news 2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

[nooniebao]

 

 

[GhostBox]

Again we need to win this race. We can't let Trump pick 2 more judges. 

[shelven]

When the three PA polls end up being one dramatic Harris lead, one dramatic Trump lead, and one tie

[Lightbringer007]

 

 

 

 

[Relampago.]

The way I couldn't figure out why this was possible cause RI is so small  

 

 

 

[Sannie]

1 hour ago, Relampago. said:

In swing states she needs to win? Not in any of them, no?

 

Not that I care about averaging out the polls across battleground states either, but Trump is up in those by +.2 right now. 

 

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I use RCP to look at averages don't judge me it's easiest to navigate on mobile  

 

King, you using RCP puts so much into perspective. :jonny:

[GhostBox]

 

[Sannie]

58 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

Again we need to win this race. We can't let Trump pick 2 more judges. 

Just read up on this story and oh, my god. They just executed him despite everyone involved casting serious doubt on his conviction. This is the America the GOP and leftists want. 

[shelven]

The underrated story of this polling cycle for me continues to be the weird gap we're consistently seeing between the head-to-head polls and the net favourability ratings of the candidates. A few of the polls which show a tight national head-to-head also show tight favourability ratings (like today's Quinnipiac poll and the most recent NYT national poll), but it feels like we're getting a lot of polls which are simultaneously showing a tight race and a big favourability gap. CNN's poll has a tied race among registered voters, but among those same registered voters, Harris does 8 points better in net favourability than Trump.

 

It's puzzling me because it feels really contradictory to basic human psychology. People generally support the things they like and don't support the things they dislike. And the reverse is also true - if you support something, you'll usually reverse-engineer your way to liking it, and if you're against something, you'll reverse-engineer your way to disliking it. I'm just having a very hard time wrapping my head around there being a sizeable amount of voters who like Harris, dislike Trump, but plan to vote for Trump anyways.

 

The way I see it, there's two possible explanations:

 

1. There's some weird weighting choices going on here. Either the favourability question is being weighted differently to the head-to-head question, or some other weighting decision is causing the small number of "I like Harris more than Trump but I'm voting Trump anyways" voters to be disproportionately represented in the head-to-heads.

 

2. There really is a meaningful number of people who plan to vote for Trump notwithstanding that they dislike him as a person and that they like Harris as a person. I guess the theory here would be that these voters have bought into the idea that Trump is better for the economy and will bring things back to pre-COVID times, so even though they dislike him and think Harris is a better person, they're reluctantly voting for Trump anyways singularly because of the economy. Again, it's a theory I have a hard time with because it's not really how human nature works (if someone thinks Trump is better for the economy, 95% of the time they'll cognitive dissonance themselves into deciding they like him), but if he ultimately wins, I guess it was true after all. 

[ZeroSuitBritney]

Imagine Harris losing PA after running against banning fracking to exclusively win PA

[GhostBox]

 

[YellowRibbon]

Calling it now, Harris wins ALL 7 swing states + either Florida OR Texas

[woohoo]

I've pretty much given up. This is 2016 all over again. I am not getting my hopes up at all. I think this is the last election I'm gonna be invested in it's so mentally draining. I may do quick check ins but I'm gonna get all brand new social media accounts to reset my algorithm to avoid politics and ive already decided I'm not phone banking and door knocking anymore. It's quite depressing but I'm beat down and tired. Fox News and social media have quite literally ruined an entire electorate. We lost democracy the second we got amy Barrett and it's just gonna get worse from here. 

[dabunique]

1 hour ago, GhostBox said:

Again we need to win this race. We can't let Trump pick 2 more judges. 

Once again Trump's influence 

[Sannie]

2 hours ago, Relampago. said:

Streets are saying the PA polls tomorrow are 2 tied, and Trump +1 for the last one

 

The streets are me.

[Relampago.]

9 minutes ago, YellowRibbon said:

Calling it now, Harris wins ALL 7 swing states + either Florida OR Texas

I said this last night minus the Blexas/Blorida addition (or that Trump will take all swing states except NV hihi)

 

If she does by some miracle somehow take either Texas or Florida, I kinda hope it's Florida. The crisis that would happen if Texas suddenly went blue would be uhh… something to say the least. 

[ZeroSuitBritney]

9 minutes ago, dabunique said:

Once again Trump's influence 

True but also the Democratic Party has removed abolishing the death penalty from their agenda. 

[dabunique]

 

[Communion]

36 minutes ago, Sannie said:

This is the America the GOP and leftists want. 

ddd sis that's not who's getting blamed on Twitter for this.

