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2024 US Election Megathread 🇺🇸🏛️

khalyan

By khalyan
in Civics

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Lee!!
Message added by Lee!!,

It was decided based on feedback from the spring 2023 town hall to transition this thread back to being election specific. With the Civics section being able to house specific threads on many issues, we think having a generalized politics thread is not completely necessarily anymore. 
 

With that said, please continue to be respectful and remember that you do not always need to respond to everyone. 

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Bears01 Grand Master

Bears01

Posted
Posted

The Marist poll being basically in line with 2020…

 

We're in for a nerve wrecking night on 11/5. BUT. It's good to see her consistently getting 49-50% in a lot of these state and national polls. It shows she's pretty clearly in the lead. Did Hillary ever clear 50% in a lot of state and national polls? @Vermillion I would love for you to bring the data love, if you could 

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Raspberries Mentor

Raspberries

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:deadbanana: 

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Redstreak Veteran

Redstreak

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1 hour ago, Raspberries said:

 

:deadbanana: 

Wtf is going on with polls :ahh: 

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Armani? Grand Master

Armani?

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Siena is likely getting a rating penalty after this election because those national polls :rip:

 

Pennsylvania +4 ain't happening either:rip:

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Harriser Veteran

Harriser

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1 hour ago, Raspberries said:

 

:deadbanana: 

not this reverse electoral college popular vote split experience :ahh:the polls theyre losing it your honour

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Wonderland Mentor

Wonderland

Posted
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There was an interesting discussion on The Bulwark the other day with someone from Cook about why Pennsylvania seems to be the midwestern state the Trump camp are targeting so heavily. 

 

I can't remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, but election polling showed that Trump performed significantly better with college educated white voters in Pennsylvania compared to Wisconsin and Michigan. Given this is one of his weaker demographics, they're banking on PA being easier to flip if they can hold their college educated white vote in 2024.

 

 

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

Posted
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That left column :smitten: Oh, Rust Belt, we love you. 

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Tovitov Proficient

Tovitov

Posted
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For weeks we've had no polls :gaycat6:

 

Today, all the polls :gaycat2:

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Sannie Grand Master

Sannie

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2 hours ago, Raspberries said:

 

:deadbanana: 

Dddddddd a 4+ lead in PA would be a landslide nationally for Harris. What's going on?

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Tovitov Proficient

Tovitov

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sannie said:

Dddddddd a 4+ lead in PA would be a landslide nationally for Harris. What's going on?

"In theory"

 

They're both in their margin of error ranges. 

 

It would make more sense to flip these results though :gaycat5:

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WildAmerican Grand Master

WildAmerican

Posted
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2 hours ago, Raspberries said:

 

:deadbanana: 

i love the PA poll but the other one is blurry and I can't see it so idk anyways :gaygacat3:

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Vermillion Grand Master

Vermillion

Posted
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Where the national coverage has been the last two months on this is beyond me but whatever…

 

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Vermillion Grand Master

Vermillion

Posted
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4 hours ago, Bears01 said:

The Marist poll being basically in line with 2020…

 

We're in for a nerve wrecking night on 11/5. BUT. It's good to see her consistently getting 49-50% in a lot of these state and national polls. It shows she's pretty clearly in the lead. Did Hillary ever clear 50% in a lot of state and national polls? @Vermillion I would love for you to bring the data love, if you could 

As you know, I don't really care about national polls anymore, only battleground. Nationally, Hillary broke 50% in quite a few of them :coffee2: 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

 

In the battleground polling, someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I only recall Hillary crossing 50% once and that was in Michigan in June.

 

I don't trust RCP's battleground averages towards the end here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html

 

And for the record, I'm still predicting Kamala loses the Electoral College and the polling indicates it's within the margin or error. It will come down to one (maybe two) of the three blue wall states that she won't carry, by a sliver. The question is which one.

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shelven Veteran

shelven

Posted
Posted

Yeah polling is truly a mess this cycle. Let's just hope it's a mess in our faviur I guess :deadbanana:

 

Although I have to say it would be the most hilarious outcome possible if NYT's reverse electoral college split was actually accurate because Trump's inexplicable campaigning in NY causes that state to tighten significantly and gives Trump a boost in the national popular vote while not helping him at all in the Rust Belt states :dies:

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Armani? Grand Master

Armani?

