GhostBox Posted September 24 Posted September 24 Just now, Blade said: It's weird how alot of the signs point to this being almost identical to 2020 💀 yet others show it's not 😂 I don't think we will ever know till close to Election Day
WildAmerican Posted September 24 Posted September 24 2 hours ago, midnightdawn said: The vice presidential debate scheduled for next Tuesday between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will be the most important such meeting in U.S. history, according to one presidential historian. "I know everybody is waiting on Pennsylvania, North Carolina is really interesting, that Harris has a chance of winning there — but the big moment is Oct. 1," Douglas Brinkley said during an appearance on "Morning Joe" on MSNBC. "It's going to be the most important vice presidential debate, I think, in U.S. history, when we put Walz against Vance. That's coming our way, and it may be the last chance [former President] Trump has if somehow Vance can score points and get an edge out of that." x i can't stress how much the vp debate will not matter 3
midnightdawn Posted September 24 Posted September 24 Just now, WildAmerican said: i can't stress how much the vp debate will not matter If it's an extremely tight election it could. 2000 came down to a few hundred votes. 1
Armani? Posted September 24 Posted September 24 19 minutes ago, Blade said: Isn't this before the debate?
WildAmerican Posted September 24 Posted September 24 6 minutes ago, Relampago. said: real numbers come out Sunday Spoiler this is why BlueMaga idiots on twitter make me scream, they think Harris is just gonna run away with it 1 2
Rotunda Posted September 24 Posted September 24 (edited) 3 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said: My point is that Dem voters are motivated by vibes rather than policy. Kamala is showing that if she ran on Trump's policies from 2016, voters would not care enough to pay attention. And in the end, what we are doing is slowly boiling the frog. Voters don't even realize that what little was achieved with the utterly pathetic Obamacare would be considered a leftist pipe dream and, as Sannie would deem it, an entirely unreasonable demand that "flies to close to the sun" if it were attempted today. If Dems are motivated by vibes rather than policy, why would they be reflexively against policy that is to the left of the status quo? Doesn't your conceptualization of the electorate just require someone to package those policies under the correct vibe? Or are you saying Dems are obsessed with a specific posture of centrism (regardless of policy) and anything they read as not committed to that is reflexively declined? Edited September 24 by Rotunda 2
Tovitov Posted September 24 Posted September 24 The 2012 VP debate arguably helped Obama. Biden thrashed Paul Ryan so hard that it allowed the campaign to move on from the first disaster of a debate. 3 1
GhostBox Posted September 24 Posted September 24 12 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I mean we all knew and still know this years election environment is favorable to the gop. the fact it's a 50/50 race and sometimes slightly leaning Harris shows the gop have almost fumbled a race that shouldn't be close. but they nominated Trump. So yea 💀
GhostBox Posted September 24 Posted September 24 Just now, Blade said: Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🤷
GhostBox Posted September 24 Posted September 24 if statements like this alone don't get you to vote against him and for Harris nothing will. 🤷 1
Tovitov Posted September 24 Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🤷 I'd wadger one is a massive outlier and the other two are within the MoE. 1
Relampago. Posted September 24 Posted September 24 Streets are saying the PA polls tomorrow are 2 tied, and Trump +1 for the last one The streets are me. 8
Relampago. Posted September 24 Posted September 24 2 hours ago, Blade said: Girl I know it's not irrelevant but national polling data rarely does anything for me. I mean it's nice that EC bias is likely down and +4 is probably enough for Kamala to have an alright win, but it doesn't matter at the end of the day. With the Sun Belt (minus NV) still looking like it's leaning Trump and with PA still in limbo, Kamala had a few good state polls but it went right back down to tightening. The debate bump might be lasting nationwide, but it's fading in the state polls. Probably because these swing states are being bombarded with so many events, visits and ads that it's wiping their memory every time something big happens.
Rotunda Posted September 24 Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, Relampago. said: I know it's not irrelevant but national polling data rarely does anything for me. I mean it's nice that EC bias is likely down and +4 is probably enough for Kamala to have an alright win, but it doesn't matter at the end of the day. With the Sun Belt (minus NV) still looking like it's leaning Trump and with PA still in limbo, Kamala had a few good state polls but it went right back down to tightening. The debate bump might be lasting nationwide, but it's fading in the state polls. Probably because these swing states are being bombarded with so many events, visits and ads that it's wiping their memory every time something big happens. Isn't her state poll average better than her national poll average…?
Relampago. Posted September 24 Posted September 24 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Rotunda said: Isn't her state poll average better than her national poll average…? In swing states she needs to win? Not in any of them, no? Not that I care about averaging out the polls across battleground states either, but Trump is up in those by +.2 right now. Spoiler I use RCP to look at averages don't judge me it's easiest to navigate on mobile Edited September 24 by Relampago.
Rotunda Posted September 24 Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, Relampago. said: In swing states she needs to win? Not in any of them, no? Not that I care about averaging out the polls across battleground states either, but Trump is up in those by +.2 right now. Reveal hidden contents I use RCP to look at averages don't judge me it's easiest to navigate on mobile Referring to this. Obviously her swing state polling average is going to be tighter than her national polling average. 2
Redstreak Posted September 24 Posted September 24 41 minutes ago, GhostBox said: Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🤷 I read these as good for Harris but remember overall averages still make this close so don't get too excited 1
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