 

Genuinely heartbreaking that Harris would abandon abolishing the death penalty as such Injustices continue in our lives.

 

Horrifically unforced error on her and the Dems' part. What Dem-leaning indies are passionately pro-executions???

Edited September 25 by Communion

[Sannie]

27 minutes ago, shelven said:

The underrated story of this polling cycle for me continues to be the weird gap we're consistently seeing between the head-to-head polls and the net favourability ratings of the candidates. A few of the polls which show a tight national head-to-head also show tight favourability ratings (like today's Quinnipiac poll and the most recent NYT national poll), but it feels like we're getting a lot of polls which are simultaneously showing a tight race and a big favourability gap. CNN's poll has a tied race among registered voters, but among those same registered voters, Harris does 8 points better in net favourability than Trump.

 

It's puzzling me because it feels really contradictory to basic human psychology. People generally support the things they like and don't support the things they dislike. And the reverse is also true - if you support something, you'll usually reverse-engineer your way to liking it, and if you're against something, you'll reverse-engineer your way to disliking it. I'm just having a very hard time wrapping my head around there being a sizeable amount of voters who like Harris, dislike Trump, but plan to vote for Trump anyways.

 

The way I see it, there's two possible explanations:

 

1. There's some weird weighting choices going on here. Either the favourability question is being weighted differently to the head-to-head question, or some other weighting decision is causing the small number of "I like Harris more than Trump but I'm voting Trump anyways" voters to be disproportionately represented in the head-to-heads.

 

2. There really is a meaningful number of people who plan to vote for Trump notwithstanding that they dislike him as a person and that they like Harris as a person. I guess the theory here would be that these voters have bought into the idea that Trump is better for the economy and will bring things back to pre-COVID times, so even though they dislike him and think Harris is a better person, they're reluctantly voting for Trump anyways singularly because of the economy. Again, it's a theory I have a hard time with because it's not really how human nature works (if someone thinks Trump is better for the economy, 95% of the time they'll cognitive dissonance themselves into deciding they like him), but if he ultimately wins, I guess it was true after all. 

I keep thinking about the confusing nature of this as well and have to stop because it hurts my brain. The idea that she is so much more liked but people who like her won't vote for her doesn't make sense to me so I'm going to believe in the end her net favorability will help her win.

[Blade]

 

[FameFatale]

 

[Rotunda]

22 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I've pretty much given up. This is 2016 all over again. I am not getting my hopes up at all. I think this is the last election I'm gonna be invested in it's so mentally draining. I may do quick check ins but I'm gonna get all brand new social media accounts to reset my algorithm to avoid politics and ive already decided I'm not phone banking and door knocking anymore. It's quite depressing but I'm beat down and tired. Fox News and social media have quite literally ruined an entire electorate. We lost democracy the second we got amy Barrett and it's just gonna get worse from here. 

What Michelle said

[dabunique]

 

[Relampago.]

15 minutes ago, woohoo said:

I've pretty much given up. This is 2016 all over again. I am not getting my hopes up at all. I think this is the last election I'm gonna be invested in it's so mentally draining. I may do quick check ins but I'm gonna get all brand new social media accounts to reset my algorithm to avoid politics and ive already decided I'm not phone banking and door knocking anymore. It's quite depressing but I'm beat down and tired. Fox News and social media have quite literally ruined an entire electorate. We lost democracy the second we got amy Barrett and it's just gonna get worse from here. 

Join the #TrumpWins team sis  

 

No, but really even though I think Trump is still the favorite it's not 2016, let alone 2020. The factors just don't seem to be there for that to be the case this time. Less undecideds, Trump's polling looking like his 2020 share of the vote, Harris hitting 50% in some polls (Trump too), Harris is the more "unknown" candidate so undecideds might break for her instead of Trump this time, EC bias is down, etc. 
 

Imo the polls showing that it's a close race is a good thing, despite how it makes people nervous because of how bad the polling error was. It **probably** means they're more accurate this time, or even overestimating Trump. And to be honest, I believe that if anyone is being underestimated, it's Harris, not Trump. The polls are skewed in his favor for so many pollsters this time, so they may be overestimating his support in fear of a 2016/2020 redux, but the same isn't really true for Harris's polling. 

 

My prediction that Trump wins is based off him winning with slim, slim margins in the swing states. If anyone gets a comfortable win in terms of margins, I expect it'll be Harris, not Trump. But this is probably nothing like 2016 or 2020, so if that's your only concern then don't worry.