GhostBox Posted September 29 Posted September 29 If Trump was doing that great in the Rust belt states right now he wouldn't be spending every campaign stop there and not the sunbelt states. That leads me to believe even their internal data shows him weak in WI, MI, and PA.
SignificantOther Posted September 29 Posted September 29 1 minute ago, GhostBox said: If Trump was doing that great in the Rust belt states right now he wouldn't be spending every campaign stop there and not the sunbelt states. That leads me to believe even their internal data shows him weak in WI, MI, and PA. His campaign strategists probably believe he has NC and GA on lock, and are fighting for PA to get him to 270.
Bears01 Posted September 29 Posted September 29 9 minutes ago, SignificantOther said: Imagine starting the night with Harris winning North Carolina and everyone thinking she won, and then Trump making a comeback and winning because of the rust belt where polls close later. A reverse 2020 where the results out of Miami dade county looked like the beginning of the apocalypse, then Ohio, then it looked like hell until Fox called AZ for Biden 2
GhostBox Posted September 29 Posted September 29 (edited) Unfortunately we are gonna be getting a few right leaning pollsters (Rasmussen and Trafalgar) releasing polls in the next few days too so it will ding the averages paired with these….. results 💀 Edited September 29 by GhostBox
shelven Posted September 29 Posted September 29 18 minutes ago, Rotunda said: I don't like to fully disregard polls for weird things in them unless they're very clearly hyper-partisan pollsters, but there is just absolutely no way Harris is running ahead of Rosen in Nevada, so something is definitely very off with whatever Atlas did here
Rotunda Posted September 29 Posted September 29 2 minutes ago, shelven said: I don't like to fully disregard polls for weird things in them unless they're very clearly hyper-partisan pollsters, but there is just absolutely no way Harris is running ahead of Rosen in Nevada, so something is definitely very off with whatever Atlas did here Harris ahead of Slotkin Harris ahead of Rosen Slotkin's only losing poll Unusually close margins for Gallego/Casey/Baldwin
HausOfPunk Posted September 29 Posted September 29 In 2020, Biden was leading Trump in the polls in PA by about 5-6 points on average, and went on to win the state by 1%. This time, Harris is leading Trump by only 1 point according to FiveThirtyEight. Isn't this really worrying? What am I missing? 1
Sannie Posted September 29 Posted September 29 2 minutes ago, HausOfPunk said: In 2020, Biden was leading Trump in the polls in PA by about 5-6 points on average, and went on to win the state by 1%. This time, Harris is leading Trump by only 1 point according to FiveThirtyEight. Isn't this really worrying? What am I missing? You're missing that it's 2024 now, sis, and the polling error may not automatically be in trump's favor. It's all a toss up nobody knows. 3
Bears01 Posted September 29 Posted September 29 35 minutes ago, Armani? said: Where are the crosstabs so I can criticize Is said she was tied with men in PA but losing women by 10 points…. Kinda like how the NYT poll of WI today had her losing with 18-29 by 18 points after having her winning them by like, 30 last month even Larry sabato had something to say about it And then there's this: 5
Rotunda Posted September 29 Posted September 29 3 minutes ago, HausOfPunk said: In 2020, Biden was leading Trump in the polls in PA by about 5-6 points on average, and went on to win the state by 1%. This time, Harris is leading Trump by only 1 point according to FiveThirtyEight. Isn't this really worrying? What am I missing? Polling errors are inconsistent across elections both in magnitude and direction, and there are fewer undecideds this time. We can't (or at least, aren't supposed to) assume polling errors based on past polling errors. Pollsters update their methodology between cycles. In general, major polling analysts don't believe there are any "alarm bells" based on non-polling data that would imply a major polling miss this time, but that doesn't mean the polling error isn't big enough to flip the map in favor of Trump. 3
19SLAYty9 Posted September 29 Posted September 29 10 minutes ago, HausOfPunk said: In 2020, Biden was leading Trump in the polls in PA by about 5-6 points on average, and went on to win the state by 1%. This time, Harris is leading Trump by only 1 point according to FiveThirtyEight. Isn't this really worrying? What am I missing? In 2020, pollsters would call people, get responses like "**** you! Trump 2020!" And hang up before finishing and the pollsters wouldn't include them bc they didn't finish the questions. This time they're included. Also in 2020, pollsters showed a much scarier situation for dems in the midterm that didn't end up happening bc they severely underrepresented the youth vote. I still believe the youth vote is being underrepresented this cycle. 3
Armani? Posted September 29 Posted September 29 35 minutes ago, Bears01 said: Don't let Charlie Kirk or the Republicans on twitter see that figure, might be their new talking point 2
GhostBox Posted September 29 Posted September 29 39 minutes ago, Bears01 said: Is said she was tied with men in PA but losing women by 10 points…. Kinda like how the NYT poll of WI today had her losing with 18-29 by 18 points after having her winning them by like, 30 last month even Larry sabato had something to say about it And then there's this: Basically tied with men but trailing Trump with women 💀
Sannie Posted September 29 Posted September 29 10 minutes ago, Armani? said: But I was promised trump is winning young men by a huge margin.
Mike91 Posted September 29 Posted September 29 When you dig deep into these polls you begin to realize they're likely bullshit. That's not to say all polling is wrong but we pretty much know what the demographics are going to look like on election day. If your poll is showing 46% black support for Trump, then you should already know something is off with it. 2 1
GhostBox Posted September 29 Posted September 29 9 minutes ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: Anyone else nervous for the VP debate? I'm a little nervous about it. JD is obviously gonna attack Tim about the "weapons I carried in war" drama that happened. I just hope Tim has a good response to that attack. maybe reiterating that he apologized for his statement coming off that way but the difference between him and JD is he he would never question someone's service to their question. No matter if they served 23 years like Tim or 4 years like JD. Then turn to attack Trump for trashing our veterans. 1
Rotunda Posted September 29 Posted September 29 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Elusive Chanteuse said: Anyone else nervous for the VP debate? Surprisingly no. Even if JD outtalks Walz he'll end up coming off like an *******. Edited September 29 by Rotunda 4
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