news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[Sannie]

1 hour ago, CaptainMusic said:

Yeah I feel like Trump's gonna win at this point, and tbh the way Democrats continue to allow Israel to destroy Palestine and now Lebanon is making me sour on Kamala anyway. Trump will obviously be worse but it's still hard to ignore the atrocities that are happening at this point.
 

If she wins cool, if she loses then she'll only have herself to blame for alienating voters. 

I need y'all to pls start reading the breakdowns of these polls before dooming over them. This Atlas poll is completely insane within its crosstabs. 
 

Harris literally has no power here. No democrat other than Biden does. All Kamala has are her words, which admittedly she's not using, but acting like she's the one calling any kind of shot makes no sense. Our only small glimmer of hope is the *possibility* that Harris takes a different route than Biden if she wins. There's no guarantee there, but at least there's a possibility. There's zero chance if Trump wins. 

Edited 16 hours ago by Sannie

[dabunique]

I need a Florida poll. 

Edited 13 hours ago by dabunique

[Armani?]

Another bad poll, we need a LV for this though

 

[Vroom Vroom]

4 hours ago, CaptainMusic said:

Yeah I feel like Trump's gonna win at this point, and tbh the way Democrats continue to allow Israel to destroy Palestine and now Lebanon is making me sour on Kamala anyway. Trump will obviously be worse but it's still hard to ignore the atrocities that are happening at this point.
 

If she wins cool, if she loses then she'll only have herself to blame for alienating voters. 

In 1968, during LBJ's presidency, Nixon made a deal with the South Vietnamese government to sabotage LBJ's peace talk deals in the Vietnam war until after the presidential election to hurt Humphrey's chances 

 

In 1980, during the Carter presidency, Reagan made a deal with Iran to hold American hostages until after the presidential election to hurt Carter's chances

 

Now in 2024 the GOP is doing the same thing in Israel. No ceasefire deal will happen until after the election and big reason for that could be because of Trump pressuring Israel not to work with the Biden administration 

 

The past two times these strategies led to republican victories 

Edited 12 hours ago by Vroom Vroom

[Space Cowboy]

What stops 1 million californians to move to Texas rn and make sure no republican ever gets elected again 

[FameFatale]

 

[Armani?]

From the numbers this cycle, it would seem Gen Z Latinos has stayed stable at around 70% Dem & Gen X & Babyboomers Latinos moved rightward again if it's accurate

[shelven]

1 hour ago, Armani? said:

Another bad poll, we need a LV for this though

 

An RV poll when we're basically in October If you don't have the guts to set up an LV screen and stand by it, you shouldn't waste the money on polling. 

[on the line]

44 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

What stops 1 million californians to move to Texas rn and make sure no republican ever gets elected again 

Having to live in Texas regardless of the politics.

[Tovitov]

I dont want to do this for another month. I hate election season so much. 

[Vermillion]

 

[Communion]

 

Hmm..

 

On 8/17/2024 at 4:11 PM, Communion said:

Her specific approach of trying to find some median voter that exists across all swing states will prove as the most difficult thing. Between AZ & NV alone:

 

	Arizona			Nevada
Breakdown	Male	Female	Diff.	Male	Female	Diff.
White	-6	-6	0	-19	-8	11
% of Voters	34%	40%	6%	30%	35%	5%
Black	N/A	N/A	N/A	45	76	31
% of Voters	1%	1%	0%	3%	4%	1%
Latino	18	31	13	6	47	41
% of Voters	9%	9%	0%	8%	9%	1%
Other	N/A		N/A	9%		N/A
% of Voters	5%		--	11%		--

 

That Nevada is more non-white and more female of a electorate yet Dems seem to be doing worse now there than in Arizona is of interest.

Reforming the Biden 2020 collation will basically be her goal to try and difficultly complete, so talks of rebuilding the Obama coalition is a little.. ddd.

On 8/17/2024 at 3:31 PM, Communion said:

Hispanic voters seem most impacted by gender polarization. Per CNN's 2020 exit polls:

Biden won Nevada with +6 Latino Men but +47 Latino Women.

Biden won Arizona with +18 Latino Men and +31 Latino Women.

  

On 8/17/2024 at 6:02 PM, Communion said:

If comparing the NYT 2020 Exit Polls for Nevada vs the NYT/Sienna recent cross-tabs:

 

2020 Independents: Biden +9

2024 Independents: Trump +6 (-15)

 

2020 Hispanic: Biden +23

2024 Hispanic: Harris +4 (-19)

 

2020 Non-White, No College Degree: Biden +30

2024 Non-White, No College Degree: Harris +8 (-22)

Hmmm....

Edited 11 hours ago by Communion

[Vermillion]

 

[Communion]

54 minutes ago, Armani? said:

From the numbers this cycle, it would seem Gen Z Latinos has stayed stable at around 70% Dem & Gen X & Babyboomers Latinos moved rightward again if it's accurate

NBC/Telemundo and NYT/Siena both capturing the same rightward trend is a bit....nerve-wracking. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Communion

[RihRihGirrrl]

Do we think there are internal polls being done in NV? I would think she would atleast make a visit to the state if her team saw it was at risk 

[tiejc]

1 minute ago, RihRihGirrrl said:

Do we think there are internal polls being done in NV? I would think she would atleast make a visit to the state if her team saw it was at risk 

She's doing a rally in Vegas tonight.

[Armani?]

 

57 minutes ago, Communion said:

 

Hmm..

 

  

Hmmm....

Pew Research specifically didn't see any greater gender divide in 2022 midterms for Hispanic Men or any erosion for POC in general which seems a bit off, although it's still all within margin of error I suppose for slight changes.

But it was very pronounced for Hispanic men in the normal midterm exit polling (-6)

 

Also Gen Z Hispanic Men backed Democrats by 57% in 2022 in this source whereas Gen Z Hispanic women were at 79%, so I'm inclined to believe there was at least some erosion overall. 

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/youth-are-not-monolith-how-different-young-people-voted-2022

Quote

Nearly six in ten (57%) young Latino men voted for a Democrat for the U.S. House.

 

But maybe if Latinas keep moving left, it will cancel out the minor Trump gains with Hispanic men. Although this is only if older Latinas follow what Gen Z Latinas did

 

Catalist showed no real difference in 2022 for the overall Hispanic Vote since 2020 either. I think in 2024, if Trump does gain it will only be a couple points at best. But that's still enough to flip Arizona.

[nooniebao]

 

[RihRihGirrrl]

19 minutes ago, tiejc said:

She's doing a rally in Vegas tonight.

Oh good to know they're not ignoring NV....but could also mean they see trouble 

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

 

[Tovitov]

9 minutes ago, RihRihGirrrl said:

Oh good to know they're not ignoring NV....but could also mean they see trouble 

She was in AZ yesterday. No reason not to stop in NV. 

 

Edit: Could also be your idea though 

Edited 10 hours ago by Tovitov

[Vermillion]

 

[Vermillion]

 

[Lil Mistee]

Jeff flake endorsed Kamala was he a popular senator ?