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2024 US Election Megathread πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ›οΈ


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Posted
Just now, Blade said:

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It's weird how alot of the signs point to this being almost identical to 2020 πŸ’€ yet others show it's not πŸ˜‚

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I don't think we will ever know till close to Election DayΒ 

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Posted
2 hours ago, midnightdawn said:

The vice presidential debate scheduled for next Tuesday between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will be the most important such meeting in U.S. history, according to one presidential historian.

"I know everybody isΒ waiting on Pennsylvania, NorthΒ Carolina is really interesting,Β that Harris has a chance ofΒ winning there β€” but the bigΒ moment is Oct. 1," Douglas Brinkley said during an appearance on "Morning Joe" on MSNBC. "It's goingΒ to be the most important viceΒ presidential debate, I think, inΒ U.S. history, when we put WalzΒ against Vance.Β That's coming our way, and it mayΒ be the last chance [former President] Trump has ifΒ somehow Vance can score pointsΒ and get an edge out of that."

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i can't stress how much the vp debate will not matterΒ :dies:

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Posted
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Posted
Just now, WildAmerican said:

i can't stress how much the vp debate will not matterΒ :dies:

If it's an extremely tight election it could. 2000 came down to a few hundred votes.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Blade said:

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Isn't this before the debate?

Posted
6 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

real numbers come out SundayΒ Β :clack:

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Spoiler

this is why BlueMaga idiots on twitter make me scream, they think Harris is just gonna run away with it:eli:

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ClashAndBurn said:

My point is that Dem voters are motivated by vibes rather than policy. Kamala is showing that if she ran on Trump's policies from 2016, voters would not care enough to pay attention. And in the end, what we are doing is slowly boiling the frog. Voters don't even realize that what little was achieved with the utterly pathetic Obamacare would be considered a leftist pipe dream and, as Sannie would deem it, an entirely unreasonable demand that "flies to close to the sun" if it were attempted today.

If Dems are motivated by vibes rather than policy, why would they be reflexively against policy that is to the left of the status quo? Doesn't your conceptualization of the electorate just require someone to package those policies under the correct vibe?

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Or are you saying Dems are obsessed with a specific posture of centrism (regardless of policy) and anything they read as not committed to that is reflexively declined?Β 

Edited by Rotunda
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Posted

The 2012 VP debate arguably helped Obama. Biden thrashed Paul Ryan so hard that it allowed the campaign to move on from the first disaster of a debate.Β 

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Posted

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

I mean we all knew and still know this years election environment is favorable to the gop.Β 
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the fact it's a 50/50 race and sometimes slightly leaning Harris shows the gop have almost fumbled a race that shouldn't be close.Β 
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but they nominated Trump. So yea πŸ’€

Posted
Just now, Blade said:

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Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🀷

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if statements like this alone don't get you to vote against him and for Harris nothing will. 🀷

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Posted
4 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🀷

I'd wadger one is a massive outlier and the other two are within the MoE.Β 

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Posted
1 hour ago, GhostBox said:

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OMG 😱😱😱😱😱

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Streets are saying the PA polls tomorrow are 2 tied, and Trump +1 for the last one

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The streets are me.

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Posted

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Posted
2 hours ago, Blade said:

Girl

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I know it's not irrelevant but national polling data rarely does anything for me. I mean it's nice that EC bias is likely down and +4 is probably enough for Kamala to have an alright win, but it doesn't matter at the end of the day.

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With the Sun Belt (minus NV) still looking like it's leaning Trump and with PA still in limbo, Kamala had a few good state polls but it went right back down to tightening. The debate bump might be lasting nationwide, but it's fading in the state polls. Probably because these swing states are being bombarded with so many events, visits and ads that it's wiping their memory every time something big happens.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

I know it's not irrelevant but national polling data rarely does anything for me. I mean it's nice that EC bias is likely down and +4 is probably enough for Kamala to have an alright win, but it doesn't matter at the end of the day.

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With the Sun Belt (minus NV) still looking like it's leaning Trump and with PA still in limbo, Kamala had a few good state polls but it went right back down to tightening. The debate bump might be lasting nationwide, but it's fading in the state polls. Probably because these swing states are being bombarded with so many events, visits and ads that it's wiping their memory every time something big happens.

Isn't her state poll average better than her national poll average…?

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When she's good she's good πŸ‘πŸΌ

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Rotunda said:

Isn't her state poll average better than her national poll average…?

In swing states she needs to win? Not in any of them, no?

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Not that I care about averaging out the polls across battleground states either, but Trump is up in those by +.2 right now.Β 

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Spoiler

I use RCP to look at averages don't judge me it's easiest to navigate on mobile :monkey:Β 

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Edited by Relampago.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Relampago. said:

In swing states she needs to win? Not in any of them, no?

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Not that I care about averaging out the polls across battleground states either, but Trump is up in those by +.2 right now.Β 

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Β  Reveal hidden contents

I use RCP to look at averages don't judge me it's easiest to navigate on mobile :monkey:Β 

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Referring to this. Obviously her swing state polling average is going to be tighter than her national polling average.Β 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, GhostBox said:

Hmm so trumps head in 1 or 2 of them and Harris ahead in 1 is my guess 🀷

I read these as good for Harris but remember overall averages still make this close so don't get too excited

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