Posted
Posted

 

Crosstabs GA with leaners

Women 53% Kamala/45% Trump

Age 18 - 29  55% Kamala/44% Trump

WHITE 70% Trump/29% Kamala (594 sample)

BLACK - 87% Kamala/ 11% Trump (282 sample)

HISPANIC - 56% Kamala/44% Trump

(69 sample)

Spoiler

ASIAN 48% Kamala/44% Trump 

(17 sample)

OTHER POC

64% Trump/ 27% Kamala

(14 sample)

 

Crosstabs NC with leaners

Women 52% Kamala/48% Trump

Age 18 - 29 62% Kamala/38% Trump

WHITE 65% Trump/ 34% Kamala

(657 sample)

BLACK 89% Kamala/ 10% Trump

(241 sample)

Spoiler

HISPANIC 54% Kamala/46% Trump

(45 sample)

ASIAN 71% Kamala/30%Trump

(27 sample)

OTHER POC 50% Trump/48% Kamala

(30 sample)

Crosstabs MI with leaners

Women 56% Kamala/44% Trump

Age 18 - 29  60% Kamala/39% Trump

WHITE 55%Trump/44% Kamala (679 sample)

BLACK 86%Kamala/ 14% Trump Trump

(110 sample)

Spoiler

HISPANIC 62% Kamala/37% Trump (26 sample)

ASIAN 52% Trump/45% Kamala (20 sample)

OTHER POC 51% Kamala/ 46% Trump (39 sample)

Crosstabs AZ with leaners

Women 50% Kamala/ 48% Trump

Age 18 - 29  67% Kamala/27% Trump

WHITE 51% Trump/47% Kamala (618 sample)

HISPANIC 53% Kamala/47% Trump

(162 sample)

Spoiler

OTHER POC 62% Trump/30% Kamala (46 sample)

BLACK 91% Kamala/9% Trump (23 sample)

ASIAN 51% Kamala/49% Trump

(19 sample)

 

Crosstabs PA with leaners

Women 54% Kamala/45% Trump

Age 18 - 29  65% Kamala/33% Trump

WHITE 56% Trump/43% Kamala (706) sample

BLACK 86% Kamala/ 14% Trump (106 sample)

Spoiler

HISPANIC 66% Kamala/32% Trump (40 sample)

ASIAN 63% Kamala/37% Trump (13 sample)

OTHER POC 52% Kamala/41% Trump (16 sample)

 

Crosstabs WI with leaners

Women 55% Kamala/45% Trump

Age 18 - 29  60% Kamala/39% Trump

WHITE 53% Trump/46% Kamala 

(865 sample)

BLACK 89% Kamala/10% Trump (67 sample)

Spoiler

HISPANIC 

54% Kamala/43% Trump (40 sample)

ASIAN 51% Kamala/49% Trump (13 sample)

OTHER POC 73% Trump/27% Kamala (15 sample)

The Nevada coding is broken, I'm too lazy to get the #s:skull:

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dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

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Bears01 Grand Master

Bears01

Posted
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48 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

As you know, I don't really care about national polls anymore, only battleground. Nationally, Hillary broke 50% in quite a few of them :coffee2: 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

 

In the battleground polling, someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I only recall Hillary crossing 50% once and that was in Michigan in June.

 

I don't trust RCP's battleground averages towards the end here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html

 

And for the record, I'm still predicting Kamala loses the Electoral College and the polling indicates it's within the margin or error. It will come down to one (maybe two) of the three blue wall states that she won't carry, by a sliver. The question is which one.

Your predictions in 2022 were wrong, so keep that negative energy (I love you, I I just am hoping you jinx it for the sake of my sanity) 

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dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

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Vermillion Grand Master

Vermillion

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bears01 said:

Your predictions in 2022 were wrong, so keep that negative energy (I love you, I I just am hoping you jinx it for the sake of my sanity) 

Correct, they were, almost solely based on the intensity of the Dobbs backlash being greater than I predicted.

 

As I addressed earlier, the question comes down to whether there's still enough of that intensity for this cycle and not just in states with those referendums AND whether it can overcome ticket splitting to not pick candidates opposed to said referendums while also voting for said referendums.

 

And this is not remotely PC to say, but on that last point, on multiple issues, the Cubans are a lost cause. So to all the Floridians here, including @dabunique, good ****ing luck. :ace: 

 

 

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dabunique Grand Master

dabunique

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Vermillion said:

Correct, they were, almost solely based on the intensity of the Dobbs backlash being greater than I predicted.

 

As I addressed earlier, the question comes down to whether there's still enough of that intensity for this cycle and not just in states with those referendums AND whether it can overcome ticket splitting to not pick candidates opposed to said referendums while also voting for said referendums.

 

And this is not remotely PC to say, but on that last point, on multiple issues, the Cubans are a lost cause. So to all the Floridians here, including @dabunique, good ****ing luck. :ace: 

 

 

yes we are a phuckin lost case 

 

i'm fighting family members left and right

 

#CubansforKamala

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