29 by Tovitov
Lil Mistee Posted September 29 Posted September 29 Jeff flake endorsed Kamala was he a popular senator ?
Vermillion Posted September 29 Posted September 29 Ryan Lizza's genuinely a horrible person so I don't feel bad for any parties involved 1
Lil Mistee Posted September 29 Posted September 29 11 hours ago, Sannie said: Trump can be funny when he makes his crazy statements. Like, as racist as his cats and dogs comment was, out of context it's like a funny old man yelling at the clouds. JD Vance does not possess the charisma to be funny at all. If anything, if he has his own cats and dogs moment, he will come off as the Nazi he is. He won't be graded on a curve. Trump is really funny, I'm not afraid to say it, sleepy joe is so funny to me still please! but he's also an awful person and has no policies, he should stick to reality tv
shelven Posted September 29 Posted September 29 25 minutes ago, Lil Mistee said: Jeff flake endorsed Kamala was he a popular senator ? He served one term and won his election by a third of Romney's margin over Obama This endorsement won't do anything because the people this is meant to convince are the same type of people who are already voting for Harris because of McCain. 2 1
ZeroSuitBritney Posted September 29 Posted September 29 3 minutes ago, nooniebao said: Biden-Harris approved 3 2 2
ClashAndBurn Posted September 29 Posted September 29 6 hours ago, Sannie said: I need y'all to pls start reading the breakdowns of these polls before dooming over them. This Atlas poll is completely insane within its crosstabs. Harris literally has no power here. No democrat other than Biden does. All Kamala has are her words, which admittedly she's not using, but acting like she's the one calling any kind of shot makes no sense. Our only small glimmer of hope is the *possibility* that Harris takes a different route than Biden if she wins. There's no guarantee there, but at least there's a possibility. There's zero chance if Trump wins. Harris has given zero indication that she believes she should take a different approach than Biden has. She has declared Israel has the right to defend itself (which itself is code for "the right to do whatever they want) and has literally pledged unconditional support. That means there is ZERO leverage or reason to bring about a ceasefire because Israel will receive not just weapons shipments, but also diplomatic cover at the UN. The coming invasion of Lebanon is already being whitewashed as a righteous crusade, and Kamala will let Israel get away with invading Syria next. 4 1
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